Bundesliga · resolved market
Will 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 win on 2026-03-21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe58456e4aa919879ca34a0c96eb4761e03e5aae36b9e9191a9dfe9b86057b5bb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $251,611
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $251,611 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6d11…c449backed Yes | 16c | 17,727$2,851 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,851 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Yes | 6c | 9,456$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550.2 | 751 | 42.5%319 W · 432 L | -26.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 3c | 8,940$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.3 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Yes | 4c | 5,366$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.01 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Yes | 16c | 5,157$825 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$825.17 | 341 | 44.6%152 W · 189 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 6c | 4,900$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308.14 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Yes | 8c | 4,729$366 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$365.73 | 762 | 34.8%265 W · 497 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Yes | 16c | 3,395$543 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$543.27 | 698 | 51.9%362 W · 336 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7e…fce4backed Yes | 16c | 2,000$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | +3.5wins | +0.10per pick | 28cpaid | +95.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7681…ac03backed Yes | 8c | 1,151$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.58 | 56 | 23.2%13 W · 43 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9007…2421backed Yes | 2c | 1,079$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.58 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 22cpaid | +163.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc1ae…f001backed Yes | 17c | 1,030$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.1 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe18a…fd87backed Yes | 18c | 1,010$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.8 | 240 | 50.4%121 W · 119 L | +18.5wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x30a4…8441backed Yes | 16c | 1,000$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 29 | 62.1%18 W · 11 L | +3.8wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked Yes | 6c | 960.34$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.11 | 143 | 15.4%22 W · 121 L | -8.0wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Yes | 2c | 875.9$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.52 | 817 | 32.8%268 W · 549 L | -11.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd785…0d7ebacked Yes | 10c | 867.68$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c86…15c0backed Yes | 7c | 754.54$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 176 | 52.3%92 W · 84 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x478f…f5d9backed Yes | 14c | 719.42$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.20per pick | 42cpaid | +60%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Yes | 9c | 663.21$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.64 | 60 | 35%21 W · 39 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 67c | 589.95$396 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.52 | 491 | 43.2%212 W · 279 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0178…3f7abacked Yes | 23c | 448.22$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.09 | 52 | 46.2%24 W · 28 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d39…a4fbbacked Yes | 12c | 423.73$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | +5.1wins | +0.18per pick | 46cpaid | +55.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2de6…e187backed Yes | 6c | 365.84$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.85 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 28cpaid | -70.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9759…cb52backed Yes | 17c | 294.12$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 30cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x587b…2622backed Yes | 30c | 269.99$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.92 | 194 | 58.2%113 W · 81 L | +9.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +28%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd983…d92dbacked Yes | 8c | 235.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | +4.9wins | +0.12per pick | 24cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe988…cf23backed Yes | 16c | 234.49$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.52 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72d7…1b97backed Yes | 9c | 222.83$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 89 | 32.6%29 W · 60 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x866a…de80backed Yes | 14c | 219.78$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | +2.5wins | +0.08per pick | 20cpaid | +47.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…0b60backed Yes | 16c | 200$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1871…59e6backed Yes | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 102 | 51%52 W · 50 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd93…31d1backed Yes | 6c | 183.33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +69%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e40…7d1fbacked Yes | 9c | 164.52$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Yes | 16c | 150$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 330 | 47.3%156 W · 174 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x005c…a987backed Yes | 15c | 150$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 113 | 54.9%62 W · 51 L | +8.0wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xea9e…d3fbbacked Yes | 17c | 149.78$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.28 | 97 | 21.6%21 W · 76 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4129…ce4fbacked Yes | 12c | 126.26$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.21per pick | 19cpaid | +129.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6932…6878backed Yes | 17c | 124.1$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.1 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +42.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15d1…f579backed Yes | 13c | 115.38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38df…4609backed Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.33per pick | 33cpaid | +62%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x00b0…2c50backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca81…f2abbacked Yes | 15c | 99.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.17per pick | 39cpaid | +45%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9aaf…8298backed Yes | 16c | 76.07$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 214 | 50%107 W · 107 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xddd7…1596backed Yes | 17c | 74.15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.36 | 258 | 55.4%143 W · 115 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13e5…1ea5backed Yes | 17c | 72.76$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.37 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…579cbacked Yes | 17c | 71$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.07 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51e5…da69backed Yes | 17c | 65.24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.81 | 102 | 58.8%60 W · 42 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked No | 75c | 64$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 222 | 45.9%102 W · 120 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa66f…f5a3backed Yes | 17c | 59$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 149 | 42.3%63 W · 86 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0eca…c56abacked No | 76c | 54.74$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.19 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8441…7925backed No | 77c | 48$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.28 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.24per pick | 52cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…61fbbacked No | 77c | 48$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.28 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc9db…6789backed No | 62c | 40.32$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.32 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc49d…91a8backed No | 76c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.44 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.22per pick | 62cpaid | +37.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed No | 77c | 15.4$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.54 | 90 | 52.2%47 W · 43 L | +6.2wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +59.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 win on 2026-03-21?this page
- Will 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen end in a draw?Yes won
- Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen win on 2026-03-21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.