TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xc88b…af8b

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
93
Categories scored
12
Categories below 50
5

Best Category: Premier League, grading 57 out of 100 (+0.06 per pick).

Best Category Premier League at 57 out of 100; worst Champions League at 42.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Premier League Inactivelast resolved Apr 11, 2026, EDT1650%8 W · 8 L+2.5wins+0.16per pick34cpaid+64.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
Premier League — the 16 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-04-11?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$1,467Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,466.63
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-11?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$1,150Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT+222.6%+$2,558.66
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-03-22?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$1,262Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 22, 2026, EDT+143.9%+$1,816.02
Will Brentford FC win on 2026-03-16?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$910Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+177.8%+$1,617.92
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-03-14?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$2,171Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2026, EDT+150%+$3,257.07
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-03-14?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$817Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$817.06
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-03-04?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$840Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$839.94
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-03-03?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$1,188Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST+202.9%+$2,411.52
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-03-01?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$650Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$650.48
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-03-01?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$676Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$676.44
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-02-21?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$250Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 21, 2026, EST+400%+$1,000
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-02-18?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$282Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 18, 2026, EST+354.5%+$998.4
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-02-11?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$429Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 11, 2026, EST-100%-$429.35
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-02-10?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$574Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2026, EST+185.7%+$1,065.09
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-02-07?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$576Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 7, 2026, EST-100%-$576.28
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-01-31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$509Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST-100%-$508.68
All 16 picks, newest first.
La Liga Inactivelast resolved Apr 4, 2026, EDT1618.8%3 W · 13 L-1.9wins-0.12per pick31cpaid-37.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
La Liga — the 16 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-04?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$365Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$365.28
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-03-15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$478Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$478.36
Will Villarreal CF win on 2026-03-08?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$693Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$693
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-03-08?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$1,940Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST-100%-$1,940.12
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-03-02?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$515Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 2, 2026, EST+233.3%+$1,201.2
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-02-28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$15.32
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-02-28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$545Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$544.88
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-02-21?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$470Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 21, 2026, EST-100%-$470.4
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-02-16?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$462Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 16, 2026, EST+270.4%+$1,249.12
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-02-08?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$668Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 8, 2026, EST-100%-$668
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-02-08?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$492Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 8, 2026, EST+203%+$998.3
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-02-07?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$164Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 7, 2026, EST-100%-$163.8
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-02-01?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$253Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$253.44
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-01-25?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$150Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 25, 2026, EST-100%-$149.5
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-01-25?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$380Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 25, 2026, EST-100%-$379.69
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-01-18?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$296Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 18, 2026, EST-100%-$295.69
All 16 picks, newest first.
Ligue 1 Inactivelast resolved Apr 5, 2026, EDT1145.5%5 W · 6 L+1.1wins+0.10per pick36cpaid+42.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Ligue 1 — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ligue 1, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2026-04-05?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$1,271Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 5, 2026, EDT+154.7%+$1,966.83
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-03?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$300Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$299.67
Will Stade Rennais FC 1901 win on 2026-03-22?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$603Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 22, 2026, EDT+300%+$1,809
Will Stade Brestois 29 win on 2026-03-08?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$492Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$491.61
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-03-06?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$530Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST+245.8%+$1,303.56
Will AS Monaco FC win on 2026-02-28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$564Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$564.48
Will Lille OSC win on 2026-02-22?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$884Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 22, 2026, EST-100%-$883.6
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-02-13?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$412Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 13, 2026, EST+244.8%+$1,008.2
Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2026-02-07?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$757Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 7, 2026, EST-100%-$756.8
Will Racing Club de Lens win on 2026-01-30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$427Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 30, 2026, EST-100%-$427.03
