UFC · resolved market
UFC Fight Night: Muhammad vs. Machado Garry (Welterweight, Main Card)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x31398c02158ce1e601256222846e9698c8ce02ec3617cae8245f2b73045ae08e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Machado Garryof Muhammad, Machado Garry
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $870,898
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,014,695
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $870,898 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 542 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x68dd…f0b2backed Machado Garry | 73c | 152,041$110,761 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41,280.7 | 54 | 40.7%22 W · 32 L | -4.2wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb27…c56ebacked Muhammad | 26c | 111,462$29,006 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29,006.15 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c74…bd4ebacked Machado Garry | 74c | 83,439$61,621 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21,818.57 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +2.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…c94dbacked Machado Garry | 71c | 69,727$49,506 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20,220.78 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbddf…c684backed Muhammad | 26c | 68,429$17,791 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17,791.48 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.24per pick | 48cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f03…64d6backed Muhammad | 29c | 58,324$16,861 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,860.85 | 68 | 50%34 W · 34 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9267…0f9abacked Muhammad | 27c | 45,505$12,416 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,416.27 | 160 | 49.4%79 W · 81 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b15…9b08backed Machado Garry | 78c | 33,774$26,454 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,319.88 | 291 | 51.9%151 W · 140 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c7a…8536backed Machado Garry | 74c | 31,807$23,530 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,276.78 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.19per pick | 49cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb2ab…f2c3backed Machado Garry | 71c | 29,839$21,332 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,507.35 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14ac…cb21backed Muhammad | 27c | 27,260$7,360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,360.24 | 63 | 46%29 W · 34 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f6…5817backed Muhammad | 27c | 27,000$7,290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,290 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.16per pick | 53cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Muhammad | 29c | 25,835$7,368 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,368.32 | 72 | 33.3%24 W · 48 L | -5.0wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcc3f…5c6fbacked Muhammad | 24c | 20,284$4,793 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,792.87 | 48 | 35.4%17 W · 31 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -20%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd2aa…deecbacked Muhammad | 28c | 15,854$4,439 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,439.11 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -3.7wins | -0.26per pick | 55cpaid | -57.9%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xac0d…b006backed Machado Garry | 77c | 14,657$11,248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,408.47 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e1…5ad0backed Machado Garry | 72c | 13,388$9,684 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,704.18 | 288 | 49.7%143 W · 145 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa849…c825backed Muhammad | 29c | 11,520$3,356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,355.87 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Machado Garry | 72c | 11,000$7,920 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,079.99 | 371 | 52.8%196 W · 175 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ade…f5b0backed Machado Garry | 73c | 10,125$7,391 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,733.75 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x132a…abe8backed Muhammad | 27c | 9,500$2,565 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,565 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | -2.8wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -18%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf6c…7e66backed Muhammad | 28c | 9,268$2,595 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,594.99 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Muhammad | 0c | 9,000$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 194 | 18.6%36 W · 158 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Muhammad | 28c | 8,902$2,493 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,492.56 | 89 | 40.4%36 W · 53 L | +4.9wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf635…e876backed Muhammad | 29c | 8,655$2,510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,510.09 | 66 | 45.5%30 W · 36 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89c9…9534backed Machado Garry | 74c | 8,108$6,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,108.11 | 243 | 56.8%138 W · 105 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20cb…719bbacked Machado Garry | 74c | 7,836$5,799 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,037.49 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2bc7…e411backed Machado Garry | 69c | 7,664$5,256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,407.91 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01ba…b77abacked Machado Garry | 73c | 7,660$5,592 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,068.14 | 222 | 59.5%132 W · 90 L | +15.1wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Muhammad | 27c | 7,347$2,017 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,017.23 | 300 | 39.3%118 W · 182 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8c…9390backed Muhammad | 19c | 