UFC · resolved market
Fight to Go the Distance?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7f32a98ce97c4424061b8f7b0160d41e29e6921bd54f75f8576da9b1e5e61704
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,163
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,205
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,163 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x26cf…c612backed No | 29c | 832.39$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$591 | 905 | 53.6%485 W · 420 L | +46.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30b8…f41fbacked No | 31c | 743.76$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$515.75 | 77 | 36.4%28 W · 49 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53ab…65aabacked Yes | 65c | 557.88$363 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$362.62 | 238 | 50.4%120 W · 118 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2fb0…7263backed Yes | 71c | 530$376 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$376 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c82…b56bbacked No | 33c | 488.97$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$328.31 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Yes | 70c | 439.13$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.39 | 139 | 53.2%74 W · 65 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc449…2239backed No | 35c | 335.85$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.3 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaff0…2e7fbacked Yes | 71c | 329.58$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.1wins | -0.35per pick | 52cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed Yes | 70c | 300$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 366 | 55.2%202 W · 164 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x168a…da29backed Yes | 70c | 169.6$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.72 | 64 | 75%48 W · 16 L | +8.2wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9840…8b6dbacked Yes | 68c | 150$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 72 | 58.3%42 W · 30 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9945…1ef5backed No | 34c | 96.02$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.02 | 50 | 20%10 W · 40 L | -5.6wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xea81…30b5backed No | 35c | 82.86$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.86 | 283 | 33.2%94 W · 189 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac6c…a297backed Yes | 71c | 77.46$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 30c | 59$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.01 | 194 | 18.6%36 W · 158 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x343b…718dbacked No | 34c | 49.43$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.43 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 35cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x95da…60b4backed No | 35c | 42.86$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.86 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefc9…b337backed Yes | 69c | 38.97$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.89 | 44 | 65.9%29 W · 15 L | +4.3wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8e07…3702backed Yes | 71c | 25.35$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0746…8673backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8f7…0350backed Yes | 70c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -2.1wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3e2d…4323backed Yes | 75c | 18.27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.7 | 64 | 51.6%33 W · 31 L | -4.3wins | -0.07per pick | 58cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7259…620cbacked Yes | 69c | 15.15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -2.0wins | -0.39per pick | 59cpaid | -71.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x010b…81dcbacked Yes | 68c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 49 | 44.9%22 W · 27 L | -4.1wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Fight to Go the Distance?this page
- O/U 2.5 RoundsUnder won
- UFC 323: Moreno vs. Taira (Flyweight, Main Card)Taira won
- Will Brandon Moreno win by KO or TKO?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.