TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NHL · resolved market

Blue Jackets vs. Sabres

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Sabresof Blue Jackets, Sabres
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$750,993
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$769,839

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $750,993 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 605 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NHL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xdd92…6b2abacked Blue Jackets51c227,659$115,327 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115,326.5414650.7%74 W · 72 L+8.5wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+13.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1925…4654backed Sabres49c132,949$65,040 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67,909.211644.8%52 W · 64 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-4.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x03e8…1697backed Blue Jackets50c60,693$30,508 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30,507.7767051%342 W · 328 L+9.3wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc257…358ebacked Blue Jackets52c50,000$26,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26,00048545.4%220 W · 265 L-7.8wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-6.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Sabres49c43,650$21,340 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22,309.521,43450.8%728 W · 706 L-10.7wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1341…0853backed Blue Jackets51c42,570$21,660 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21,659.6541850%209 W · 209 L+7.7wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc660…bd28backed Sabres49c42,210$20,546 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21,663.6448549.7%241 W · 244 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Sabres64c27,499$17,699 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,799.761,30152.6%684 W · 617 L+23.7wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe7a2…ae70backed Sabres48c22,466$10,784 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,682.3212047.5%57 W · 63 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe790…eadcbacked Sabres51c20,442$10,367 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,074.6927448.9%134 W · 140 L-6.4wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-13.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x39d3…9ef0backed Sabres50c20,264$10,137 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,126.7618641.9%78 W · 108 L-8.5wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-11.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6185…2965backed Sabres49c19,592$9,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,991.843450%17 W · 17 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+6.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a72…33eebacked Blue Jackets29c14,008$4,030 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,029.541,34554.8%737 W · 608 L+21.0wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x842a…7422backed Blue Jackets51c12,587$6,418 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,417.5640356.3%227 W · 176 L+5.3wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2a2c…9bc1backed Blue Jackets21c10,921$2,333 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,332.7440351.9%209 W · 194 L+6.9wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf988…d63bbacked Sabres53c10,640$5,639 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,000.85149%25 W · 26 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-10.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8bd8…f306backed Sabres50c10,000$5,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,00031654.7%173 W · 143 L+14.7wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+9.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xfc92…2e78backed Sabres50c10,000$4,960 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,0403151.6%16 W · 15 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+6.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xee00…cea1backed Blue Jackets32c10,000$3,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,199.9944848.9%219 W · 229 L+12.0wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-1.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xacb2…b989backed Blue Jackets47c10,000$4,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,699.9512950.4%65 W · 64 L+10.7wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+13.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Sabres50c9,000$4,530 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,4701,55551.4%800 W · 755 L+12.2wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x31c1…7047backed Sabres49c8,814$4,319 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,495.294151.2%21 W · 20 L-2.3wins-0.06per pick57cpaid-12.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Blue Jackets38c8,670$3,316 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,316.182,11242.9%907 W · 1,205 L-10.1wins0.00per pick43cpaid-9.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xa9b3…468cbacked Blue Jackets50c7,578$3,789 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,78920%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x27f7…44b0backed Sabres51c7,486$3,831 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,654.8520756.5%117 W · 90 L+10.2wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+9.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Sabres51c7,305$3,708 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,596.4261950.1%310 W · 309 L-7.6wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x32cc…68b3backed Blue Jackets51c6,437$3,267 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,267.1833450.9%170 W · 164 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Sabres51c5,988$3,054 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,934.122,66451.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L+58.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8753…85adbacked Blue Jackets51c5,683$2,882 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,882.3361959.1%366 W · 253 L+17.9wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5d1d…afd2backed Sabres66c5,613$3,706 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,907.0918452.7%97 W · 87 L-0.1wins0.00per pick53cpaid-5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x86fb…03d4backed Sabres66c5,123$3,373 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,749.3718853.2%100 W · 88 L+3.4wins+0.02per pick51cpaid0%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Sabres50c5,053$2,516 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,537.052,89451.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L+58.