TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Bundesliga · resolved market

Will FC Augsburg win on 2026-02-15?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,624,050
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,680,881

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,624,050 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 380 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf208…fa74backed No50c1,148,342$578,349 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$578,349.0810%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Yes53c202,522$106,857 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95,664.573,28442.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L-74.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Yes50c157,303$78,652 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78,651.517251.7%89 W · 83 L+3.5wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Yes49c156,142$76,672 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79,469.951,35550.9%690 W · 665 L+12.7wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1b4d…e246backed Yes50c128,361$64,180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64,180.334650%23 W · 23 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+6.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4133…5e70backed Yes51c108,631$55,929 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52,701.875142.5%319 W · 432 L-26.7wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-14.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x08c5…43edbacked Yes50c78,000$39,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39,0004854.2%26 W · 22 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3b5c…126ebacked No49c70,000$34,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34,299.9727138.4%104 W · 167 L-9.0wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-17%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes50c58,897$29,517 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29,380.061,68145.2%759 W · 922 L+6.8wins0.00per pick45cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdc87…7ab6backed Yes49c54,583$27,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27,583.3310553.3%56 W · 49 L+3.4wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Yes50c44,764$22,250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22,513.3869851.9%362 W · 336 L+22.3wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+9.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb84a…055dbacked Yes50c40,000$20,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20,000366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.17per pick49cpaid+32%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb328…4df1backed Yes50c31,000$15,650 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,350580%4 W · 1 L+1.8wins+0.35per pick45cpaid+63.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xfce1…9ce7backed Yes48c25,000$12,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,0001942.1%8 W · 11 L-1.5wins-0.08per pick50cpaid-25.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x160b…4296backed Yes42c12,270$5,106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,164.0338748.3%187 W · 200 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-3.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3f5e…e7dbbacked No48c11,587$5,562 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,561.765549.1%27 W · 28 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x72b4…7d67backed No49c11,335$5,554 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,554.154938.8%19 W · 30 L-4.7wins-0.10per pick48cpaid-8.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7298…fe8dbacked Yes51c10,314$5,260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,053.718037.5%30 W · 50 L+0.3wins0.00per pick37cpaid-11%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1867…92cabacked Yes51c10,000$5,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,9008752.9%46 W · 41 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1aa2…30ccbacked Yes51c9,766$5,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,766.214647.8%22 W · 24 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9cb4…b901backed Yes51c9,290$4,738 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,552.21100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+96.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xac47…d234backed Yes50c9,251$4,626 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,625.51764.7%11 W · 6 L+2.1wins+0.12per pick52cpaid+27%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8c81…dcd3backed Yes49c8,000$3,940 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,0602540%10 W · 15 L0.0wins0.00per pick40cpaid+2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa196…5b78backed No48c8,000$3,870 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,8709831.6%31 W · 67 L-6.5wins-0.07per pick38cpaid-26%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Yes52c6,879$3,548 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,330.9233945.7%155 W · 184 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7b2c…af48backed Yes50c6,485$3,243 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,242.5656547.8%270 W · 295 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc49f…9e05backed Yes50c6,200$3,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,1005653.6%30 W · 26 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick51cpaid-0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x585c…f0a7backed No48c6,000$2,850 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,849.945923.7%14 W · 45 L-6.1wins-0.10per pick34cpaid+8.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xf154…27e3backed Yes50c5,961$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,960.783100%3 W · 0 L+1.6wins+0.55per pick45cpaid+124.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf059…6dd9backed Yes52c5,769$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,769.234254.8%23 W · 19 L+2.5wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+13.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x78f7…2c5dbacked Yes50c5,322$2,661 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,661.153748.6%18 W · 19 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-8.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Yes48c5,146$2,445 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,701.0428241.5%117 W · 165 L-7.9wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-16.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe196…0ab5backed Yes51c4,194$2,139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,054.917935.4%28 W · 51 L+2.4wins+0.03per pick32cpaid+42.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Yes50c3,961$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,960.7814157.4%81 W · 60 L+8.4wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+13.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc4c9…617dbacked Yes51c3,922$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,921.571464.3%9 W · 5 L+1.9wins+0.14per pick51cpaid+26.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb9e7…0365backed Yes50c3,900$1,950 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,9501729.4%5 W · 12 L-4.4wins-0.26per pick55cpaid-56%equal weight38-0.10 edge/pick
0x8b49…69c1backed Yes47c3,700$1,739 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,9611838.9%7 W · 11 L-1.7wins-0.10per pick49cpaid-34.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x617b…a499backed Yes44c3,000$1,320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,6806058.3%35 W · 25 L+3.9wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x842a…7422backed Yes50c3,000$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,5003056.7%17 W · 13 L+1.5wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+10.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Yes50c2,900$1,450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,450.435856.4%202 W · 156 L+19.9wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+10.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Yes55c2,780$1,521 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,259.032,53839.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L-8.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-11.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Yes69c2,635$1,816 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$818.981,01344.5%451 W · 562 L-8.2wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-20.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x20c1…df04backed Yes51c2,621$1,345 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,276.663363.6%21 W · 12 L+4.9wins+0.15per pick49cpaid+27.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xa0dc…586cbacked Yes46c2,391$1,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,291.32832.1%9 W · 19 L-2.2wins-0.08per pick40cpaid-17.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xac7a…29c8backed No48c2,391$1,144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,143.99250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-7.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x972b…78babacked Yes51c2,136$1,086 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,049.9456951.8%295 W · 274 L+10.0wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdcd7…029abacked Yes53c2,113$1,120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$993.211100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+88.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xecfc…cd05backed Yes50c2,108$1,062 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,046.2210361.2%63 W · 40 L+8.2wins+0.08per pick53cpaid+12.