TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Bundesliga · resolved market

Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-04?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,006,243
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,065,145

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,006,243 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 1,454 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x37c1…c53abacked Yes64c165,658$106,021 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59,636.726465.6%42 W · 22 L+8.0wins+0.13per pick53cpaid+22.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Yes70c139,250$97,099 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42,150.5933945.7%155 W · 184 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc72d…fc21backed No35c117,331$40,804 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40,803.7350%0 W · 5 L-2.1wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x5dab…22e1backed Yes64c82,670$53,082 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29,587.691100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+55.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed No31c76,010$23,229 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23,228.6469851.9%362 W · 336 L+22.3wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+9.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x433f…a0dcbacked No0c73,275$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.27520%1 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick25cpaid-11.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1b47…d814backed No35c60,746$21,312 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21,312.116755.2%37 W · 30 L+4.1wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+12.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x73c5…2f80backed No34c54,497$18,753 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,752.686051.7%31 W · 29 L+4.4wins+0.07per pick44cpaid-6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x57cd…a0fbbacked No36c53,036$18,838 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,837.72941.4%12 W · 17 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick37cpaid+26%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb6ae…4df8backed Yes64c50,000$32,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,999.994456.8%25 W · 19 L+3.9wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+15.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x4133…5e70backed Yes60c47,856$28,804 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19,051.8575142.5%319 W · 432 L-26.7wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-14.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc974…b33bbacked No36c43,589$15,692 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,691.922951.7%15 W · 14 L+3.1wins+0.11per pick41cpaid+26.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x8b32…5950backed No35c39,448$13,884 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,883.674228.6%12 W · 30 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick31cpaid+16.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd776…ffebbacked No36c39,296$14,152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,151.674341.9%18 W · 25 L-0.2wins0.00per pick42cpaid+3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8ccc…f2dabacked Yes68c31,229$21,183 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,046.222100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+36.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf99a…571cbacked No0c28,020$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.0210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa196…5b78backed No30c26,664$8,121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,121.389831.6%31 W · 67 L-6.5wins-0.07per pick38cpaid-26%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked No33c26,269$8,793 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,792.891,68145.2%759 W · 922 L+6.8wins0.00per pick45cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcd36…a8acbacked No32c25,629$8,202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,201.533458.8%20 W · 14 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick58cpaid-3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x336b…1233backed No44c23,297$10,367 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,366.66540%2 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick40cpaid-21.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x62ca…1760backed No32c23,166$7,413 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,4133145.2%14 W · 17 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-19.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Yes22c23,106$5,132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,974.922,53839.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L-8.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-11.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2a2c…9bc1backed Yes64c21,874$13,999 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,874.75945.8%27 W · 32 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+5.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed No30c21,254$6,479 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,478.6276234.8%265 W · 497 L+9.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9cb9…32f2backed No31c21,166$6,562 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,561.533429.4%10 W · 24 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick29cpaid+19.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x85e8…474abacked No36c19,525$7,029 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,028.86837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick36cpaid-11.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9273…fcf8backed No31c17,596$5,455 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,454.810%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1350…0841backed No36c16,926$6,093 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,093.351566.7%10 W · 5 L+2.9wins+0.20per pick47cpaid+36.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9f2f…2ca8backed Yes64c16,792$10,681 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,111.26366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick62cpaid-3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed No40c16,591$6,665 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,665.1348141.8%201 W · 280 L-5.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-12.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x14e4…3e2bbacked Yes70c16,541$11,578 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,962.17683.3%5 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.15per pick69cpaid+12.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked No55c16,263$8,904 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,904.451,35550.9%690 W · 665 L+12.7wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd267…9dc6backed No35c16,146$5,585 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,585.053333.3%11 W · 22 L+2.1wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+15.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xad94…85b1backed No37c15,960$5,863 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,863.112222.7%5 W · 17 L-2.7wins-0.12per pick35cpaid-37.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xbedb…3b26backed Yes55c15,566$8,561 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,004.53887.5%7 W · 1 L+3.2wins+0.40per pick48cpaid+86.4%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x29cc…3c29backed No36c14,880$5,404 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,404.21060%6 W · 4 L+1.8wins+0.18per pick42cpaid+45.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x412f…30fabacked No36c14,040$5,054 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,054.42441.7%10 W · 14 L0.0wins0.00per pick42cpaid-3.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa2b5…4582backed Yes69c14,000$9,660 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,3402070%14 W · 6 L+2.3wins+0.11per pick59cpaid+23.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x39d3…9ef0backed No33c13,421$4,429 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,428.934740.4%19 W · 28 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1bc8…2f68backed No36c12,790$4,605 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,604.581540%6 W · 9 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc1ae…f001backed No30c12,500$3,789 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,788.911421.4%3 W · 11 L-0.8wins-0.06per pick27cpaid-32.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x26f2…65d8backed No36c12,481$4,493 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,493.1530%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x72d7…1b97backed Yes32c12,163$3,833 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,329.918932.6%29 W · 60 L+4.0wins+0.05per pick28cpaid+2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1333…173bbacked No29c12,046$3,493 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,493.2742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.09per pick34cpaid-13.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5543…e1f5backed No31c12,010$3,693 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,693.083721.6%8 W · 29 L-6.0wins-0.16per pick38cpaid-64.6%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x5e8b…11cabacked No30c12,000$3,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,600825%2 W · 6 L-2.3wins-0.29per pick54cpaid-61.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xadfa…324ebacked Yes63c12,000$7,560 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,439.944540%18 W · 27 L-4.2wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-17.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xaf78…7736backed No74c10,791$7,992 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,991.76450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+4.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x67ac…edf1backed Yes43c10,667$4,634 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,033.062556%14 W · 11 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+9.