UFC · resolved market

UFC 323: Moreno vs. Taira (Flyweight, Main Card)

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe9d5f92286ad75eff838f8d464de3c9046d6fb77003eceb9210188cce6727218

Rebuilt 1 hour ago.

Winning outcome: Tairaof Moreno, Taira
Resolved: Dec 7, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $997,162
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $1,058,108

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $997,162 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 560 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in UFC
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x7435…a620backed Moreno	48c	363,265$175,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$174,999.93	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-1.3wins	-0.33per pick	58cpaid	-55.4%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xdbad…9c95backed Taira	52c	200,652$104,739 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$95,912.84	191	54.5%104 W · 87 L	+14.9wins	+0.08per pick	47cpaid	+13%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xafba…e61bbacked Taira	54c	123,446$66,265 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$57,181.37	352	53.1%187 W · 165 L	+27.7wins	+0.08per pick	45cpaid	+14.5%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe90b…5da2backed Taira	51c	107,999$55,469 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$52,529.63	25	52%13 W · 12 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	+12.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x68dd…f0b2backed Taira	54c	80,054$42,874 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$37,179.16	54	40.7%22 W · 32 L	-4.2wins	-0.08per pick	49cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x01ba…b77abacked Moreno	47c	61,217$28,772 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28,772.11	222	59.5%132 W · 90 L	+15.1wins	+0.07per pick	53cpaid	+12.2%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6ade…f5b0backed Moreno	46c	55,500$25,530 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25,530	42	45.2%19 W · 23 L	-2.8wins	-0.07per pick	52cpaid	-14.8%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8f03…64d6backed Taira	52c	52,810$27,580 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25,230.22	68	50%34 W · 34 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	+0.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed Moreno	46c	50,343$22,908 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22,908.2	52	44.2%23 W · 29 L	-2.3wins	-0.04per pick	49cpaid	-17.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9cb9…32f2backed Taira	53c	28,999$15,370 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13,629.76	30	43.3%13 W · 17 L	-0.6wins	-0.02per pick	45cpaid	-8.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x14ac…cb21backed Moreno	46c	26,000$11,990 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11,989.99	63	46%29 W · 34 L	-3.1wins	-0.05per pick	51cpaid	-9.9%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x95b8…47c9backed Moreno	48c	23,542$11,300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11,300	58	43.1%25 W · 33 L	-2.3wins	-0.04per pick	47cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5139…a8dbbacked Moreno	47c	19,368$9,039 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$9,039.45	89	40.4%36 W · 53 L	+4.9wins	+0.06per pick	35cpaid	+11.9%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2f09…4632backed Taira	52c	19,362$10,068 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9,293.53	64	51.6%33 W · 31 L	+2.0wins	+0.03per pick	48cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcc3f…5c6fbacked Moreno	48c	15,444$7,413 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$7,412.94	48	35.4%17 W · 31 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	35cpaid	-20%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf5e1…5ad0backed Taira	52c	15,338$8,016 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7,322.41	288	49.7%143 W · 145 L	-3.4wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb31e…c120backed Moreno	46c	15,020$6,928 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$6,927.75	156	41%64 W · 92 L	-1.8wins	-0.01per pick	42cpaid	-11.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ab8…e88ebacked Moreno	46c	14,880$6,909 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$6,909	11	45.5%5 W · 6 L	+0.8wins	+0.07per pick	38cpaid	+27%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3a55…394ebacked Taira	53c	14,822$7,906 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6,916.36	56	53.6%30 W · 26 L	+5.5wins	+0.10per pick	44cpaid	+12.7%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x03ac…4f55backed Taira	52c	14,637$7,556 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7,080.95	267	43.8%117 W · 150 L	+7.6wins	+0.03per pick	41cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x86e7…613ebacked Taira	53c	14,000$7,380 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6,619.95	134	53%71 W · 63 L	+7.0wins	+0.05per pick	48cpaid	+9.7%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa41c…fadebacked Taira	52c	12,000$6,240 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5,759.98	24	41.7%10 W · 14 L	+0.6wins	+0.03per pick	39cpaid	+3.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Taira	52c	10,853$5,674 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5,179.44	300	39.3%118 W · 182 L	-1.6wins	-0.01per pick	40cpaid	-10.