TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x6136…f535

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
40
Categories scored
7
Categories below 50
4

Best Category: Fifa International, grading 53 out of 100 (+0.03 per pick).

Best Category Fifa International at 53 out of 100; worst UFC at 38.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 19, 2026, EDT2050%10 W · 10 L+1.3wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+16.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 20 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Spain vs. Argentina: Both Teams to Scorebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$600Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$600
Spain vs. Argentina: Argentina O/U 1.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$300Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$300
France vs. Spain: Team to Advancebacked Spain · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT+126%+$125.99
Will Spain win on 2026-07-14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT+230.6%+$230.58
Will Argentina win on 2026-07-11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$72Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$72.1
Norway vs. England: Team to Advancebacked Norway · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$399Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$399
Will Norway win on 2026-07-11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$118Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$118.25
Will Spain win on 2026-07-10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$159Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 10, 2026, EDT+66%+$104.93
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goalsbacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Will France win on 2026-07-09?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2026, EDT+58.7%+$117.46
France vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2026, EDT+33.3%+$33.33
United States vs. Belgium: Team to Advancebacked United States · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Portugal vs. Spain: Spain O/U 0.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT+112.8%+$112.77
Portugal vs. Spain: Team to Advancebacked Spain · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT+58.7%+$58.73
Will Mexico win on 2026-07-05?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$412Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$412
Mexico vs. England: Mexico O/U 0.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT+50.1%+$50.08
Mexico vs. England: Team to Advancebacked Mexico · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$338Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$338
Will Norway win on 2026-07-05?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT+400%+$160
Will Morocco win on 2026-07-04?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 4, 2026, EDT+185.7%+$185.71
All 20 picks, newest first.
UFC Inactivelast resolved Jul 12, 2026, EDT1315.4%2 W · 11 L-4.1wins-0.31per pick47cpaid-64.9%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
UFC — the 13 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card)backed Conor McGregor · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$367Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$367
Will Khamzat Chimaev win by KO or TKO?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Fight to Go the Distance?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Will the fight be won by submission?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
UFC 328: Tatsuro Taira vs. Joshua Van (Flyweight, Main Card)backed Tatsuro Taira · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$60
UFC 327: Jirí Procházka vs. Carlos Ulberg (Light Heavyweight, Main Card)backed Jirí Procházka · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$679Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$679.42
UFC 327: Paulo Costa vs. Azamat Murzakanov (Light Heavyweight, Main Card)backed Paulo Costa · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$106Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2026, EDT+212.5%+$224.21
UFC 323: Dvalishvili vs. Yan (Bantamweight, Main Card)backed Dvalishvili · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$1,000Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST-100%-$1,000
UFC 323: Moreno vs. Taira (Flyweight, Main Card)backed Moreno · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$242Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST-100%-$241.73
UFC Fight Night: Muhammad vs. Machado Garry (Welterweight, Main Card)backed Machado Garry · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$407Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 22, 2025, EST+43.9%+$178.71
Will the fight be won by submission?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$142Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 16, 2025, EST-100%-$142
UFC 322: Makhachev vs. Della Maddalena (Welterweight, Main Card)backed Della Maddalena · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$448Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 16, 2025, EST-100%-$447.99
UFC 322: Dariush vs. Saint Denis (Lightweight, Main Card)backed Dariush · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$109Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 16, 2025, EST-100%-$109
All 13 picks, newest first.
La Liga Inactivelast resolved Apr 11, 2026, EDT366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick61cpaid+5.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
La Liga — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Tennis Inactivelast resolved Nov 11, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+50.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Tennis — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
ATP World Tour Finals, Jimmy Connors Group: Carlos Alcaraz vs Taylor Fritzbacked Alcaraz · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$398Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 11, 2025, EST+50.8%+$202
All 1 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Apr 21, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Middle East — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$216Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$216
All 1 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved Apr 8, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.65per pick65cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Champions League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-08?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$134Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$133.63
All 1 picks, newest first.
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved May 1, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.75per pick75cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$225Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$225
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.