NHL · resolved market
Blue Jackets vs. Sabres: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3e1b964e6b0e981bb1e9d6512e035856430cf352838fdacfaf0a791865644d77
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,775
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,893
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,775 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Under | 16c | 680.48$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.88 | 2,314 | 46.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 44c | 520.15$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$291.69 | 2,112 | 42.9%907 W · 1,205 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc249…8a61backed Under | 16c | 500$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 165 | 46.7%77 W · 88 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbeb7…ca4abacked Under | 53c | 439$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.3 | 73 | 45.2%33 W · 40 L | -5.5wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdbd7…6d6cbacked Over | 42c | 333.02$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.15 | 152 | 65.1%99 W · 53 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Under | 52c | 277.96$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.26 | 336 | 47.9%161 W · 175 L | -5.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 63c | 268.98$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.47 | 823 | 53.1%437 W · 386 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e1…99dbbacked Over | 53c | 250$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.5 | 119 | 49.6%59 W · 60 L | +6.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 53c | 203.48$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.92 | 1,384 | 47.1%652 W · 732 L | +25.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 51c | 179.41$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.07 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ba9…4fa1backed Under | 63c | 172$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.17 | 83 | 49.4%41 W · 42 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Under | 48c | 160.12$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.57 | 355 | 51%181 W · 174 L | +18.9wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 28c | 148$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.64 | 618 | 48.1%297 W · 321 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd154…9c74backed Under | 52c | 125$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.53 | 76 | 42.1%32 W · 44 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Over | 47c | 123.48$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.55 | 920 | 49.7%457 W · 463 L | +14.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f90…4e02backed Over | 53c | 93.53$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.53 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab41…c453backed Over | 52c | 85.08$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.19 | 1,431 | 58.3%834 W · 597 L | +81.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8277…7d31backed Over | 37c | 82.42$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.62 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x42b5…b5b6backed Under | 17c | 77.65$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 1,377 | 49.1%676 W · 701 L | +39.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Under | 60c | 74.94$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.21 | 604 | 49.2%297 W · 307 L | -17.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 58c | 70.93$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.82 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xabe5…d99abacked Under | 54c | 58.98$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.67 | 114 | 45.6%52 W · 62 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b56…9100backed Over | 35c | 57.14$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.14 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Under | 19c | 52.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 780 | 38.5%300 W · 480 L | +23.5wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70fc…ab12backed Over | 42c | 51.72$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 121 | 52.1%63 W · 58 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8afa…28f0backed Under | 58c | 51.72$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 332 | 51.5%171 W · 161 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Over | 44c | 51.03$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.58 | 214 | 63.1%135 W · 79 L | +16.9wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +11%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Under | 50c | 47$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.66 | 820 | 43%353 W · 467 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa11f…1252backed Under | 58c | 37.55$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.69 | 52 | 69.2%36 W · 16 L | +8.9wins | +0.17per pick | 52cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xd3c2…5509backed Under | 58c | 37.4$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.69 | 61 | 67.2%41 W · 20 L | +6.9wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5f…2f5ebacked Under | 52c | 32.04$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.81 | 87 | 57.5%50 W · 37 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 48c | 26.13$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.63 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x795f…7bcebacked Under | 57c | 22.79$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Blue Jackets vs. Sabres: O/U 4.5this page
- Blue Jackets vs. SabresSabres won
- Blue Jackets vs. Sabres: O/U 3.5Over won
- Blue Jackets vs. Sabres: O/U 5.5Under won
- Blue Jackets vs. Sabres: O/U 6.5Under won
- Spread: Sabres (-1.5)Sabres won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.