TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Bundesliga · resolved market

Will SC Freiburg vs. FC Bayern München end in a draw?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$195,910
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$218,652

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $195,910 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 218 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5c44…5eefbacked Yes0c16,350$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.3530%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked No60c16,239$9,701 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,538.312,53839.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L-8.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-11.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2807…27d5backed Yes1c10,044$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.441338.5%5 W · 8 L+1.6wins+0.12per pick26cpaid+92.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4133…5e70backed No77c9,808$7,574 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,233.1475142.5%319 W · 432 L-26.7wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-14.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes18c8,086$1,468 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,467.791,68145.2%759 W · 922 L+6.8wins0.00per pick45cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Yes23c6,202$1,402 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,401.933,28442.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L-74.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb619…5068backed Yes5c5,612$299 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$298.725952.5%31 W · 28 L+5.5wins+0.09per pick43cpaid+20.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed No53c5,573$2,967 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,606.091,01344.5%451 W · 562 L-8.2wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-20.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked No72c5,268$3,773 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,494.31,35550.9%690 W · 665 L+12.7wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed No73c3,104$2,272 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$831.5728241.5%117 W · 165 L-7.9wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-16.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1414…ae7bbacked Yes31c3,000$930 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$929.991770.6%12 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick68cpaid-1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbedb…3b26backed Yes28c2,525$707 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$707887.5%7 W · 1 L+3.2wins+0.40per pick48cpaid+86.4%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x6e75…50d7backed Yes77c2,165$1,673 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,673.39366.7%2 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick68cpaid+4.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd5aa…54c1backed Yes1c2,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6eb0…a15cbacked Yes8c1,999$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$169.9210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x417e…85e4backed Yes6c1,700$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.7wins+0.12per pick5cpaid+85.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbe56…593abacked Yes12c1,670$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.392626.9%7 W · 19 L+3.7wins+0.14per pick13cpaid+128%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xbe7e…6d00backed Yes12c1,667$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick25cpaid-37.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb0df…8f41backed No78c1,620$1,263 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$357.456167.2%41 W · 20 L-2.4wins-0.04per pick71cpaid-7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Yes17c1,607$279 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$278.6414315.4%22 W · 121 L-8.0wins-0.06per pick21cpaid-31.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe196…0ab5backed Yes19c1,515$288 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$287.887935.4%28 W · 51 L+2.4wins+0.03per pick32cpaid+42.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4699…5051backed Yes10c1,500$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x79fb…c230backed Yes13c1,464$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$184.951513.3%2 W · 13 L0.0wins0.00per pick13cpaid-25.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Yes20c1,346$269 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$269.2933945.7%155 W · 184 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x959f…9e2fbacked Yes30c1,323$397 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39740%0 W · 4 L-1.5wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf641…7b6fbacked No79c1,240$986 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$254.2822669%156 W · 70 L+13.1wins+0.06per pick63cpaid+25.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6ee4…80f2backed Yes78c1,053$820 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$819.6810%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.78per pick78cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1fcd…445ebacked Yes15c1,050$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1562429.2%7 W · 17 L+3.6wins+0.15per pick14cpaid+140.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe85d…c249backed Yes30c1,000$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300560%3 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.10per pick50cpaid-1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe18a…fd87backed Yes29c999.7$290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$289.9124050.4%121 W · 119 L+18.5wins+0.08per pick43cpaid+15.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xdf1e…5d9bbacked No8c941.55$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$864.042263.6%14 W · 8 L+3.0wins+0.14per pick50cpaid+95.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xefde…6505backed Yes18c923.13$166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$166.1622047.3%104 W · 116 L+4.7wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x08f0…b809backed Yes19c898.44$171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170.71942.1%8 W · 11 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-8.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb8bd…478fbacked Yes31c861.29$267 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$267425%1 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-44.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x7edb…7993backed Yes62c853.12$528 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$527.6311356.6%64 W · 49 L+3.2wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-11.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x42b5…d098backed Yes31c834.36$259 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$258.65333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-25.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xef88…29a3backed Yes75c809.32$604 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$603.713262.5%20 W · 12 L+1.5wins+0.05per pick58cpaid-2.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3763…c7a1backed Yes51c803.33$413 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$413.44333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.19per pick53cpaid-47.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed No69c802.26$554 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$248.5848141.8%201 W · 280 L-5.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-12.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x287a…02d2backed No79c770.66$609 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$161.842369.6%16 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick74cpaid-6.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8a2f…c5d0backed No80c750$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1502050%10 W · 10 L-4.7wins-0.23per pick73cpaid-31.4%equal weight38-0.10 edge/pick
0xab9f…75f1backed No31c717$219 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$497.972642.3%11 W · 15 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+17.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4f2d…318bbacked Yes13c700$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.5254%1 W · 24 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick8cpaid-81.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7106…1caabacked Yes29c689.66$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2004030%12 W · 28 L-3.2wins-0.08per pick38cpaid-35.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6496…09d0backed Yes31c671.33$207 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207.34540%2 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-17.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x89dc…8f42backed Yes20c636.68$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.343641.7%15 W · 21 L-2.1wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-11%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked No23c613.37$141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$472.4822245.9%102 W · 120 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-1.7%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x203d…2b2cbacked Yes26c569.12$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.97650%3 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.16per pick34cpaid+82.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x37d5…728fbacked Yes27c559.04$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.94250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-29.