UFC · resolved market
Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4f186e9ea6046840639fefcb9daa0f191d0d0462d1c462ceb0041343e2762666
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,862
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,314
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,862 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdb27…c56ebacked No | 73c | 2,292$1,673 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$618.8 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed No | 74c | 1,446$1,070 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$375.97 | 420 | 42.6%179 W · 241 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53ab…65aabacked No | 71c | 699.96$497 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.99 | 238 | 50.4%120 W · 118 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30b8…f41fbacked No | 71c | 641.34$453 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.82 | 77 | 36.4%28 W · 49 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f5f…1695backed Yes | 26c | 384.62$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e49…ae9dbacked Yes | 29c | 344.83$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9889…2247backed Yes | 29c | 344.83$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74e0…af4bbacked Yes | 29c | 344.83$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3cda…6e17backed No | 70c | 293.53$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.06 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +2.4wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8903…63c8backed No | 70c | 243.57$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.98 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc356…1c77backed Yes | 26c | 234.58$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.99 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32d6…844bbacked No | 72c | 212$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.36 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c86…6993backed Yes | 25c | 203.44$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.83 | 235 | 37%87 W · 148 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8af2…0d0cbacked Yes | 26c | 188.38$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9034…f7dfbacked Yes | 26c | 182.55$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.46 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | -3.2wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa978…5801backed Yes | 29c | 161.07$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d4f…bdfabacked No | 75c | 150$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +3.5wins | +0.18per pick | 45cpaid | +60.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfaa0…441abacked Yes | 30c | 150$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa65b…b0c0backed No | 72c | 135$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.8 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 64cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea81…30b5backed Yes | 26c | 134.62$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 283 | 33.2%94 W · 189 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0210…d43ebacked Yes | 28c | 134.35$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x54f5…9093backed Yes | 30c | 131.26$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85da…13b9backed Yes | 25c | 130.84$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.71 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -3.8wins | -0.16per pick | 53cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7483…96a6backed Yes | 28c | 121$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.67 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a5…9b72backed No | 73c | 120$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.19 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +87.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b59…1c31backed Yes | 29c | 120$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e5f…1dc6backed Yes | 29c | 117.24$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6468…e03dbacked Yes | 28c | 117$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.76 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9981…2d71backed Yes | 26c | 115.38$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5159…d7aebacked No | 69c | 109.4$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.91 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1393…8392backed No | 72c | 104$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.12 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +46.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb637…4c42backed Yes | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.92 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6da…7e3ebacked Yes | 29c | 99.26$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.12 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -2.8wins | -0.28per pick | 38cpaid | -83.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaa5f…3de3backed No | 72c | 92$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.76 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3fa2…6f8cbacked No | 72c | 91$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.48 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x309d…3a8abacked No | 72c | 90$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34b…2f86backed Yes | 28c | 89$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.92 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6ea…3235backed Yes | 29c | 86.21$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd872…3c65backed Yes | 47c | 85.25$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee4…3337backed Yes | 26c | 76.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x289a…4c3ebacked Yes | 26c | 76.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ffb…840abacked Yes | 26c | 76.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +19%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fed…0d78backed No | 72c | 74$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.72 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x315a…b24cbacked Yes | 28c | 71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.73 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca4c…2477backed Yes | 29c | 68.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x676c…2d3bbacked Yes | 29c | 68.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -28%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x92f0…25fabacked Yes | 29c | 68.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e7c…70d8backed Yes | 30c | 66.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x103d…b4a9backed Yes | 34c | 66.12$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.56 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.8wins | -0.35per pick | 47cpaid | -83.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc880…a622backed No | 72c | 63$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.64 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 61cpaid | +71.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x55fb…07e1backed Yes | 40c | 62.5$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.32per pick | 65cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d78…f480backed Yes | 36c | 55.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8655…0853backed Yes | 28c | 54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f16…0246backed Yes | 63c | 51.97$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.89 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b43…4e59backed Yes | 29c | 51.72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2e7…40c2backed No | 74c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1102…af36backed No | 64c | 48.11$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.32 | 487 | 49.1%239 W · 248 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8380…1866backed Yes | 28c | 47$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.16 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…042fbacked Yes | 28c | 46$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.88 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.30per pick | 55cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 25c | 43.12$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.78 | 194 | 18.6%36 W · 158 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefbf…79f6backed No | 75c | 42$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.62 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed99…28bdbacked Yes | 29c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52cc…9998backed Yes | 28c | 39$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x491a…27ccbacked Yes | 30c | 38.65$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd5f…42a6backed Yes | 29c | 37.93$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -60%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae91…0f69backed No | 74c | 31.08$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.08 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 74cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03ac…4f55backed No | 65c | 30.28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.6 | 267 | 43.8%117 W · 150 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd21…9a10backed No | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x699c…3600backed No | 75c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…ecf3backed No | 72c | 22$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.16 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6149…8a58backed No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 73 | 39.7%29 W · 44 L | -5.8wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?this page
- Fight to Go the Distance?Yes won
- Maddalena Parlay - Maddalena Wins by KO, TKO, or DQ & Over 1.5 RoundsNo won
- Makhachev Parlay - Islam Wins Submission & Fight Lasts Over 2.5 RoundsNo won
- O/U 0.5 RoundsOver won
- O/U 1.5 RoundsOver won
- O/U 2.5 RoundsOver won
- O/U 3.5 RoundsOver won
- O/U 4.5 RoundsOver won
- UFC 322: Makhachev vs. Della Maddalena (Welterweight, Main Card)Makhachev won
- Will Islam Makhachev win by KO or TKO?No won
- Will Jack Della Maddalena win by KO or TKO?No won
- Will the fight be won by submission?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.