UFC · resolved market
UFC Fight Night: Perez vs. Almabayev (Flyweight, Main Card)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5f7a2ad237d6d52e687e225a85055f4441dade2f753c87ff7211b3fc27ec40a4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Almabayevof Perez, Almabayev
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $154,115
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $183,311
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $154,115 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 218 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2b15…9b08backed Perez | 70c | 16,155$11,248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,248.12 | 291 | 51.9%151 W · 140 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7eed…5a28backed Perez | 34c | 11,674$3,981 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,981.1 | 68 | 29.4%20 W · 48 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Perez | 34c | 10,314$3,456 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,456.43 | 72 | 33.3%24 W · 48 L | -5.0wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x41b4…de82backed Almabayev | 20c | 9,788$1,947 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,840.37 | 105 | 22.9%24 W · 81 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef38…ae8cbacked Almabayev | 67c | 8,440$5,646 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,793.95 | 64 | 53.1%34 W · 30 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14c3…df68backed Almabayev | 72c | 7,889$5,659 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,229.68 | 82 | 48.8%40 W · 42 L | +6.3wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e1…5ad0backed Perez | 35c | 7,836$2,735 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,735.38 | 288 | 49.7%143 W · 145 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Almabayev | 67c | 7,154$4,782 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,372.5 | 300 | 39.3%118 W · 182 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…c94dbacked Almabayev | 65c | 6,580$4,281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,298.41 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf353…b287backed Perez | 1c | 6,000$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 40 | 2.5%1 W · 39 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 6cpaid | -88.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3349…c0b8backed Almabayev | 68c | 5,774$3,902 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,871.44 | 57 | 75.4%43 W · 14 L | +4.9wins | +0.09per pick | 67cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Perez | 33c | 5,402$1,759 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,758.62 | 420 | 42.6%179 W · 241 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6c0…722ebacked Perez | 33c | 4,988$1,646 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,645.98 | 75 | 45.3%34 W · 41 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Perez | 33c | 4,775$1,570 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,570.15 | 371 | 52.8%196 W · 175 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb31e…c120backed Almabayev | 65c | 4,591$2,971 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,619.8 | 156 | 41%64 W · 92 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdecc…9d36backed Almabayev | 66c | 4,550$3,011 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,539.35 | 169 | 51.5%87 W · 82 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Almabayev | 50c | 4,200$2,092 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,107.89 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbddd…3d9abacked Almabayev | 66c | 3,856$2,562 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,293.59 | 91 | 48.4%44 W · 47 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ff5…f136backed Almabayev | 68c | 3,081$2,095 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$985.88 | 59 | 59.3%35 W · 24 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd161…4cc1backed Almabayev | 67c | 2,774$1,850 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$923.76 | 309 | 64.7%200 W · 109 L | +24.5wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Almabayev | 36c | 2,727$993 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,734.29 | 331 | 32%106 W · 225 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Perez | 33c | 2,500$825 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$825 | 117 | 46.2%54 W · 63 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Perez | 34c | 2,400$808 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$808.36 | 184 | 53.8%99 W · 85 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe916…4563backed Perez | 34c | 2,330$790 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$790 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a8b…b1c8backed Perez | 65c | 2,209$1,445 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,444.81 | 136 | 50%68 W · 68 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Perez | 5c | 2,092$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.7 | 149 | 29.5%44 W · 105 L | -15.2wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9c95…ed41backed Perez | 34c | 1,975$672 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$671.5 | 82 | 20.7%17 W · 65 L | -12.6wins | -0.15per pick | 36cpaid | -48%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x0801…35cbbacked Almabayev | 67c | 1,947$1,314 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$632.89 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 69cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked Almabayev | 33c | 1,908$628 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,279.73 | 201 | 39.8%80 W · 121 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Perez | 33c | 1,836$608 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$608.2 | 332 | 53.3%177 W · 155 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Almabayev | 44c | 1,636$723 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$913.03 | 145 | 30.3%44 W · 101 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ada…2f28backed Almabayev | 20c | 1,576$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,265.88 | 181 | 45.3%82 W · 99 L | +6.9wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05e1…6f5ebacked Perez | 34c | 1,561$530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$530.08 | 63 | 34.9%22 W · 41 L | -3.8wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9fe…366bbacked Perez | 33c | 1,500$495 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$495 | 171 | 58.5%100 W · 71 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Perez | 31c | 1,500$465 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$465 | 170 | 55.3%94 W · 76 L | +10.6wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +11%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x26cf…c612backed Perez | 35c | 1,335$470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$469.71 | 905 | 53.6%485 W · 420 L | +46.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x20a8…f004backed Perez | 41c | 1,258$516 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$516.09 | 209 | 54.1%113 W · 96 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0aa3…64e9backed Almabayev | 66c | 1,236$816 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$420.27 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 55cpaid | +73.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe103…59fdbacked Perez | 71c | 1,142$807 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$806.68 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x915d…65f9backed Almabayev | 66c | 1,130$746 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$384.2 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -3.8wins | -0.18per pick | 42cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1bdf…64c3backed Almabayev | 66c | 1,000$660 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$340 | 60 | 60%36 W · 24 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ce…691abacked Almabayev | 65c | 1,000$650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$350 | 178 | 50%89 W · 89 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30ef…70dfbacked Perez | 33c | 999.77$327 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$326.91 | 109 | 28.4%31 W · 78 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Almabayev | 20c | 967.89$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$774.24 | 212 | 47.2%100 W · 112 L | +10.1wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x53ab…65aabacked Perez | 36c | 793.01$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.48 | 238 | 50.4%120 W · 118 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa253…7630backed Almabayev | 64c | 782$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281.52 | 52 | 40.4%21 W · 31 L | -3.7wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -15%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3ae5…53c8backed Perez | 34c | 770.3$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.74 | 52 | 53.8%28 W · 24 L | +3.6wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77a3…0e3fbacked Almabayev | 66c | 757.58$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.58 | 35 | 71.4%25 