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x85d9…717bbacked Taira	52c	10,054$5,228 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4,826.54	31	58.1%18 W · 13 L	+1.5wins	+0.05per pick	53cpaid	+1.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x832d…d420backed Taira	55c	10,000$5,500 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4,500	76	56.6%43 W · 33 L	+2.8wins	+0.04per pick	53cpaid	+4.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3450…6793backed Taira	52c	9,810$5,101 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4,708.62	9	55.6%5 W · 4 L	+0.3wins	+0.04per pick	52cpaid	+15%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1117…3532backed Moreno	47c	8,618$4,051 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,050.63	195	44.6%87 W · 108 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	45cpaid	-5.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4c86…6993backed Moreno	48c	8,371$4,039 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,039.05	235	37%87 W · 148 L	-3.8wins	-0.02per pick	39cpaid	-15.2%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x019d…2b01backed Moreno	48c	7,987$3,834 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,833.99	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.5wins	-0.48per pick	48cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4488…e319backed Taira	54c	7,500$4,025 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,475	117	46.2%54 W · 63 L	-3.6wins	-0.03per pick	49cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x209e…8bb4backed Moreno	48c	7,426$3,556 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,556.27	54	46.3%25 W · 29 L	-2.7wins	-0.05per pick	51cpaid	-17%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7f76…3e05backed Moreno	52c	6,834$3,551 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,550.91	36	55.6%20 W · 16 L	+1.2wins	+0.03per pick	52cpaid	-10.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2a3a…5225backed Moreno	48c	6,603$3,200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,200	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-1.0wins	-0.50per pick	50cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb322…2179backed Moreno	49c	6,532$3,225 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,225	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	+0.5wins	+0.15per pick	51cpaid	+42.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Moreno	46c	6,142$2,825 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,825.32	72	33.3%24 W · 48 L	-5.0wins	-0.07per pick	40cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Moreno	45c	5,731$2,575 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,574.5	56	57.1%32 W · 24 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	57cpaid	-2.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9ff5…f136backed Taira	52c	4,782$2,486 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,295.18	59	59.3%35 W · 24 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	58cpaid	+1.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x445e…9be0backed Taira	53c	4,500$2,395 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,104.99	178	51.7%92 W · 86 L	-6.2wins	-0.03per pick	55cpaid	-8.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe916…4563backed Taira	52c	4,231$2,200 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,030.77	23	43.5%10 W · 13 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	44cpaid	-14.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa16a…c7eebacked Moreno	48c	4,196$2,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,000	8	50%4 W · 4 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-10.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x54b5…4b31backed Taira	51c	4,071$2,083 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,987.56	367	45.8%168 W · 199 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-3.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x50dd…c186backed Moreno	46c	3,998$1,839 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,838.97	65	33.8%22 W · 43 L	-4.3wins	-0.07per pick	41cpaid	-23.7%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd161…4cc1backed Taira	54c	3,906$2,100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,806.19	309	64.7%200 W · 109 L	+24.5wins	+0.08per pick	57cpaid	+16.7%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc86d…c53fbacked Taira	51c	3,862$1,984 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,878.48	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	-1.7wins	-0.28per pick	45cpaid	-67.6%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xcd36…a8acbacked Taira	54c	3,763$2,032 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,731.07	12	50%6 W · 6 L	-1.1wins	-0.09per pick	59cpaid	-12.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xadc2…00c7backed Taira	46c	3,723$1,696 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,027.07	10	60%6 W · 4 L	+0.8wins	+0.08per pick	52cpaid	+10.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x99e4…e4c4backed Moreno	47c	3,615$1,699 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,699	51	52.9%27 W · 24 L	+1.1wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+10.3%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb7f5…c669backed Taira	53c	3,500$1,855 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,645	22	54.5%12 W · 10 L	+1.0wins	+0.04per pick	50cpaid	+7.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4811…8698backed Moreno	47c	3,317$1,558 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,558.46	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.5wins	-0.15per pick	49cpaid	-35.