TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NHL · resolved market

Maple Leafs vs. Oilers

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Maple Leafsof Maple Leafs, Oilers
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,272,066
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,345,293

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,272,066 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 567 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NHL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x9976…67dabacked Maple Leafs39c347,845$135,660 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$212,185.4919848.5%96 W · 102 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x03e8…1697backed Oilers61c335,000$204,850 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204,850.1467051%342 W · 328 L+9.3wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa5ea…d96abacked Maple Leafs38c299,999$114,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$185,999.4410840.7%44 W · 64 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc257…358ebacked Maple Leafs39c130,000$50,700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79,299.9848545.4%220 W · 265 L-7.8wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-6.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0d16…d24dbacked Oilers62c96,766$59,995 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59,994.754050%20 W · 20 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-11.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe90b…5da2backed Oilers61c95,554$58,288 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58,288.238748.3%187 W · 200 L+1.6wins0.00per pick48cpaid-6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Oilers62c69,106$42,814 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42,813.6179350.1%397 W · 396 L-11.5wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-3.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a72…33eebacked Oilers36c51,197$18,232 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,232.141,34554.8%737 W · 608 L+21.0wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcd9b…414dbacked Maple Leafs37c40,950$15,151 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25,798.344242.9%18 W · 24 L-2.1wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-16.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Oilers61c37,341$22,941 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22,940.8961950.1%310 W · 309 L-7.6wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xead0…f3babacked Oilers62c30,000$18,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,599.9732946.8%154 W · 175 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfbf3…b218backed Maple Leafs64c27,967$17,959 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,007.8811745.3%53 W · 64 L-0.2wins0.00per pick45cpaid+5.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6c16…8bfabacked Maple Leafs65c22,800$14,721 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,079.053764.9%24 W · 13 L+2.6wins+0.07per pick58cpaid+11.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1496…a429backed Oilers61c22,150$13,512 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,511.513553.3%72 W · 63 L0.0wins0.00per pick53cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x163e…dc5bbacked Oilers62c19,355$12,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,0003243.8%14 W · 18 L-3.1wins-0.10per pick53cpaid-22.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xfb68…a240backed Maple Leafs36c15,532$5,592 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,940.5150049.6%248 W · 252 L+16.4wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbd09…a188backed Oilers57c15,000$8,520 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,52061748.5%299 W · 318 L+0.4wins0.00per pick48cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x91fd…1cdebacked Oilers62c15,000$9,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,299.9813948.2%67 W · 72 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x12ec…41aebacked Maple Leafs64c14,250$9,120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,1304866.7%32 W · 16 L+3.9wins+0.08per pick59cpaid+9.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xaf9e…a250backed Oilers62c14,000$8,640 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,6401250%6 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-12.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa996…8aacbacked Maple Leafs38c13,997$5,359 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,638.131040%4 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-14.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x39d3…9ef0backed Oilers63c13,946$8,738 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,73818641.9%78 W · 108 L-8.5wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-11.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb552…94a8backed Oilers62c13,189$8,177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,177.1861953.8%333 W · 286 L+13.2wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+4.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3189…b449backed Oilers56c11,884$6,666 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,666.11911.1%1 W · 8 L-2.6wins-0.29per pick40cpaid-81.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xdefe…5432backed Oilers62c11,700$7,254 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,2548453.6%45 W · 39 L-6.2wins-0.07per pick61cpaid-10.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x23c8…f293backed Maple Leafs65c11,020$7,163 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,856.997162%44 W · 27 L+4.4wins+0.06per pick56cpaid+14.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf699…07e1backed Maple Leafs68c10,113$6,854 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,258.1685464.2%548 W · 306 L+64.5wins+0.08per pick57cpaid+18.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd267…9dc6backed Oilers63c10,000$6,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,3007659.2%45 W · 31 L+7.9wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+29.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xd4da…3175backed Oilers61c9,722$5,931 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,930.7128251.8%146 W · 136 L+8.9wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x42b5…b5b6backed Oilers63c8,838$5,607 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,607.321,37749.1%676 W · 701 L+39.2wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x10d4…d953backed Maple Leafs38c8,800$3,344 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,455.9944551.2%228 W · 217 L+16.4wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+9.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7298…fe8dbacked Oilers64c7,545$4,829 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,828.933243.7%145 W · 187 L-16.1wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-9.