TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xbf89…90dd

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
44
Categories scored
12
Categories below 50
7

Best Category: Serie A, grading 53 out of 100 (+0.02 per pick).

Best Category Serie A at 53 out of 100; worst La Liga at 45.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
UFC Inactivelast resolved Nov 22, 2025, EST1154.5%6 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick54cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
UFC — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
UFC Fight Night: Muhammad vs. Machado Garry (Welterweight, Main Card)backed Machado Garry · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$875Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 22, 2025, EST+35.1%+$307.43
Fight to Go the Distance?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$171Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 22, 2025, EST-100%-$171
UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Orolbai (Welterweight, Main Card)backed Orolbai · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$500Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 22, 2025, EST+53.8%+$269.23
UFC Fight Night: Horiguchi vs. Ulanbekov (Flyweight, Prelims)backed Ulanbekov · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$500Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 22, 2025, EST-100%-$500
UFC Fight Night: Dalby vs. Izagakhmaev (Welterweight, Prelims)backed Izagakhmaev · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$500Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 22, 2025, EST-100%-$500
UFC Fight Night: Perez vs. Almabayev (Flyweight, Main Card)backed Almabayev · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$300Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 22, 2025, EST+51.5%+$154.55
UFC Fight Night: Topuria vs. Almakhan (Bantamweight, Prelims)backed Topuria · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$300Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 22, 2025, EST+78.6%+$235.71
Rakic vs. Murzakanovbacked Murzakanov · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$160Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 25, 2025, EDT+108.3%+$173.33
Volkov vs. Almeidabacked Volkov · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$160Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 25, 2025, EDT+177.8%+$284.44
Wood vs. Delgadobacked Delgado · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$120Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 25, 2025, EDT-100%-$120
UFC 319: Will Du Plessis win by decision? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$118Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 17, 2025, EDT-100%-$118.41
All 11 picks, newest first.
Premier League Inactivelast resolved Feb 15, 2026, EST1050%5 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-12.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Premier League — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Sunderland AFC win on 2026-02-15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$60Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 15, 2026, EST+66.7%+$40
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-02-12?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$348Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 12, 2026, EST-100%-$348
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-02-11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$224Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 11, 2026, EST+78.6%+$176
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-02-11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$144Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 11, 2026, EST+108.3%+$156
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-02-10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$228Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2026, EST-100%-$228
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-02-10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$128Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2026, EST-100%-$128
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-02-07?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$122Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 7, 2026, EST+63.9%+$78
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-02-07?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$124Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 7, 2026, EST+61.3%+$76
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-02-03?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Will Sunderland AFC vs. Burnley FC end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$65Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 2, 2026, EST-100%-$65
All 10 picks, newest first.
Bundesliga Inactivelast resolved Feb 15, 2026, EST862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.08per pick54cpaid+13%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Bundesliga — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Bundesliga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Champions League Inactivelast resolved Feb 18, 2026, EST425%1 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.19per pick44cpaid-44.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Champions League — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Other European Leagues Inactivelast resolved Feb 15, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Other European Leagues — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Other European Leagues, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Feyenoord Rotterdam vs. Go Ahead Eagles: O/U 3.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 15, 2026, EST-100%-$100
Will Feyenoord Rotterdam win on 2026-02-08?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 8, 2026, EST+108.3%+$216.67
All 2 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Feb 24, 2025, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
World Politics — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

La Liga Inactivelast resolved Feb 16, 2026, EST20%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.57per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
La Liga — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-02-16?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$124Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 16, 2026, EST-100%-$124
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-02-14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$156Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 15, 2026, EST-100%-$156
All 2 picks, newest first.
Serie A Inactivelast resolved Feb 3, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.61per pick39cpaid+156.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
Serie A — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Serie A, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will AC Milan win on 2026-02-03?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$51Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST+156.4%+$79.3
All 1 picks, newest first.
Ligue 1 Inactivelast resolved Feb 1, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+63.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Ligue 1 — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ligue 1, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-02-01?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+63.9%+$63.93
All 1 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Feb 21, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Middle East — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$160Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 21, 2026, EST-100%-$160
All 1 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Feb 15, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
NBA — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the World team win the 2026 NBA All-Star Game?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$172Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 15, 2026, EST-100%-$172
All 1 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Jan 20, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.60per pick60cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump say "illegal immigrant" or "illegal immigration" during his inauguration speech? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$340Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2025, EST-100%-$340
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.