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdddc…ced2backed Moreno	48c	3,176$1,524 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,524.33	19	36.8%7 W · 12 L	-0.5wins	-0.03per pick	40cpaid	-9.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x306a…0d29backed Moreno	47c	3,100$1,457 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,457	8	25%2 W · 6 L	-2.9wins	-0.37per pick	62cpaid	-66.1%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0x7334…81dabacked Moreno	49c	3,061$1,500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,500	9	44.4%4 W · 5 L	-1.0wins	-0.11per pick	55cpaid	-11.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1dc8…4c1dbacked Taira	51c	3,000$1,530 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,469.98	210	44.8%94 W · 116 L	+2.0wins	+0.01per pick	44cpaid	+3.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x30b8…f41fbacked Moreno	45c	2,878$1,302 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,301.57	77	36.4%28 W · 49 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	38cpaid	+2.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7b88…5d08backed Taira	55c	2,727$1,500 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,227.27	76	53.9%41 W · 35 L	+3.9wins	+0.05per pick	49cpaid	+15.3%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6352…6726backed Taira	53c	2,679$1,420 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,259.25	14	42.9%6 W · 8 L	-1.6wins	-0.12per pick	55cpaid	-8.2%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x81f5…70afbacked Moreno	46c	2,628$1,203 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,203.26	162	47.5%77 W · 85 L	+1.2wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	-4.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Moreno	47c	2,576$1,203 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,203.24	43	37.2%16 W · 27 L	-1.2wins	-0.03per pick	40cpaid	-9.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf5d0…d9e8backed Moreno	49c	2,500$1,225 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,225	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	-1.9wins	-0.27per pick	41cpaid	-37.9%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x1467…4372backed Moreno	48c	2,490$1,195 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,195	69	37.7%26 W · 43 L	-7.6wins	-0.11per pick	49cpaid	-28.7%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0xdc7e…08fdbacked Taira	53c	2,453$1,300 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,152.83	2	100%2 W · 0 L	+0.9wins	+0.46per pick	54cpaid	+86.9%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x58aa…a481backed Taira	52c	2,404$1,250 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,153.85	91	64.8%59 W · 32 L	+8.4wins	+0.09per pick	56cpaid	+15.7%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9267…0f9abacked Taira	50c	2,396$1,198 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,198.03	160	49.4%79 W · 81 L	+1.2wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x132a…abe8backed Moreno	48c	2,272$1,091 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,090.65	32	34.4%11 W · 21 L	-2.8wins	-0.09per pick	43cpaid	-18%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5e58…f73bbacked Moreno	46c	2,265$1,042 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,041.9	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-1.3wins	-0.44per pick	44cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6723…a540backed Moreno	49c	2,258$1,098 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,098.35	10	30%3 W · 7 L	-2.5wins	-0.25per pick	55cpaid	-46.7%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xe66e…abddbacked Moreno	49c	2,226$1,091 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,090.53	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.5wins	-0.49per pick	49cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x05e1…6f5ebacked Moreno	46c	2,215$1,019 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,018.9	63	34.9%22 W · 41 L	-3.8wins	-0.06per pick	41cpaid	-22.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb615…5baebacked Moreno	46c	2,174$1,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,000	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-1.1wins	-0.57per pick	57cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x90ba…63f3backed Moreno	47c	2,050$964 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$963.5	358	26%93 W · 265 L	-7.5wins	-0.02per pick	28cpaid	-14.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf9fe…366bbacked Moreno	47c	2,000$935 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$935	171	58.5%100 W · 71 L	-1.1wins	-0.01per pick	59cpaid	-5.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8b8c…9390backed Moreno	46c	2,000$920 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$920	69	53.6%37 W · 32 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	53cpaid	-0.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf1ef…8cd6backed Taira	53c	2,000$1,060 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$940	120	52.5%63 W · 57 L	+2.1wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	-2.3%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa5ad…be8cbacked Taira	52c	2,000$1,040 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$960	5	60%3 W · 2 L	+0.4wins	+0.07per pick	53cpaid	+4.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdc3d…351dbacked Taira	51c	2,000$1,020 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$979.97	120	55.8%67 W · 53 L	-4.0wins	-0.03per pick	59cpaid	-5.