NHL · resolved market
Spread: Oilers (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe353ac9c3e3c0b52b10524dd73c5344af76c7302ab39b27f502a74b9756acf44
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Maple Leafsof Oilers, Maple Leafs
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,342
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,513
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,342 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2707…0afabacked Oilers | 36c | 1,994$717 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$717 | 154 | 31.8%49 W · 105 L | -12.4wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Maple Leafs | 56c | 868.26$486 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$381.85 | 1,092 | 50.4%550 W · 542 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e7…3c1abacked Maple Leafs | 57c | 856.3$488 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$368.21 | 751 | 55.8%419 W · 332 L | +12.1wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Maple Leafs | 76c | 717.31$548 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.3 | 1,202 | 60.1%722 W · 480 L | +51.9wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +15%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab4e…c4a0backed Oilers | 43c | 697.67$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 42 | 59.5%25 W · 17 L | +4.6wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Oilers | 41c | 598.86$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.55 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9030…4a23backed Maple Leafs | 59c | 542.37$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.37 | 31 | 74.2%23 W · 8 L | +5.9wins | +0.19per pick | 55cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Maple Leafs | 55c | 374.44$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.5 | 831 | 49.5%411 W · 420 L | -9.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Maple Leafs | 58c | 349.61$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.43 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x785f…e3d9backed Oilers | 43c | 333.29$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.13 | 262 | 43.5%114 W · 148 L | -9.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x966d…eaa5backed Maple Leafs | 59c | 300$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123 | 122 | 54.1%66 W · 56 L | -4.8wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc455…8640backed Oilers | 42c | 296.64$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.59 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.29per pick | 54cpaid | -49%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb6…25eabacked Maple Leafs | 59c | 200$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3613…79e1backed Oilers | 44c | 200$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 702 | 49%344 W · 358 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe649…4e37backed Oilers | 44c | 159.09$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 317 | 53.3%169 W · 148 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf254…3ecabacked Oilers | 43c | 115$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -2.4wins | -0.15per pick | 59cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7ed8…6b7fbacked Maple Leafs | 58c | 103.64$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.53 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +32.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf57a…73ecbacked Maple Leafs | 58c | 98.64$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.43 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.7wins | +0.24per pick | 49cpaid | +53.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9794…32c9backed Maple Leafs | 58c | 94.18$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.56 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.16per pick | 50cpaid | +47.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3af2…5212backed Oilers | 43c | 89$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.27 | 54 | 50%27 W · 27 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Oilers | 44c | 72$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.68 | 1,948 | 49.4%962 W · 986 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Oilers | 27c | 71.92$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.11 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa404…3ee0backed Maple Leafs | 74c | 70.3$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.28 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -3.6wins | -0.52per pick | 66cpaid | -80.7%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x3920…23e7backed Maple Leafs | 59c | 67.8$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.8 | 396 | 49.5%196 W · 200 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Oilers | 41c | 61$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.01 | 916 | 53.9%494 W · 422 L | +39.6wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c04…2e2dbacked Maple Leafs | 59c | 57.63$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.63 | 542 | 60.3%327 W · 215 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Maple Leafs | 56c | 47$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.68 | 1,024 | 48.4%496 W · 528 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Maple Leafs | 57c | 39$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.77 | 519 | 49.5%257 W · 262 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Maple Leafs | 79c | 32$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.72 | 1,846 | 57.2%1,055 W · 791 L | +85.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x11f2…a7a0backed Oilers | 38c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 50 | 64%32 W · 18 L | +7.1wins | +0.14per pick | 50cpaid | +21%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x778e…ccd1backed Maple Leafs | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 219 | 51.6%113 W · 106 L | -8.4wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Oilers (-1.5)this page
- Maple Leafs vs. OilersMaple Leafs won
- Maple Leafs vs. Oilers: O/U 6.5Over won
- Maple Leafs vs. Oilers: O/U 7.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.