W · 10 L | +6.3wins | +0.18per pick | 54cpaid | +38.6%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa941…ec2ebacked Almabayev | 67c | 663.31$444 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.89 | 53 | 62.3%33 W · 20 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc092…0cd9backed Perez | 36c | 622$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.02 | 121 | 34.7%42 W · 79 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54b5…4b31backed Perez | 32c | 600$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192 | 367 | 45.8%168 W · 199 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc64…fc2bbacked Almabayev | 68c | 588.24$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.24 | 87 | 52.9%46 W · 41 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8056…b64dbacked Almabayev | 67c | 578$387 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.74 | 261 | 40.6%106 W · 155 L | -9.8wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0174…f66fbacked Perez | 35c | 572.15$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 100 | 43%43 W · 57 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb44…e977backed Almabayev | 68c | 560$381 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.2 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb652…2db4backed Almabayev | 67c | 558.32$374 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.25 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4762…ba70backed Almabayev | 67c | 516.46$346 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.43 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d31…cea8backed Almabayev | 68c | 503.68$342 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.18 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f26…c83bbacked Perez | 32c | 500$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0434…a98cbacked Perez | 51c | 500$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.85 | 264 | 51.9%137 W · 127 L | +23.0wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd685…8be9backed Almabayev | 66c | 499.96$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.99 | 87 | 51.7%45 W · 42 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Perez | 35c | 487$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.45 | 89 | 40.4%36 W · 53 L | +4.9wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85c2…9730backed Perez | 51c | 462.75$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236 | 134 | 37.3%50 W · 84 L | -10.2wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7811…6e14backed Almabayev | 66c | 460$304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.4 | 32 | 68.8%22 W · 10 L | +3.7wins | +0.12per pick | 57cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbf89…90ddbacked Almabayev | 66c | 454.55$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.55 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7bf…b567backed Almabayev | 67c | 447.91$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.81 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -2.2wins | -0.16per pick | 37cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7cf4…20b3backed Perez | 37c | 420.04$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.85 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | -4.0wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7455…93adbacked Perez | 34c | 409.55$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.25 | 195 | 31.8%62 W · 133 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68dd…f0b2backed Perez | 33c | 393.61$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.89 | 54 | 40.7%22 W · 32 L | -4.2wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0234…62dabacked Almabayev | 55c | 363.64$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.64 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3871…2a0cbacked Almabayev | 68c | 352.94$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.94 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +2.2wins | +0.28per pick | 35cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x30b8…f41fbacked Almabayev | 62c | 352.22$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.24 | 77 | 36.4%28 W · 49 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2140…6598backed Almabayev | 57c | 351.52$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.52 | 134 | 50%67 W · 67 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe542…0a37backed Almabayev | 21c | 344.11$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272.64 | 169 | 55.6%94 W · 75 L | +23.8wins | +0.14per pick | 42cpaid | +59.8%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x464e…1a67backed Almabayev | 65c | 329.4$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.29 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x468f…c2a7backed Almabayev | 66c | 303.03$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.03 | 140 | 45.7%64 W · 76 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe0ad…683fbacked Almabayev | 66c | 303.03$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.03 | 109 | 61.5%67 W · 42 L | +8.2wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe09f…4ad6backed Almabayev | 66c | 303.03$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.03 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -17%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9083…622ebacked Almabayev | 66c | 301.9$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.9 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.25per pick | 62cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c85…77c6backed Almabayev | 69c | 300$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93 | 399 | 59.6%238 W · 161 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5fc…d802backed Almabayev | 63c | 300$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdbb…084ebacked Almabayev | 70c | 285.95$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.95 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +2.5wins | +0.16per pick | 53cpaid | +44.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb307…be4abacked Perez | 35c | 285.71$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -2.1wins | -0.16per pick | 32cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x469f…276cbacked Almabayev | 79c | 279.84$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.69 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 41cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x783e…d7c8backed Almabayev | 67c | 261.19$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.19 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50ca…bfddbacked Perez | 39c | 256.26$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.94 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b3…9573backed Almabayev | 66c | 250$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85 | 78 | 43.6%34 W · 44 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…e834backed Almabayev | 29c | 239.59$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.6 | 81 | 43.2%35 W · 46 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0cbb…f8a3backed Almabayev | 59c | 237.51$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.51 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a54…f7f9backed Almabayev | 67c | 223.88$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.88 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8306…ecc9backed Perez | 63c | 220.34$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.11 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed Perez | 32c | 211.68$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.74 | 202 | 49%99 W · 103 L | +6.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Perez | 33c | 211$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.54 | 180 | 38.9%70 W · 110 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fab…3c98backed Almabayev | 67c | 202.94$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.94 | 130 | 59.2%77 W · 53 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x89c9…9534backed Almabayev | 67c | 200$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 243 | 56.8%138 W · 105 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Almabayev | 61c | 200$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.5 | 54 | 51.9%28 W · 26 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafe8…5f44backed Almabayev | 41c | 200$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7681…ac03backed Almabayev | 66c | 200$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68 | 108 | 43.5%47 W · 61 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb6…ec83backed Almabayev | 51c | 200$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98 | 223 | 42.2%94 W · 129 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4cb9…3783backed Perez | 34c | 199.98$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.99 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -3.3wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- UFC Fight Night: Perez vs. Almabayev (Flyweight, Main Card)this page
- Fight to Go the Distance?No won
- O/U 0.5 RoundsOver won
- Will Asu Almabayev win by KO or TKO?No won
- Will the fight be won by submission?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.