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x498c…42bfbacked Oilers35c7,500$2,625 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,6254057.5%23 W · 17 L+2.0wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+9.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x14ac…cb21backed Oilers62c6,599$4,091 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,091.3121755.3%120 W · 97 L+0.3wins0.00per pick55cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9c4d…168cbacked Maple Leafs37c6,500$2,405 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,094.971,08745.1%490 W · 597 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd7a5…7c26backed Maple Leafs64c5,700$3,648 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,0524365.1%28 W · 15 L+3.9wins+0.09per pick56cpaid+17.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xd3fa…a26cbacked Oilers36c5,560$2,002 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,001.615145%68 W · 83 L-7.3wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-9.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x17f1…af18backed Oilers5c5,331$278 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$277.664912.2%6 W · 43 L+2.4wins+0.05per pick7cpaid+49.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb4b7…3c8bbacked Oilers63c5,000$3,150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,1507347.9%35 W · 38 L-0.3wins0.00per pick48cpaid-2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x201c…58bfbacked Oilers61c5,000$3,050 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,049.956640.9%27 W · 39 L-7.5wins-0.11per pick52cpaid-21%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Oilers29c4,628$1,356 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,356.171,38447.1%652 W · 732 L+25.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Oilers42c4,560$1,901 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,901.341,30152.6%684 W · 617 L+23.7wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Oilers38c4,518$1,725 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,725.232,11242.9%907 W · 1,205 L-10.1wins0.00per pick43cpaid-9.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x467c…8c89backed Maple Leafs76c4,513$3,421 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,092.41758.8%10 W · 7 L-1.1wins-0.06per pick65cpaid-3.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x57b9…d142backed Oilers62c4,500$2,790 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,7909752.6%51 W · 46 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4b9f…e125backed Oilers35c4,380$1,533 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,532.832540%10 W · 15 L-2.6wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-26.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Maple Leafs58c4,225$2,432 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,792.693,70450.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L+105.5wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4fbe…b84fbacked Oilers62c4,065$2,520 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,520.3218258.2%106 W · 76 L+4.8wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+6.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x35ac…92a7backed Maple Leafs39c4,000$1,560 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,44027548.7%134 W · 141 L+0.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbb66…2f53backed Oilers62c3,532$2,190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,1908848.9%43 W · 45 L-4.4wins-0.05per pick54cpaid-10.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc62b…625dbacked Oilers63c3,443$2,155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,1551471.4%10 W · 4 L+2.3wins+0.16per pick55cpaid+31.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xcb2f…936abacked Oilers62c3,252$2,016 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,016.268664%55 W · 31 L+7.9wins+0.09per pick55cpaid+30.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe2e1…c20abacked Oilers46c3,179$1,469 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,469.1818344.8%82 W · 101 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-9.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd6f4…0566backed Maple Leafs52c3,042$1,581 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,460.6595049.1%466 W · 484 L+12.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-10.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Maple Leafs40c3,030$1,203 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,827.311,94849.4%962 W · 986 L+24.9wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4738…df78backed Maple Leafs76c3,013$2,291 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$722.265735.1%20 W · 37 L-13.5wins-0.24per pick59cpaid-40.6%equal weight32-0.17 edge/pick
0x7234…1d85backed Oilers36c3,000$1,080 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0808650%43 W · 43 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-4.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5bc4…f44fbacked Maple Leafs39c3,000$1,170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,83068449.9%341 W · 343 L-3.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Oilers41c2,981$1,217 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,217.192,75447.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L+11.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid-8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe4fc…8af7backed Oilers62c2,844$1,776 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,775.5160249.5%298 W · 304 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Oilers61c2,758$1,682 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,682.331,44149.2%709 W · 732 L+6.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5116…58c4backed Maple Leafs38c2,562$974 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,588.4475251.7%389 W · 363 L-2.1wins0.00per pick52cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Maple Leafs60c2,526$1,524 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,002.152,66451.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L+58.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf641…7b6fbacked Maple Leafs77c2,506$1,919 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$587.3252172.6%378 W · 143 L+36.7wins+0.07per pick66cpaid+9.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x4488…e319backed Oilers62c2,500$1,550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,55027243.4%118 W · 154 L-16.8wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-11.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xc3fc…5176backed Oilers61c2,461$1,501 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,50111243.8%49 W · 63 L-8.6wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-14.