UFC · resolved market
UFC Fight Night: Horiguchi vs. Ulanbekov (Flyweight, Prelims)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x863370d60de2afdedfe2dce5d28bb20ae596332915a7e83e137f13796d3528f7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Horiguchiof Horiguchi, Ulanbekov
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $304,642
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $325,705
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $304,642 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 224 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf152…64aabacked Ulanbekov | 68c | 86,831$59,189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59,189 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | -5.7wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xef38…ae8cbacked Horiguchi | 33c | 51,000$16,730 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34,269.98 | 64 | 53.1%34 W · 30 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68dd…f0b2backed Ulanbekov | 69c | 50,309$34,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34,500.49 | 54 | 40.7%22 W · 32 L | -4.2wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f6…5817backed Horiguchi | 33c | 34,931$11,518 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23,413.17 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.16per pick | 53cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbad…9c95backed Horiguchi | 33c | 30,676$10,015 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20,660.54 | 191 | 54.5%104 W · 87 L | +14.9wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +13%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6ade…f5b0backed Horiguchi | 31c | 30,000$9,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20,700 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x14ac…cb21backed Ulanbekov | 67c | 25,000$16,750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,750 | 63 | 46%29 W · 34 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9267…0f9abacked Horiguchi | 31c | 19,000$5,890 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,109.96 | 160 | 49.4%79 W · 81 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e1…5ad0backed Ulanbekov | 67c | 12,999$8,709 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,709.33 | 288 | 49.7%143 W · 145 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc3f…5c6fbacked Ulanbekov | 67c | 12,657$8,483 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,483.24 | 48 | 35.4%17 W · 31 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -20%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c82…1f13backed Horiguchi | 31c | 10,200$3,164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,036 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbddd…3d9abacked Ulanbekov | 67c | 8,385$5,618 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,618 | 91 | 48.4%44 W · 47 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Horiguchi | 32c | 8,000$2,560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,440 | 300 | 39.3%118 W · 182 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01ba…b77abacked Horiguchi | 33c | 5,809$1,917 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,891.87 | 222 | 59.5%132 W · 90 L | +15.1wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8f03…64d6backed Ulanbekov | 67c | 5,356$3,586 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,585.97 | 68 | 50%34 W · 34 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad6a…9dbdbacked Horiguchi | 31c | 5,063$1,575 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,487.65 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa29…eadbbacked Horiguchi | 34c | 4,544$1,539 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,004.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.66per pick | 34cpaid | +195.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22ed…002bbacked Horiguchi | 31c | 4,465$1,384 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,080.52 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdecc…9d36backed Ulanbekov | 69c | 4,350$3,002 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,001.5 | 169 | 51.5%87 W · 82 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x445e…9be0backed Ulanbekov | 67c | 3,583$2,401 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,400.94 | 177 | 52%92 W · 85 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2a3…911ebacked Ulanbekov | 67c | 3,381$2,265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,265.1 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 63cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f7c…2b74backed Horiguchi | 33c | 3,274$1,082 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,191.97 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 38cpaid | +61.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30b8…f41fbacked Horiguchi | 37c | 3,074$1,135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,938.89 | 77 | 36.4%28 W · 49 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Horiguchi | 31c | 3,062$949 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,112.84 | 52 | 44.2%23 W · 29 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Horiguchi | 31c | 3,000$930 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,070 | 420 | 42.6%179 W · 241 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20cb…719bbacked Ulanbekov | 71c | 2,831$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Horiguchi | 32c | 2,561$832 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,728.8 | 89 | 40.4%36 W · 53 L | +4.9wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd685…8be9backed Ulanbekov | 17c | 2,500$415 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$415 | 87 | 51.7%45 W · 42 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb44…e977backed Ulanbekov | 67c | 2,239$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500.13 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Horiguchi | 33c | 2,050$677 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,373.5 | 358 | 26%93 W · 265 L | -7.5wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2aa…deecbacked Ulanbekov | 4c | 2,000$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -3.7wins | -0.26per pick | 55cpaid | -57.9%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2140…6598backed Ulanbekov | 67c | 1,493$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 134 | 50%67 W · 67 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f95…d8cdbacked Ulanbekov | 67c | 1,493$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77a3…0e3fbacked Horiguchi | 32c | 1,484$475 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,009.38 | 35 | 71.4%25 W · 10 L | +6.3wins | +0.18per pick | 54cpaid | +38.6%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8efe…7b44backed Horiguchi | 34c | 1,471$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$970.59 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c31…5240backed Horiguchi | 34c | 1,471$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$970.59 | 86 | 40.7%35 W · 51 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7455…93adbacked Horiguchi | 31c | 1,450$456 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$994 | 195 | 31.8%62 W · 133 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b3…501cbacked Horiguchi | 32c | 1,400$448 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$952 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xccec…1dfcbacked Ulanbekov | 62c | 1,350$833 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$832.65 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0174…f66fbacked Horiguchi | 35c | 1,192$417 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$775.13 | 100 | 43%43 W · 57 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x469f…276cbacked Horiguchi | 29c | 1,165$338 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$827.22 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 41cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2bc7…e411backed Ulanbekov | 62c | 1,044$647 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$646.97 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3349…c0b8backed Ulanbekov | 67c | 1,000$670 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$670 | 57 | 75.4%43 W · 14 L | +4.9wins | +0.09per pick | 67cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4c86…6993backed Horiguchi | 33c | 1,000$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$670 | 235 | 37%87 W · 148 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x464e…1a67backed Horiguchi | 31c | 1,000$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$690 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9def…d1a5backed Horiguchi | 32c | 1,000$324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$675.91 | 86 | 55.8%48 W · 38 L | +6.7wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x30ef…70dfbacked Horiguchi | 31c | 1,000$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$690 | 109 | 28.4%31 W · 78 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bdf…64c3backed Ulanbekov | 69c | 1,000$693 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$693 | 60 | 60%36 W · 24 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ce…691abacked Horiguchi | 39c | 1,000$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$610 | 178 | 50%89 W · 89 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Horiguchi | 30c | 966.14$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$676.3 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x915d…65f9backed Horiguchi | 34c | 889.92$303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$587.35 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -3.8wins | -0.18per pick | 42cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd161…4cc1backed Ulanbekov | 67c | 821$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550.07 | 309 | 64.7%200 W · 109 L | +24.5wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd6…f5f4backed Horiguchi | 78c | 800.15$625 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.56 | 539 | 56.6%305 W · 234 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Horiguchi | 32c | 784.73$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$535.69 | 180 | 38.9%70 W · 110 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Horiguchi | 31c | 773.14$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$533.54 | 332 | 53.3%177 W · 155 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb71…10cdbacked Horiguchi | 34c | 757.21$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$499.91 | 515 | 33.6%173 W · 342 L | -7.2wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf89…90ddbacked Ulanbekov | 67c | 746.27$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2be4…01adbacked Horiguchi | 69c | 730.34$506 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.15 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8056…b64dbacked Horiguchi | 34c | 710.65$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$469.94 | 261 | 40.6%106 W · 155 L | -9.8wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Horiguchi | 33c | 650.13$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$434.56 | 212 | 47.2%100 W · 112 L | +10.1wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed46…1badbacked Ulanbekov | 65c | 623.66$408 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$408.07 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -21%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x26cf…c612backed Horiguchi | 37c | 605.82$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$384.64 | 905 | 53.6%485 W · 420 L | +46.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x14f3…0c3dbacked Horiguchi | 31c | 528.32$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$364.54 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 37cpaid | +69.