TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Bundesliga · resolved market

Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen win on 2026-03-21?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,203,253

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,203,253 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 607 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x3fd9…1ef0backed Yes64c200,000$127,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127,499.852055%11 W · 9 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8a6c…0b3fbacked Yes64c78,501$49,997 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49,996.753636.1%13 W · 23 L-2.0wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-14.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb2a4…cf8abacked No37c78,324$28,590 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49,733.911250%6 W · 6 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-3.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Yes63c76,542$48,222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48,221.5617251.7%89 W · 83 L+3.5wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed No29c71,658$20,528 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51,130.553,28442.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L-74.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x39d3…9ef0backed No37c47,534$17,516 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30,017.374740.4%19 W · 28 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4408…1b6abacked No37c43,794$16,204 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27,590.143743.2%16 W · 21 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-7.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfbe1…28eebacked No37c41,600$15,392 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26,207.93250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+35.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5c3a…020bbacked Yes63c39,000$24,570 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24,569.973250%16 W · 16 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked No36c30,856$11,165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19,690.9234144.6%152 W · 189 L-8.1wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-8.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcd36…a8acbacked No37c28,664$10,510 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,153.563458.8%20 W · 14 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick58cpaid-3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4133…5e70backed Yes73c28,283$20,537 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,536.5775142.5%319 W · 432 L-26.7wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-14.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed No37c22,172$8,272 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,899.9469851.9%362 W · 336 L+22.3wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+9.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked No36c20,971$7,654 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,316.881,68145.2%759 W · 922 L+6.8wins0.00per pick45cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd0e7…b14fbacked Yes63c20,652$12,946 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,945.637345.2%33 W · 40 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick48cpaid+1.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4337…8882backed No36c18,888$6,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,088.323063.3%19 W · 11 L+6.8wins+0.23per pick41cpaid+50.6%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0xc974…b33bbacked No36c17,330$6,317 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,012.72951.7%15 W · 14 L+3.1wins+0.11per pick41cpaid+26.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Yes63c17,158$10,791 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,790.8233945.7%155 W · 184 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xadfa…324ebacked Yes63c15,000$9,450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,449.984540%18 W · 27 L-4.2wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-17.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x73c5…2f80backed No64c12,608$8,031 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,577.686051.7%31 W · 29 L+4.4wins+0.07per pick44cpaid-6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2128…da98backed No36c12,514$4,505 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,009.181241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-10.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Yes45c11,880$5,393 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,392.712,53839.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L-8.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-11.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed No7c11,659$873 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,786.7576234.8%265 W · 497 L+9.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaf2a…0525backed No37c10,880$4,026 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,854.41241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-15.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked No43c10,530$4,532 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,997.211,35550.9%690 W · 665 L+12.7wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked No7c9,302$659 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,642.3914315.4%22 W · 121 L-8.0wins-0.06per pick21cpaid-31.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x09ad…819ebacked Yes64c9,063$5,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,8001353.8%7 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick58cpaid-14.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5f20…96a8backed No36c8,972$3,230 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,742.061855.6%10 W · 8 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+1.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed No76c8,795$6,658 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,137.1833737.4%126 W · 211 L-11.2wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-20.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed No16c8,715$1,379 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,336.6353645.9%246 W · 290 L+6.7wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9ab0…ddd0backed Yes63c8,672$5,463 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,463.12250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-3.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6203…6280backed No37c8,160$3,019 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,140.752035%7 W · 13 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick31cpaid+30.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc2c1…9fe2backed No37c8,050$2,979 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,071.5450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8150…d03fbacked Yes62c8,036$4,982 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,982.28450%2 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.16per pick66cpaid-24.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe3a8…06d9backed No37c8,000$2,960 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,039.88666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.8wins+0.29per pick37cpaid+76.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xd267…9dc6backed No37c7,502$2,776 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,726.43333.3%11 W · 22 L+2.1wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+15.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Yes63c7,250$4,568 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,567.516652.4%87 W · 79 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xea00…c1f1backed No36c7,000$2,520 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,4802759.3%16 W · 11 L+2.3wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+14.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x655e…f22bbacked No4c5,654$251 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,402.311100%1 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.96per pick4cpaid+2,150.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1c86…15c0backed Yes56c5,501$3,069 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,068.8217652.3%92 W · 84 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed No69c5,486$3,798 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,687.3722332.3%72 W · 151 L-7.6wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-24%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1bc8…2f68backed No38c5,358$2,036 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,321.891540%6 W · 9 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a40…c93fbacked No36c5,000$1,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,2007057.1%40 W · 30 L+4.0wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+9.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd3d3…bb8ebacked Yes63c4,957$3,125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,1255851.7%30 W · 28 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-7.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb148…9355backed Yes63c4,762$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,00010%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.63per pick63cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0539…46c9backed No36c4,760$1,714 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,046.41100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.64per pick36cpaid+177.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf699…07e1backed Yes24c4,636$1,098 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,097.9510463.5%66 W · 38 L+9.8wins+0.09per pick54cpaid+22.5%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xc1b3…501cbacked No37c4,500$1,665 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,834.962152.4%11 W · 10 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed No35c4,423$1,565 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,858.231,01344.5%451 W · 562 L-8.2wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-20.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe0db…f44ebacked No37c4,000$1,480 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,519.995461.1%33 W · 21 L+5.5wins+0.10per pick51cpaid+22.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa0f9…f569backed No38c3,816$1,450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,365.92250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.23per pick27cpaid+31.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0c51…087cbacked Yes62c3,816$2,366 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,365.9120%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xed61…9aa3backed Yes18c3,750$686 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$685.5515064%96 W · 54 L+25.0wins+0.17per pick47cpaid+53.3%equal weight66+0.14 edge/pick