7,000$1,350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,350 | 69 | 53.6%37 W · 32 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x596e…7b82backed Machado Garry | 73c | 7,000$5,110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,889.99 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37e4…c991backed Machado Garry | 73c | 6,613$4,828 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,785.62 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe916…4563backed Muhammad | 28c | 6,368$1,783 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,783 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Muhammad | 27c | 6,000$1,620 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,620 | 420 | 42.6%179 W · 241 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x387c…57b3backed Machado Garry | 72c | 5,553$3,998 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,554.78 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 70cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8aec…1158backed Machado Garry | 74c | 5,405$4,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,405.41 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1375…4c69backed Machado Garry | 73c | 5,317$3,900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,416.55 | 70 | 40%28 W · 42 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8af0…4c85backed Muhammad | 28c | 5,257$1,462 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,462 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a6d…3779backed Muhammad | 29c | 5,148$1,493 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,492.92 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Muhammad | 28c | 5,100$1,449 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,448.5 | 358 | 26%93 W · 265 L | -7.5wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3a6…fd55backed Muhammad | 27c | 5,000$1,350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,350 | 63 | 49.2%31 W · 32 L | +5.0wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9ff5…f136backed Muhammad | 23c | 4,402$1,030 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,030.05 | 59 | 59.3%35 W · 24 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41b4…de82backed Muhammad | 26c | 4,249$1,114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,113.52 | 105 | 22.9%24 W · 81 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdecc…9d36backed Machado Garry | 71c | 4,230$3,003 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,226.68 | 169 | 51.5%87 W · 82 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x26cf…c612backed Muhammad | 31c | 4,137$1,286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,286.35 | 905 | 53.6%485 W · 420 L | +46.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b1e…65c1backed Machado Garry | 73c | 4,110$3,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,109.59 | 62 | 40.3%25 W · 37 L | -3.5wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x33c2…9818backed Muhammad | 29c | 4,000$1,160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,160 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd161…4cc1backed Machado Garry | 73c | 3,913$2,873 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,040.2 | 309 | 64.7%200 W · 109 L | +24.5wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x41e0…a8e0backed Machado Garry | 72c | 3,818$2,738 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,080.29 | 70 | 52.9%37 W · 33 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa2a3…911ebacked Machado Garry | 74c | 3,728$2,743 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$985.02 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 63cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f9a…8ae8backed Muhammad | 27c | 3,704$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.7wins | +0.19per pick | 45cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7a8b…b1c8backed Machado Garry | 77c | 2,799$2,147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$651.77 | 136 | 50%68 W · 68 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe44b…4982backed Machado Garry | 72c | 2,778$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$777.83 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95b8…47c9backed Machado Garry | 74c | 2,704$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$703.78 | 58 | 43.1%25 W · 33 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…837dbacked Machado Garry | 74c | 2,703$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$702.7 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +2.3wins | +0.21per pick | 61cpaid | +47.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2368…47c2backed Muhammad | 28c | 2,649$748 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$748.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbad…9c95backed Machado Garry | 72c | 2,647$1,906 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$741.3 | 191 | 54.5%104 W · 87 L | +14.9wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +13%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2a9d…1469backed Muhammad | 29c | 2,500$725 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$725 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4dcd…1722backed Muhammad | 9c | 2,405$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -2.8wins | -0.19per pick | 39cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7cf4…20b3backed Machado Garry | 75c | 2,318$1,728 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$589.91 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | -4.0wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2f09…4632backed Muhammad | 27c | 2,292$621 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$621.09 | 64 | 51.6%33 W · 31 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14c3…df68backed Muhammad | 27c | 2,225$592 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$591.75 | 82 | 48.8%40 W · 42 L | +6.3wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked Muhammad | 20c | 2,217$448 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$447.59 | 201 | 39.8%80 W · 121 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Muhammad | 29c | 2,058$597 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$596.82 | 54 | 51.9%28 W · 26 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7cb2…f12fbacked Machado