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c62…d8d6backed Horiguchi | 34c | 514.71$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$339.71 | 98 | 45.9%45 W · 53 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54b5…4b31backed Ulanbekov | 67c | 500$335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$335 | 367 | 45.8%168 W · 199 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1102…af36backed Horiguchi | 34c | 500$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$330 | 487 | 49.1%239 W · 248 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed10…d2e5backed Ulanbekov | 69c | 499.99$345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$344.99 | 226 | 61.9%140 W · 86 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea5…2af9backed Ulanbekov | 68c | 470.59$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320 | 57 | 54.4%31 W · 26 L | -4.0wins | -0.07per pick | 61cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb6a…f116backed Horiguchi | 34c | 470.59$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310.59 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +1.9wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Horiguchi | 27c | 469.5$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$340.43 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -22%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7cf4…20b3backed Horiguchi | 30c | 467.12$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$327.67 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | -4.0wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x14c3…df68backed Ulanbekov | 4c | 454.95$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 82 | 48.8%40 W · 42 L | +6.3wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x53ab…65aabacked Ulanbekov | 67c | 443.98$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.47 | 238 | 50.4%120 W · 118 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Ulanbekov | 68c | 441.18$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 80 | 58.8%47 W · 33 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26be…d699backed Horiguchi | 34c | 436.33$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288.17 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 32cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc21e…0215backed Horiguchi | 32c | 400$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.68per pick | 32cpaid | +212.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1375…4c69backed Ulanbekov | 66c | 378.79$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 70 | 40%28 W · 42 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f5e…66e1backed Ulanbekov | 66c | 364.64$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.66 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Ulanbekov | 28c | 343.08$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.1 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 40cpaid | -78.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xafba…e61bbacked Horiguchi | 32c | 338.05$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.87 | 352 | 53.1%187 W · 165 L | +27.7wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9b29…8373backed Horiguchi | 40c | 335.32$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.16 | 209 | 33.5%70 W · 139 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb307…be4abacked Horiguchi | 32c | 312.5$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.5 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -2.1wins | -0.16per pick | 32cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd781…92a0backed Horiguchi | 31c | 306.77$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.67 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +65%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8889…a9d1backed Ulanbekov | 67c | 304.48$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4fab…3c98backed Horiguchi | 33c | 303.03$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.03 | 130 | 59.2%77 W · 53 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x87bb…01b9backed Horiguchi | 33c | 303.03$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.03 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.67per pick | 33cpaid | +203%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a2d…d491backed Horiguchi | 33c | 303.03$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.03 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | +3.2wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c85…77c6backed Horiguchi | 34c | 300$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198 | 399 | 59.6%238 W · 161 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5fc…d802backed Horiguchi | 34c | 300$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafe8…5f44backed Horiguchi | 34c | 300$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2889…fc69backed Horiguchi | 34c | 299.99$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.99 | 75 | 41.3%31 W · 44 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd614…ba93backed Ulanbekov | 67c | 298.51$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe0ad…683fbacked Ulanbekov | 67c | 298.51$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 109 | 61.5%67 W · 42 L | +8.2wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0f16…0246backed Ulanbekov | 67c | 298.51$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ac5…50d6backed Ulanbekov | 67c | 298.51$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0cbb…f8a3backed Horiguchi | 34c | 294.12$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.12 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x73a6…8924backed Horiguchi | 34c | 294.12$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.12 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +2.7wins | +0.30per pick | 58cpaid | +54.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3871…2a0cbacked Horiguchi | 34c | 294.12$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.12 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +2.2wins | +0.28per pick | 35cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8d32…563abacked Ulanbekov | 34c | 291.43$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x468f…c2a7backed Ulanbekov | 69c | 289.86$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 140 | 45.7%64 W · 76 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- UFC Fight Night: Horiguchi vs. Ulanbekov (Flyweight, Prelims)this page
- Fight to Go the Distance?No won
- O/U 2.5 RoundsUnder won
- Will Kyoji Horiguchi win by KO or TKO?No won
- Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?No won
- Will the fight be won by submission?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.