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0ad1…f046backed Yes62c10,434$6,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,933.551100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+60.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Yes77c10,390$8,011 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,379.228241.5%117 W · 165 L-7.9wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-16.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x52ed…8db7backed No31c10,357$3,211 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,210.551330.8%4 W · 9 L-1.4wins-0.11per pick41cpaid-40.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x701d…57f9backed Yes69c10,210$7,045 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,165.061100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+44.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Yes32c10,021$3,207 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,813.453,28442.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L-74.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x617b…a499backed Yes64c10,000$6,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,6006058.3%35 W · 25 L+3.9wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9ef1…cea5backed No0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10633.3%2 W · 4 L+1.0wins+0.17per pick16cpaid+1.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6fdd…0b07backed No35c10,000$3,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,499.861136.4%4 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick36cpaid-12.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd81f…6b75backed Yes65c8,826$5,769 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,057.5514447.9%69 W · 75 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xd05f…8777backed No31c8,824$2,739 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,738.676126.2%16 W · 45 L-7.8wins-0.13per pick39cpaid-52.9%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x7d80…ba3dbacked No36c7,900$2,844 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,844714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.7wins-0.24per pick38cpaid-72%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x284d…59f7backed No39c7,645$2,982 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,981.54825%2 W · 6 L-2.2wins-0.27per pick52cpaid-64.7%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x6203…6280backed No32c7,556$2,428 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,428.112035%7 W · 13 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick31cpaid+30.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd90d…cf07backed Yes4c7,368$274 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,093.87837.5%3 W · 5 L+1.0wins+0.12per pick25cpaid+326.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe998…b7f0backed No31c6,603$2,047 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,046.93540%2 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick34cpaid+16.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2128…da98backed No36c6,240$2,246 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,246.41241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-10.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec7e…5fddbacked No36c6,200$2,232 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,232333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-55.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x842a…7422backed No37c6,176$2,271 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,270.83056.7%17 W · 13 L+1.5wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+10.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x57b9…d142backed Yes68c5,880$3,998 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,881.61100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0724…9091backed No32c5,800$1,856 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,856.1922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.08per pick30cpaid+10.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x981c…306fbacked Yes62c5,530$3,429 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,101.46757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-10.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xefde…6505backed No31c5,273$1,643 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,642.6622047.3%104 W · 116 L+4.7wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc2f5…3092backed Yes70c5,118$3,605 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,512.651100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x08f0…b809backed No35c5,000$1,767 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,766.671942.1%8 W · 11 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-8.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4a2c…dfe7backed No29c5,000$1,470 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,469.981346.2%6 W · 7 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick44cpaid-9.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x90e0…ff4cbacked Yes2c4,857$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,777.666010%6 W · 54 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick7cpaid+119.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1414…ae7bbacked Yes62c4,850$3,007 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,8431770.6%12 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick68cpaid-1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdb85…152fbacked Yes62c4,836$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,8361330.8%4 W · 9 L-1.7wins-0.13per pick44cpaid-40.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x203b…acd1backed No30c4,810$1,443 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,442.981136.4%4 W · 7 L+1.3wins+0.12per pick24cpaid+50.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0f6e…84b4backed No30c4,719$1,416 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,415.7810%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2f4e…5104backed Yes41c4,598$1,897 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,701.48580%4 W · 1 L+1.8wins+0.35per pick45cpaid+121.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd38f…0f83backed No31c4,500$1,395 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,395616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.17per pick34cpaid-46.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x479e…91c3backed Yes56c4,492$2,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,991.82333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.32per pick65cpaid-40.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe64f…7d71backed No36c4,396$1,583 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,582.56450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-16.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaa70…5501backed No31c3,965$1,211 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,211.021233.3%4 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-20.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2895…2c58backed Yes69c3,775$2,605 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,170.215100%5 W · 0 L+2.0wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+74.8%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed No54c3,753$2,021 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,021.491,01344.5%451 W · 562 L-8.2wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-20.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd306…463dbacked Yes65c3,674$2,395 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,278.632975.9%22 W · 7 L+2.9wins+0.10per pick66cpaid+17.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa529…677ebacked Yes23c3,627$847 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,779.991770.6%12 W · 5 L+1.8wins+0.11per pick60cpaid+54.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd3b6…fa47backed No31c3,623$1,123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,1231435.7%5 W · 9 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+18.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7879…3653backed Yes56c3,571$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,571.431957.9%11 W · 8 L+1.9wins+0.10per pick48cpaid+29.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5d0c…bcebbacked No36c3,500$1,260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,2605440.7%22 W · 32 L-4.1wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-7.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x80cf…427dbacked Yes61c3,500$2,149 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,35110445.2%47 W · 57 L+3.8wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+16.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf7c2…9b8dbacked No45c3,456$1,555 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,555333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick51cpaid-29.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1ea5…b5e6backed Yes61c3,391$2,070 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,321.16100%6 W · 0 L+2.5wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+101.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x160b…4296backed Yes66c3,321$2,192 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,129.0238748.3%187 W · 200 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-3.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4a8d…31eabacked Yes69c3,209$2,214 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$994.734547.5%164 W · 181 L+0.8wins0.00per pick47cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc88b…af8bbacked No36c3,157$1,137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,136.65933.3%3 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid+52.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x91e3…23bfbacked No2c3,072$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.4520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8ae5…4f22backed Yes64c3,000$1,920 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,0802479.2%19 W · 5 L+2.9wins+0.12per pick67cpaid+12.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc2c8…5471backed No32c3,000$960 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$959.992528%7 W · 18 L-1.4wins-0.05per pick33cpaid-19.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.