Garry | 73c | 2,055$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$554.96 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.15per pick | 71cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x445e…9be0backed Machado Garry | 73c | 2,000$1,460 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$540 | 178 | 51.7%92 W · 86 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ca…a175backed Muhammad | 28c | 2,000$560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$559.99 | 202 | 33.7%68 W · 134 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30b8…f41fbacked Muhammad | 30c | 2,000$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$599.98 | 77 | 36.4%28 W · 49 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Machado Garry | 73c | 1,918$1,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$517.85 | 332 | 53.3%177 W · 155 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x469f…276cbacked Muhammad | 27c | 1,882$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 41cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa253…7630backed Muhammad | 28c | 1,786$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500.08 | 52 | 40.4%21 W · 31 L | -3.7wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -15%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6f4…0566backed Muhammad | 24c | 1,746$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$419.75 | 88 | 40.9%36 W · 52 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4da5…e32ebacked Muhammad | 29c | 1,724$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.21per pick | 37cpaid | +67%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x306a…0d29backed Machado Garry | 70c | 1,700$1,190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$510 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.9wins | -0.37per pick | 62cpaid | -66.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Muhammad | 22c | 1,531$338 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$337.75 | 145 | 30.3%44 W · 101 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa71a…e4e2backed Muhammad | 29c | 1,503$430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$430 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22e6…409fbacked Muhammad | 29c | 1,500$435 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$435 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb44…e977backed Muhammad | 27c | 1,500$405 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$405.13 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e58…f73bbacked Muhammad | 27c | 1,500$405 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$404.99 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf707…e8cebacked Muhammad | 27c | 1,471$397 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$397.1 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 37cpaid | -74.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x283d…0dadbacked Muhammad | 27c | 1,370$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x06a9…3b80backed Muhammad | 30c | 1,360$404 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$404.4 | 37 | 32.4%12 W · 25 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe92…fb1bbacked Machado Garry | 73c | 1,301$950 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$351.37 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ada…2f28backed Muhammad | 20c | 1,290$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258 | 181 | 45.3%82 W · 99 L | +6.9wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9363…3608backed Machado Garry | 73c | 1,250$913 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$337.5 | 64 | 62.5%40 W · 24 L | +5.7wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x87d8…916dbacked Muhammad | 2c | 1,214$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c86…6993backed Muhammad | 29c | 1,200$348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$347.99 | 235 | 37%87 W · 148 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf397…e1dabacked Muhammad | 29c | 1,187$346 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$346.49 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.22per pick | 52cpaid | -45%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbf89…90ddbacked Machado Garry | 74c | 1,182$875 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$307.43 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea5…2af9backed Machado Garry | 72c | 1,111$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$311.11 | 57 | 54.4%31 W · 26 L | -4.0wins | -0.07per pick | 61cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc122…731fbacked Muhammad | 28c | 1,071$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77a3…0e3fbacked Machado Garry | 70c | 1,071$750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$321.43 | 35 | 71.4%25 W · 10 L | +6.3wins | +0.18per pick | 54cpaid | +38.6%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ba…bbb6backed Muhammad | 29c | 1,034$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | -6.6wins | -0.19per pick | 43cpaid | -51%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1e33…afb3backed Machado Garry | 78c | 1,026$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.64 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cbf…ec49backed Muhammad | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed Machado Garry | 71c | 1,000$710 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd685…8be9backed Muhammad | 29c | 1,000$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290 | 87 | 51.7%45 W · 42 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ce…691abacked Machado Garry | 69c | 1,000$690 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310 | 178 | 50%89 W · 89 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20a8…f004backed Muhammad | 25c | 1,000$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 209 | 54.1%113 W · 96 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- UFC Fight Night: Muhammad vs. Machado Garry (Welterweight, Main Card)this page
- Fight to Go the Distance?Yes won
- O/U 2.5 RoundsOver won
- Will Belal Muhammad win by KO or TKO?No won
- Will Ian Machado Garry win by KO or TKO?No won
- Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?No won
- Will the fight be won by submission?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.