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca0d…2602backed Yes18c555.56$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002142.9%9 W · 12 L-1.9wins-0.09per pick52cpaid-28.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa7b2…7b9cbacked Yes9c555.56$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501040%4 W · 6 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick34cpaid+60.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xadb9…ef55backed Yes18c536.87$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.344163.4%26 W · 15 L+2.6wins+0.06per pick57cpaid+20.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x972b…78babacked Yes19c522$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.0356951.8%295 W · 274 L+10.0wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1cb4…3839backed Yes79c507.59$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$400450%2 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.12per pick62cpaid-19%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7eb8…902abacked Yes10c452.46$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.38per pick28cpaid+89.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xafc4…daa1backed Yes15c450$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.53627.8%10 W · 26 L+5.0wins+0.14per pick14cpaid+88.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xceb1…bd4fbacked Yes20c450$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90100%0 W · 10 L-1.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc686…5a55backed Yes23c434.78$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10024132%77 W · 164 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-6.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0a21…50d3backed Yes23c413.04$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$953953.8%21 W · 18 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-8.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x61ec…838fbacked Yes73c410.96$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick64cpaid-12.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0ea3…71a1backed Yes77c405.83$313 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$312.752433.3%8 W · 16 L-3.7wins-0.15per pick49cpaid-20.5%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x1871…59e6backed Yes24c399.99$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.910251%52 W · 50 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick52cpaid+2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec82…04b5backed No10c393.52$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$352.411258.3%7 W · 5 L+0.7wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+84.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x42df…bb2fbacked Yes8c387.5$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$305834.5%20 W · 38 L+5.1wins+0.09per pick26cpaid+43.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x09a7…3de9backed Yes46c381.01$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$175.08366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick62cpaid-4.4%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xaa0f…574cbacked Yes30c380.3$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.613751.4%19 W · 18 L-3.1wins-0.08per pick60cpaid-17.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2c89…526abacked Yes27c371.3$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002835.7%10 W · 18 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-23.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb84e…f401backed Yes27c370.37$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.12per pick54cpaid-1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2ecb…7645backed No48c352$167 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$184.598541.2%35 W · 50 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-18.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3fcb…f5ebbacked Yes20c350$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$706940.6%28 W · 41 L+2.2wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-0.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfb51…082dbacked Yes24c329.22$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.9620548.3%99 W · 106 L-10.0wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-11.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2b78…f14fbacked Yes31c326.17$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick41cpaid-6.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe7e3…9b30backed Yes31c322.58$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-6.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe777…c734backed Yes24c315.7$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.771650%8 W · 8 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-16.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe33f…e413backed Yes31c300$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93650%3 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+12.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x57f7…ae57backed Yes20c300$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick17cpaid+1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd43f…0bb0backed Yes9c299.97$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick26cpaid-15.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xef5c…6ababacked Yes8c299.26$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.871553.3%8 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick58cpaid-1.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x52f2…5a5dbacked Yes27c278.67$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.24955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick48cpaid-3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x25fa…cabcbacked Yes30c277.42$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.07per pick59cpaid-9.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb94f…07a6backed Yes72c275.17$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$196.82250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick66cpaid-16.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe828…82d1backed Yes73c273.97$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200785.7%6 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.15per pick71cpaid+22.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb56f…437dbacked Yes79c273.77$215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$214.98250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick67cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x86be…4490backed Yes18c272.22$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$493941%16 W · 23 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick42cpaid+9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5f87…4a86backed Yes31c258.06$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-25.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbea2…f8f3backed Yes31c258.06$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$801127.3%3 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick27cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x186e…3ba3backed No78c256.41$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.412100%2 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa35f…b58fbacked Yes11c255.72$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.1310642.5%45 W · 61 L+6.1wins+0.06per pick37cpaid+16.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9ef1…cea5backed No21c252$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$199.08633.3%2 W · 4 L+1.0wins+0.17per pick16cpaid+1.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xcab3…5e13backed Yes13c250$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.540%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfe50…618abacked Yes16c240$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.4450%2 W · 2 L+1.4wins+0.35per pick15cpaid+267.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1f5f…fe38backed Yes12c225$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.25366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.36per pick31cpaid+178.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb48e…d489backed Yes9c222.22$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20250%1 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.35per pick15cpaid+127.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfbb5…2b6abacked Yes12c208.33$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2526433.3%88 W · 176 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+5.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xadd4…96edbacked Yes17c205.88$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed No73c203.19$148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.027750.6%39 W · 38 L-5.8wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-16.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xbe87…6fc0backed No74c200.87$149 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.233756.8%21 W · 16 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x33bc…37dcbacked No80c200$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$405151%26 W · 25 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0979…fc8abacked Yes20c200$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$402429.2%7 W · 17 L+3.5wins+0.14per pick15cpaid+99%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa61b…e7babacked Yes74c195.3$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144560%3 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.15per pick75cpaid-21%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.