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7150…0a2bbacked Sabres52c5,000$2,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,399.96850%4 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+26.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfb68…a240backed Sabres52c5,000$2,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,399.9550049.6%248 W · 252 L+16.4wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1df2…89a0backed Blue Jackets17c4,957$822 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$821.7233234.3%114 W · 218 L-4.7wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-24.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4d32…9dfcbacked Blue Jackets31c4,553$1,411 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,411.46757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick52cpaid-7.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x047f…6f34backed Sabres50c4,510$2,255 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,255850%4 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+10.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2f5b…e747backed Sabres52c4,500$2,340 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,16043548.5%211 W · 224 L-7.4wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe4fc…8af7backed Sabres51c4,500$2,285 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,21560249.5%298 W · 304 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x021c…232fbacked Blue Jackets51c4,360$2,207 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,206.64555.6%25 W · 20 L+1.8wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x37c1…c53abacked Blue Jackets47c4,319$2,030 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,029.751550.7%261 W · 254 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1418…6fefbacked Sabres51c4,229$2,157 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,072.1227850.4%140 W · 138 L+1.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x60ba…3c6cbacked Sabres52c4,000$2,080 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,9209751.5%50 W · 47 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbd09…a188backed Sabres51c4,000$2,040 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,96061748.5%299 W · 318 L+0.4wins0.00per pick48cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x607d…53a1backed Sabres51c3,922$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,921.5713446.3%62 W · 72 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf725…1e61backed Blue Jackets0c3,895$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.7150%0 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Blue Jackets40c3,521$1,405 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,404.623,70450.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L+105.5wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc88b…af8bbacked Sabres49c3,500$1,715 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,785650%3 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+30.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaca2…b9a1backed Blue Jackets26c3,367$875 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$875.4412838.3%49 W · 79 L-4.3wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-8.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe2bb…ea55backed Blue Jackets47c3,333$1,567 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,566.5127547.6%131 W · 144 L+0.5wins0.00per pick47cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa89a…8667backed Sabres51c3,225$1,645 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,580.041770.6%12 W · 5 L+1.7wins+0.10per pick60cpaid+19.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc4f5…db6ebacked Sabres53c3,211$1,702 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,509.172100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+116.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x84f7…ade1backed Blue Jackets51c3,104$1,582 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,582.481,02448.4%496 W · 528 L+1.3wins0.00per pick48cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x96d9…18a0backed Sabres49c3,061$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,561.2224847.6%118 W · 130 L-7.8wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-6.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x18a4…3a31backed Sabres66c3,001$1,979 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,022.0713850.7%70 W · 68 L-3.8wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-13.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9870…b9d3backed Sabres50c3,000$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,50031550.8%160 W · 155 L-11.6wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-7.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1467…4372backed Sabres49c3,000$1,470 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,53032151.7%166 W · 155 L-1.5wins0.00per pick52cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Sabres71c2,982$2,126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$856.3889636.9%331 W · 565 L-30.9wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-26.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5d1e…d5dfbacked Sabres70c2,936$2,068 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$867.3414757.1%84 W · 63 L+0.1wins0.00per pick57cpaid-7.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2302…d6d2backed Sabres61c2,925$1,775 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,150.1537754.4%205 W · 172 L+5.9wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xfb51…082dbacked Sabres61c2,903$1,772 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,130.5919759.4%117 W · 80 L+10.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+5.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3812…8bb9backed Sabres53c2,720$1,442 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,278.4333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.20per pick53cpaid-37.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x10d4…d953backed Sabres50c2,600$1,306 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,294.2744551.2%228 W · 217 L+16.4wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+9.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x13a1…d9bcbacked Blue Jackets32c2,509$813 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$812.8657157.8%330 W · 241 L+12.7wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2eed…85a9backed Sabres49c2,384$1,168 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,215.847358.9%43 W · 30 L+4.1wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+14%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2586…c893backed Blue Jackets47c2,300$1,081 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,08183652.8%441 W · 395 L+28.9wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xefde…6505backed Blue Jackets51c2,146$1,089 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,089.2466552%346 W · 319 L+8.8wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6e12…20e9backed Sabres48c2,083$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,083.334551.1%23 W · 22 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick52cpaid+2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4285…cfb5backed Sabres52c2,077$1,080 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$996.926758.2%39 W · 28 L+0.1wins0.00per pick58cpaid+3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x56df…72acbacked Blue Jackets48c2,075$996 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$996333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-18.