Will AS Monaco FC win on 2026-01-24?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$556Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 24, 2026, EST+117.4%+$652.86
All 11 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved Apr 7, 2026, EDT1118.2%2 W · 9 L-2.6wins-0.24per pick42cpaid-54%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
Champions League — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-07?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$1,653Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,653
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-03-18?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$457Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$457.13
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-03-18?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$695Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$695.13
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-03-11?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$1,168Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,168.22
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-03-11?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$56Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2026, EDT+178.6%+$100.35
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-03-10?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$1,261Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,261.21
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-02-24?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$595Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 24, 2026, EST-100%-$594.84
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-02-17?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$1,430Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 17, 2026, EST-100%-$1,430
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-01-28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$470Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 28, 2026, EST+127.3%+$598.08
Will Juventus FC win on 2026-01-21?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$436Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 21, 2026, EST-100%-$435.96
Will Olympiakós SFP win on 2026-01-20?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$554Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2026, EST-100%-$554.48
All 11 picks, newest first.
Bundesliga Inactivelast resolved Apr 4, 2026, EDT933.3%3 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid+52.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Bundesliga — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Bundesliga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-04?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$1,137Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,136.65
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-03-21?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$815Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$815.22
Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen win on 2026-03-21?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$1,066Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 21, 2026, EDT+170.3%+$1,814.34
Will RB Leipzig win on 2026-03-20?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$1,397Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,396.5
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-03-14?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$882Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2026, EDT+170.3%+$1,502.55
Will FC Augsburg win on 2026-02-15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$720Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 15, 2026, EST-100%-$719.99
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-02-14?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$351Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 14, 2026, EST-100%-$351
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-02-01?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$269Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$269.1
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-01-24?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$146Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 24, 2026, EST+733.3%+$1,067.4
All 9 picks, newest first.
Europa Conference League Inactivelast resolved Mar 19, 2026, EDT757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.12per pick45cpaid+21.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Europa Conference League — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Europa Conference League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NBA Inactivelast resolved Mar 28, 2026, EDT728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.18per pick47cpaid-48%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
NBA — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Pistons vs. Timberwolvesbacked Timberwolves · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$1,584Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,584
Hawks vs. Pistonsbacked Hawks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$1,426Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 26, 2026, EDT+127.3%+$1,814.4
Spread: Knicks (-19.5)backed Wizards · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$1,300Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,300.32
Hawks vs. Rocketsbacked Hawks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$1,247Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,247.22
Spread: Cavaliers (-17.5)backed Cavaliers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$539Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$539.38
Spread: Pistons (-2.5)backed Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$627Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 7, 2026, EST-100%-$627.3
Spurs vs. Mavericksbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$784Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 6, 2026, EST+37%+$290.11
All 7 picks, newest first.
NHL Inactivelast resolved Apr 10, 2026, EDT650%3 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+30.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
NHL — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Blue Jackets vs. Sabresbacked Sabres · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$1,715Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 10, 2026, EDT+104.1%+$1,785
Panthers vs. Rangersbacked Panthers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$1,594Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,593.6
Blackhawks vs. Rangersbacked Blackhawks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$1,295Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,295.16
Blackhawks vs. Flyersbacked Flyers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$1,493Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 26, 2026, EDT+78.6%+$1,173
Blackhawks vs. Utahbacked Blackhawks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$515Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST+300%+$1,546.12
Maple Leafs vs. Oilersbacked Oilers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$775Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 4, 2026, EST-100%-$774.9
All 6 picks, newest first.
UFC Inactivelast resolved Mar 7, 2026, EST475%3 W · 1 L+1.4wins+0.35per pick40cpaid+91.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
UFC — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Serie A Inactivelast resolved Apr 6, 2026, EDT475%3 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.28per pick47cpaid+53.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
Serie A — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Serie A, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NFL Inactivelast resolved Feb 9, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
NFL — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Seahawks vs. Patriots: O/U 46.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$440Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST-100%-$439.83
All 1 picks, newest first.
CS2 Inactivelast resolved Feb 12, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
CS2 — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Counter-Strike: JiJieHao vs Eternal Fire (BO3) - IstabuLAN Playoffsbacked Eternal Fire · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$117Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 12, 2026, EST-100%-$116.84
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.