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1d98…4d2dbacked Oilers61c2,459$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,5002871.4%20 W · 8 L+4.8wins+0.17per pick54cpaid+37.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x3c7e…a65fbacked Maple Leafs37c2,441$895 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,545.3760337.5%226 W · 377 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-8.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9870…b9d3backed Oilers62c2,419$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,50031550.8%160 W · 155 L-11.6wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-7.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x15fe…c871backed Oilers40c2,095$828 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8281241.7%5 W · 7 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-20.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd6ce…7ec8backed Oilers61c2,000$1,220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,22062346.9%292 W · 331 L-3.1wins0.00per pick47cpaid-2.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xf93f…f94bbacked Maple Leafs64c2,000$1,280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7202445.8%11 W · 13 L+1.4wins+0.06per pick40cpaid-0.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xce4d…a7fabacked Oilers61c2,000$1,220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,22025555.3%141 W · 114 L+10.0wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+3.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9405…c071backed Oilers61c2,000$1,220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,2207647.4%36 W · 40 L-4.2wins-0.06per pick53cpaid-12.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x733d…1ae7backed Maple Leafs36c2,000$720 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,279.9921048.1%101 W · 109 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb6ae…4df8backed Oilers62c1,912$1,185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,185.3936748%176 W · 191 L-12.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-6.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x82b7…cc32backed Oilers62c1,900$1,178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,1786443.8%28 W · 36 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-0.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x986c…3180backed Oilers62c1,851$1,143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,14345955.1%253 W · 206 L+1.0wins0.00per pick55cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x56c2…17bfbacked Maple Leafs36c1,809$651 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,157.8225447.2%120 W · 134 L-1.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-4.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x96bc…7fb4backed Maple Leafs38c1,800$684 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,11624845.2%112 W · 136 L+9.5wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+9.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe732…898fbacked Oilers63c1,712$1,071 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,071.1311950.4%60 W · 59 L-5.6wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-11%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4ebb…061abacked Oilers62c1,710$1,060 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,06024749.8%123 W · 124 L-10.3wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-8.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8333…eb93backed Oilers61c1,616$986 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$985.763351.5%17 W · 16 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+4.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf62b…844abacked Oilers64c1,563$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00014654.1%79 W · 67 L-7.9wins-0.05per pick60cpaid-9.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4e05…1b97backed Oilers64c1,545$988 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9884339.5%17 W · 26 L-6.5wins-0.15per pick55cpaid-30.4%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x1624…bf63backed Oilers40c1,536$610 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$610.4439344.8%176 W · 217 L+23.3wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+1.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x019e…af1dbacked Oilers64c1,500$960 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9605154.9%28 W · 23 L-0.2wins0.00per pick55cpaid-2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5c57…5b16backed Oilers61c1,500$922 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$922.461,47548.3%712 W · 763 L+2.7wins0.00per pick48cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6f72…0841backed Oilers62c1,456$903 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$902.68253.7%44 W · 38 L+0.1wins0.00per pick54cpaid+1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca3f…8078backed Oilers63c1,431$901 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$901.4562249.4%307 W · 315 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd269…8055backed Maple Leafs39c1,410$550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$860.2628152%146 W · 135 L+2.7wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc291…5413backed Oilers53c1,372$725 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7257948.1%38 W · 41 L+4.8wins+0.06per pick42cpaid+7.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Oilers63c1,349$850 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8501,23053.7%661 W · 569 L-9.1wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9719…6ffabacked Maple Leafs39c1,282$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$782.052722.2%6 W · 21 L-5.5wins-0.20per pick42cpaid-49.2%equal weight38-0.10 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Oilers61c1,254$767 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$767.012,89451.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L+58.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc88b…af8bbacked Oilers63c1,230$775 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$774.9650%3 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+30.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x04eb…36a7backed Oilers63c1,190$750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7504858.3%28 W · 20 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick57cpaid+4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb58d…1f46backed Oilers63c1,180$743 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$743.420%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x81e9…1812backed Maple Leafs65c1,133$732 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$401.531376.9%10 W · 3 L+1.8wins+0.14per pick63cpaid+22.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xee7e…61bbbacked Oilers38c1,118$426 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42641248.3%199 W · 213 L-5.0wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.