0x397e…3d84backed Yes63c3,673$2,306 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,305.9844655.4%247 W · 199 L+22.4wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+11.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x62ca…1760backed No36c3,663$1,319 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,344.313145.2%14 W · 17 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-19.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x47c7…cac7backed No36c3,576$1,287 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,288.642853.6%15 W · 13 L0.0wins0.00per pick54cpaid+1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe3d4…2bacbacked Yes65c3,566$2,318 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,317.954772.3%34 W · 13 L+5.5wins+0.12per pick61cpaid+24.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x0a7e…fce4backed No36c3,400$1,210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,1903438.2%13 W · 21 L+3.5wins+0.10per pick28cpaid+95.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xfefb…4b5dbacked No74c3,347$2,477 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$870.0223842.9%102 W · 136 L+2.7wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-13.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7865…4af9backed No38c3,197$1,215 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,982.44524.4%11 W · 34 L-3.5wins-0.08per pick32cpaid-5.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb888…ccfdbacked Yes63c3,185$2,007 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,006.55475%3 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.23per pick52cpaid+110.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9db8…2effbacked No38c3,100$1,178 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,921.85633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7b2c…af48backed No36c3,097$1,120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,977.3456547.8%270 W · 295 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc922…2618backed Yes63c3,000$1,890 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,8909048.9%44 W · 46 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa9d3…9d4bbacked No36c3,000$1,080 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,92024258.7%142 W · 100 L+11.2wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+8.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4a39…a189backed No36c3,000$1,080 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,920633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.18per pick51cpaid-25.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdccd…a16bbacked No37c3,000$1,110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,889.961100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.63per pick37cpaid+170.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc88b…af8bbacked No37c2,880$1,066 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,814.34933.3%3 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid+52.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x88f9…325dbacked No37c2,872$1,063 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,809.361030%3 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick30cpaid-32.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe85d…c249backed Yes36c2,784$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000560%3 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.10per pick50cpaid-1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4afb…ed2bbacked No37c2,600$951 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,649633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-18.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x40d0…4415backed No36c2,550$918 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,6325349.1%26 W · 27 L-4.0wins-0.08per pick57cpaid-12.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0828…5cfebacked No38c2,355$895 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,459.92771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.6wins+0.23per pick49cpaid+56.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf641…7b6fbacked Yes76c2,329$1,772 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,772.2922669%156 W · 70 L+13.1wins+0.06per pick63cpaid+25.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x20c1…df04backed Yes63c2,222$1,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,4003363.6%21 W · 12 L+4.9wins+0.15per pick49cpaid+27.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x3f5c…9e02backed No38c2,213$841 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,372.11771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.6wins+0.23per pick49cpaid+56.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9ef6…e31abacked Yes64c2,070$1,325 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,325683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.21per pick62cpaid+38.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc3fc…5176backed No36c2,014$729 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,284.742948.3%14 W · 15 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x12f9…74babacked Yes20c2,000$403 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$402.979476.6%72 W · 22 L+16.8wins+0.18per pick59cpaid+49.4%equal weight66+0.14 edge/pick
0x38f1…9ff1backed No37c2,000$740 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,2604965.3%32 W · 17 L+4.1wins+0.08per pick57cpaid+17.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xdd09…05b2backed No37c2,000$740 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,259.99633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-31.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc2b6…d7cebacked No38c1,951$741 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,209.391100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.62per pick38cpaid+163.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x56a8…3639backed Yes63c1,904$1,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,199.523339.4%13 W · 20 L-3.8wins-0.12per pick51cpaid-17%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed No37c1,900$697 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,202.9635856.4%202 W · 156 L+19.9wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+10.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4a8d…31eabacked Yes62c1,858$1,152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,151.9834547.5%164 W · 181 L+0.8wins0.00per pick47cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xae2d…2bc4backed Yes14c1,837$257 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$257.181931.6%6 W · 13 L-2.9wins-0.15per pick47cpaid-43.7%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x536a…d21dbacked No36c1,738$626 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,112.32977.8%7 W · 2 L+3.6wins+0.40per pick38cpaid+117.9%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked No19c1,681$319 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,361.849143.2%212 W · 279 L-1.3wins0.00per pick43cpaid+22.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5773…ac11backed No37c1,658$614 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,044.8431145%140 W · 171 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick46cpaid+4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed No14c1,658$239 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,419.7181732.8%268 W · 549 L-11.2wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-12.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf9d3…22d1backed No38c1,620$616 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,004.51540%2 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-20.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf7eb…615bbacked Yes62c1,613$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8fd0…3373backed Yes62c1,613$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0001136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-23.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfe0c…04b6backed Yes63c1,588$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000650%3 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xce72…cbefbacked Yes64c1,563$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.10per pick46cpaid+71.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3bcf…dc5cbacked No35c1,538$538 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$999.611163.6%7 W · 4 L+2.5wins+0.23per pick41cpaid+44.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1f6d…3070backed No54c1,467$793 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$673.962347.8%11 W · 12 L+1.9wins+0.08per pick39cpaid+64.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0a21…50d3backed Yes63c1,422$896 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$895.73953.8%21 W · 18 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-8.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd3b6…fa47backed No37c1,327$491 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$836.011435.7%5 W · 9 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+18.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x37e6…b6a5backed No37c1,301$481 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$819.634240.5%17 W · 25 L+5.7wins+0.14per pick27cpaid+81.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.