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa9ce…691abacked Taira	53c	1,892$1,003 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$889.21	178	50%89 W · 89 L	+3.9wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	+4.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7055…9717backed Taira	52c	1,870$981 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$889.27	29	58.6%17 W · 12 L	+3.7wins	+0.13per pick	46cpaid	+49.6%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed Taira	55c	1,818$1,000 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$818.18	80	58.8%47 W · 33 L	-1.9wins	-0.02per pick	61cpaid	-6.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Moreno	48c	1,815$871 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$871.2	212	47.2%100 W · 112 L	+10.1wins	+0.05per pick	42cpaid	+6.5%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x360d…5e0fbacked Taira	53c	1,787$947 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$839.79	2	50%1 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.03per pick	53cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x29c0…efaabacked Moreno	46c	1,745$801 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$800.89	180	38.9%70 W · 110 L	+3.6wins	+0.02per pick	37cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6dd6…f5f4backed Taira	56c	1,610$895 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$714.9	540	56.7%306 W · 234 L	-1.7wins	0.00per pick	57cpaid	-4.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9700…0e70backed Moreno	47c	1,507$708 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$708.18	16	37.5%6 W · 10 L	-0.6wins	-0.04per pick	41cpaid	+10.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbdac…f7e2backed Moreno	63c	1,463$920 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$920.13	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.8wins	-0.25per pick	58cpaid	-24.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4c31…5240backed Moreno	49c	1,429$700 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$700	86	40.7%35 W · 51 L	-3.7wins	-0.04per pick	45cpaid	-8.1%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf5a7…63e7backed Taira	53c	1,400$742 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$658	86	50%43 W · 43 L	+3.8wins	+0.04per pick	46cpaid	+0.4%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd3a6…fd55backed Moreno	46c	1,221$561 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$561.49	63	49.2%31 W · 32 L	+5.0wins	+0.08per pick	41cpaid	+27.3%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x74e1…e6a2backed Taira	54c	1,204$648 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$555.88	7	100%7 W · 0 L	+3.5wins	+0.50per pick	50cpaid	+119.1%equal weight	62+0.11 edge/pick
0x011b…e44dbacked Moreno	47c	1,111$522 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$522.17	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.5wins	-0.47per pick	47cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc7bf…b567backed Moreno	54c	1,105$600 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$600	14	21.4%3 W · 11 L	-2.2wins	-0.16per pick	37cpaid	-31.7%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x1ae7…cf61backed Moreno	46c	1,087$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$500	6	50%3 W · 3 L	-0.4wins	-0.06per pick	56cpaid	+3.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfb09…1bd1backed Taira	52c	1,067$557 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$510.53	12	75%9 W · 3 L	+3.1wins	+0.26per pick	49cpaid	+41.6%equal weight	59+0.09 edge/pick
0x2a09…db1cbacked Moreno	48c	1,042$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$500	40	72.5%29 W · 11 L	+3.4wins	+0.09per pick	64cpaid	+12.7%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1f99…c209backed Moreno	48c	1,031$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$500	29	65.5%19 W · 10 L	+1.5wins	+0.05per pick	60cpaid	+2.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x71f6…e115backed Moreno	47c	1,028$480 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$480	74	37.8%28 W · 46 L	-2.6wins	-0.04per pick	41cpaid	-12.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5362…8334backed Moreno	48c	1,025$488 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$488	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	-1.6wins	-0.27per pick	60cpaid	-50.1%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe83c…5e8fbacked Moreno	45c	1,021$459 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$459.4	332	53.3%177 W · 155 L	+6.9wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+2.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x59f4…c1f1backed Moreno	49c	1,020$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$500	27	33.3%9 W · 18 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	35cpaid	-2.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8056…b64dbacked Taira	53c	1,019$540 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$478.87	261	40.6%106 W · 155 L	-9.8wins	-0.04per pick	44cpaid	-10.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9363…3608backed Taira	52c	1,000$520 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$480	64	62.5%40 W · 24 L	+5.7wins	+0.09per pick	54cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

UFC 323: Moreno vs. Taira (Flyweight, Main Card)this page
Fight to Go the Distance?No won
O/U 2.5 RoundsUnder won
Will Brandon Moreno win by KO or TKO?No won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

UFC 323: Moreno vs. Taira (Flyweight, Main Card)

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event