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Yes51c2,003$1,022 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$981.5633244.6%148 W · 184 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9a9c…c9aebacked No49c2,000$980 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9801533.3%5 W · 10 L-1.2wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-35.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xabf5…cfebbacked Yes50c2,000$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,0002661.5%16 W · 10 L+3.1wins+0.12per pick50cpaid+17.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5351…9b3cbacked No49c2,000$980 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$979.992948.3%14 W · 15 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-6.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5d0c…bcebbacked No49c1,884$920 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$920.475440.7%22 W · 32 L-4.1wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-7.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xca41…695fbacked No49c1,663$815 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb7c2…722ebacked Yes51c1,641$837 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$803.921100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+96.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x97f9…0aebbacked Yes51c1,599$815 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$783.513141.9%13 W · 18 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc88b…af8bbacked No48c1,500$720 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$719.99933.3%3 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid+52.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2e00…eb46backed Yes50c1,450$725 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7252867.9%19 W · 9 L+4.4wins+0.16per pick52cpaid+29.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xfefb…4b5dbacked No11c1,396$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.9923842.9%102 W · 136 L+2.7wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-13.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2c1a…42d8backed Yes38c1,382$523 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$859.185928.8%17 W · 42 L-0.1wins0.00per pick29cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe18a…fd87backed Yes52c1,320$686 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$633.624050.4%121 W · 119 L+18.5wins+0.08per pick43cpaid+15.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x3064…99d4backed Yes51c1,276$651 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$625.472100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+81.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x33c9…6f9abacked No54c1,200$648 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$648837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.14per pick51cpaid-31.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf41a…ea2bbacked No48c1,111$533 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$533.272665.4%17 W · 9 L+1.4wins+0.05per pick60cpaid+13.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa79a…88d0backed No48c1,104$530 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$530250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed No8c1,063$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.4722332.3%72 W · 151 L-7.6wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-24%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcbf4…e3a6backed Yes48c1,050$504 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$546771.4%5 W · 2 L+2.3wins+0.33per pick38cpaid+58.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x75bd…0288backed Yes41c1,043$426 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$617.259646.9%45 W · 51 L+3.0wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+17.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x35b9…1d44backed Yes50c1,000$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5005044%22 W · 28 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-6.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4d3e…783bbacked Yes51c1,000$510 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4902751.9%14 W · 13 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed Yes52c961.54$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$461.547967.1%53 W · 26 L+7.4wins+0.09per pick58cpaid+17.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x806b…5cd8backed Yes52c961.54$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$461.541866.7%12 W · 6 L+1.3wins+0.07per pick59cpaid+7.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcb06…9959backed Yes52c959.71$499 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$460.711100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+92.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe2cf…d1e7backed Yes45c886.3$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$486.3580%4 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.24per pick56cpaid+35.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4cbf…70a1backed No50c840$420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$420425%1 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.26per pick51cpaid-62.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x55fb…fe7bbacked No50c800$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$400333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick47cpaid-51%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf5a7…63e7backed Yes52c800$416 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38422747.1%107 W · 120 L+11.6wins+0.05per pick42cpaid+15.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x127f…8a29backed No11c750$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.53520%7 W · 28 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick17cpaid+29.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe6f0…5701backed No35c744$259 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$258.952025%5 W · 15 L-2.7wins-0.13per pick38cpaid-38.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x44b6…98b4backed No19c735.56$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.183540%14 W · 21 L-3.2wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd9a6…ca5fbacked No50c689.12$344 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$343.5910%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe9ef…e1dcbacked Yes52c615.35$320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$295.373100%3 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+70%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xcdb7…75f2backed Yes41c610$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$359.97057.1%40 W · 30 L+3.6wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+17.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4a8d…31eabacked Yes52c598.08$311 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$287.0834547.5%164 W · 181 L+0.8wins0.00per pick47cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdd79…989ebacked No48c591.67$284 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28410%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8811…cc19backed No50c590$298 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$297.9410%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1c86…15c0backed Yes52c576.92$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$276.9217652.3%92 W · 84 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xac98…7281backed No18c555.56$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1008939.3%35 W · 54 L+4.3wins+0.05per pick34cpaid-1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed No43c550$237 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$236.533737.4%126 W · 211 L-11.2wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-20.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9351…ef0fbacked Yes46c540$248 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$291.6944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-8.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x34f6…eab4backed Yes52c523.08$272 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$251.082040%8 W · 12 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked No37c508.24$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$189.5249143.2%212 W · 279 L-1.3wins0.00per pick43cpaid+22.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xed6f…2378backed Yes51c500$255 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$245475%3 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.25per pick50cpaid+36.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe1c3…a583backed Yes48c487.4$232 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$255.87785.7%6 W · 1 L+2.7wins+0.38per pick48cpaid+190.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xd96d…cf14backed Yes52c480.77$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$230.77933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.12per pick46cpaid-25.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x12e9…e484backed Yes43c452$194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$257.64650%3 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.14per pick64cpaid-13.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7839…54cbbacked Yes45c444.44$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$244.44955.6%5 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick55cpaid+7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xacb5…d643backed Yes53c428.84$227 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$201.555848.3%28 W · 30 L-2.5wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-8.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe91c…5331backed Yes53c418.29$220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$198.291758.8%10 W · 7 L-0.1wins0.00per pick59cpaid-7.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6cf4…4de6backed No48c416.67$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.