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe648…b79abacked Sabres51c2,051$1,046 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,004.985855.2%32 W · 26 L+3.0wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+9.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb19f…dd0ebacked Sabres49c2,041$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,040.825660.7%34 W · 22 L+2.4wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+8.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8dde…bb57backed Blue Jackets48c2,025$972 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97230%0 W · 3 L-1.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Blue Jackets35c2,018$710 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$710.172,75447.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L+11.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid-8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x56c2…17bfbacked Blue Jackets45c2,000$900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90025447.2%120 W · 134 L-1.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-4.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4b49…0397backed Sabres52c2,000$1,040 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96020450%102 W · 102 L-4.5wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2e4c…28ddbacked Blue Jackets46c2,000$920 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9202045%9 W · 11 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-4.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb9ab…f282backed Sabres51c2,000$1,020 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9807338.4%28 W · 45 L-4.2wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-12.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x698b…4426backed Blue Jackets51c2,000$1,020 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0204047.5%19 W · 21 L-1.8wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-3.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8136…772cbacked Sabres51c2,000$1,020 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9801346.2%6 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-14.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdd74…888dbacked Blue Jackets46c2,000$920 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9202445.8%11 W · 13 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-5.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7b47…d615backed Blue Jackets47c2,000$940 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94019353.9%104 W · 89 L+7.1wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+6.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3c7e…a65fbacked Sabres52c2,000$1,040 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$959.9760337.5%226 W · 377 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-8.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd611…24fdbacked Blue Jackets48c1,964$943 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$942.51333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.19per pick52cpaid-40.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xebf9…337ebacked Sabres53c1,964$1,041 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$922.87475%3 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.22per pick53cpaid+45.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x81e7…eb5ebacked Blue Jackets48c1,830$878 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$878.420%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4658…4131backed Sabres49c1,735$850 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$884.6910663.2%67 W · 39 L+7.7wins+0.07per pick56cpaid+13.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x01a5…312ebacked Blue Jackets51c1,734$885 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$884.547244.4%32 W · 40 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+6.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xb5bd…b891backed Sabres57c1,671$951 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$719.587557.3%43 W · 32 L+2.0wins+0.03per pick55cpaid-0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc249…8a61backed Sabres49c1,650$805 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$844.4916546.7%77 W · 88 L+0.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid+2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x36d8…c7c7backed Blue Jackets50c1,555$778 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$777.516446.3%76 W · 88 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd6ce…7ec8backed Sabres53c1,500$787 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$712.4862346.9%292 W · 331 L-3.1wins0.00per pick47cpaid-2.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xce4d…a7fabacked Sabres49c1,440$706 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$734.425555.3%141 W · 114 L+10.0wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+3.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x82de…1337backed Sabres54c1,439$781 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$658.714062.1%87 W · 53 L+10.5wins+0.08per pick55cpaid+9.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Blue Jackets50c1,400$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70083149.5%411 W · 420 L-9.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2dc4…0c92backed Sabres49c1,376$674 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$701.9841354.5%225 W · 188 L+17.6wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+9.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x986c…3180backed Sabres49c1,364$663 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$701.5445955.1%253 W · 206 L+1.0wins0.00per pick55cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xba67…4727backed Blue Jackets51c1,308$667 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$667.0831848.7%155 W · 163 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf6b0…fdbcbacked Sabres53c1,300$689 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$611850%4 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-19.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa676…a4c5backed Sabres49c1,271$623 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$647.9613437.3%50 W · 84 L-0.5wins0.00per pick38cpaid-2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.