UFC · resolved market
O/U 1.5 Rounds
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb03a5dcbe02c8d69be148854e1493d789020027baa45abeb1ead63959e37da86
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,639
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,858
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,639 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Under | 21c | 2,122$447 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$446.77 | 420 | 42.6%179 W · 241 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76ed…fa48backed Under | 19c | 340.73$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.79 | 111 | 40.5%45 W · 66 L | -5.6wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa29d…fbc0backed Under | 23c | 128$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.44 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4aa6…39dbbacked Over | 78c | 121.71$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.78 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.15per pick | 40cpaid | +63.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfc3…5a9abacked Over | 77c | 114$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.22 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce1…227bbacked Under | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd79…f93ebacked Over | 75c | 98.84$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.71 | 522 | 52.9%276 W · 246 L | +15.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e2…e42abacked Over | 77c | 80$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.4 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -48%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb877…1f39backed Over | 79c | 74.48$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.35 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.26per pick | 58cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x309d…3a8abacked Under | 23c | 64$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.72 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc039…e2e0backed Under | 25c | 61.49$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.16 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -2.6wins | -0.24per pick | 42cpaid | -69.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x43db…ef93backed Under | 22c | 58.86$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1488…0672backed Under | 20c | 55$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.25per pick | 41cpaid | -66%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1018…7264backed Over | 78c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.21per pick | 62cpaid | +40.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x12c4…ff8cbacked Under | 25c | 44$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb59a…e730backed Over | 77c | 44$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.12 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…042fbacked Over | 80c | 29$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.30per pick | 55cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcbb5…35ccbacked Over | 79c | 21.52$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.52 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa925…e1c8backed Over | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.22per pick | 58cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a80…cbf7backed Over | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae69…0c24backed Over | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +16%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6562…4e48backed Over | 79c | 15.22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.2 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2696…c031backed Over | 77c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.45 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.17per pick | 63cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda69…85b0backed Over | 79c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- O/U 1.5 Roundsthis page
- Fight to Go the Distance?Yes won
- Maddalena Parlay - Maddalena Wins by KO, TKO, or DQ & Over 1.5 RoundsNo won
- Makhachev Parlay - Islam Wins Submission & Fight Lasts Over 2.5 RoundsNo won
- O/U 0.5 RoundsOver won
- O/U 2.5 RoundsOver won
- O/U 3.5 RoundsOver won
- O/U 4.5 RoundsOver won
- UFC 322: Makhachev vs. Della Maddalena (Welterweight, Main Card)Makhachev won
- Will Islam Makhachev win by KO or TKO?No won
- Will Jack Della Maddalena win by KO or TKO?No won
- Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?No won
- Will the fight be won by submission?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.