TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Bundesliga · resolved market

Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-02-14?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,343,727
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,638,943

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,343,727 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 927 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe90b…5da2backed No24c292,534$70,208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70,208.269455.3%52 W · 42 L+5.6wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+12.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x94f0…cd31backed Yes76c291,237$221,340 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69,896.86540%2 W · 3 L-1.5wins-0.30per pick70cpaid-45.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Yes77c278,409$213,067 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65,342.3233945.7%155 W · 184 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9cb9…32f2backed No24c258,000$61,866 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61,866.283429.4%10 W · 24 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick29cpaid+19.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x3cc6…9df6backed Yes78c202,627$157,637 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44,989.791526.7%4 W · 11 L-3.4wins-0.23per pick49cpaid-42.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x07b8…8e25backed Yes75c180,000$135,709 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44,290.55560%3 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.11per pick71cpaid-15%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3b5c…126ebacked No22c147,431$33,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33,00027138.4%104 W · 167 L-9.0wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-17%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa49b…4c40backed Yes76c135,460$103,184 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32,276.38850%4 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-30.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdb27…c56ebacked No26c93,290$24,255 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24,255.48944.4%4 W · 5 L+1.5wins+0.17per pick28cpaid+74%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2759…2b38backed No24c88,936$21,744 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21,744.283132.3%10 W · 21 L+2.5wins+0.08per pick24cpaid+26.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf8a7…6fa3backed Yes76c85,000$64,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20,4001100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x37e0…024ebacked No24c80,700$19,675 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19,6753534.3%12 W · 23 L-2.2wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-7.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed No24c64,154$15,310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,310.3469851.9%362 W · 336 L+22.3wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+9.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed No14c63,529$9,060 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,060.123,28442.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L-74.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5c3a…020bbacked No23c60,000$13,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,8003250%16 W · 16 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x163e…dc5bbacked No25c40,000$10,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,00010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa196…5b78backed No23c30,015$7,031 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,031.389831.6%31 W · 67 L-6.5wins-0.07per pick38cpaid-26%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xecfc…cd05backed Yes77c30,000$22,973 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,027.1810361.2%63 W · 40 L+8.2wins+0.08per pick53cpaid+12.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe2cf…d1e7backed Yes77c28,797$22,044 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,753.35580%4 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.24per pick56cpaid+35.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked No23c28,598$6,609 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,609.291,68145.2%759 W · 922 L+6.8wins0.00per pick45cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd267…9dc6backed No24c26,535$6,493 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,493.273333.3%11 W · 22 L+2.1wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+15.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7865…4af9backed No24c23,672$5,681 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,681.24524.4%11 W · 34 L-3.5wins-0.08per pick32cpaid-5.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed No24c22,477$5,421 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,421.2576234.8%265 W · 497 L+9.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked No23c22,401$5,154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,154.081,35550.9%690 W · 665 L+12.7wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb7f5…c669backed No23c20,000$4,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,599.981526.7%4 W · 11 L-3.3wins-0.22per pick49cpaid-50.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x585c…f0a7backed No23c19,000$4,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,4005923.7%14 W · 45 L-6.1wins-0.10per pick34cpaid+8.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x3e73…c4ecbacked No1c18,833$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.062213.6%3 W · 19 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick10cpaid+287.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa42e…9a1cbacked No12c17,955$2,137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,136.65666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.5wins+0.25per pick42cpaid+21%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x23c8…f293backed No24c17,688$4,245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,245.123154.8%17 W · 14 L+3.1wins+0.10per pick45cpaid+26.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x9ae6…3cbebacked No24c15,682$3,824 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,824.4560%0 W · 6 L-2.6wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x160b…4296backed No23c15,065$3,465 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,465.0338748.3%187 W · 200 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-3.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x177e…d967backed Yes75c14,640$10,980 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,6601100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc57f…e9d1backed Yes75c14,200$10,650 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,550250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-33.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd178…6703backed Yes76c14,000$10,640 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,3601553.3%8 W · 7 L+1.3wins+0.09per pick45cpaid-4.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x44c5…8d45backed Yes78c12,877$10,088 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,788.8416045%72 W · 88 L+5.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+9.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4133…5e70backed No15c10,278$1,546 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,545.7375142.5%319 W · 432 L-26.7wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-14.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x005c…a987backed No23c10,000$2,274 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,273.8611354.9%62 W · 51 L+8.0wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+16.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x3212…634ebacked No22c8,520$1,915 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,9151947.4%9 W · 10 L+1.7wins+0.09per pick39cpaid+48.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfbf3…b218backed No25c8,018$2,004 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,004.482740.7%11 W · 16 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick44cpaid+12%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8738…222bbacked No25c8,000$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,000333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.15per pick48cpaid-40.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9748…b6a2backed No25c7,850$1,962 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,962.3810%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7b2c…af48backed No24c7,200$1,746 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,746.2456547.8%270 W · 295 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x712f…bcd9backed Yes76c6,852$5,207 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,644.461100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xebb4…1374backed No23c6,123$1,429 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,428.87333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-9.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdc9f…905bbacked Yes76c6,052$4,570 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,482.484837.5%18 W · 30 L-4.6wins-0.10per pick47cpaid-29%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xad6a…9dbdbacked No24c6,000$1,440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,4402218.2%4 W · 18 L-1.6wins-0.07per pick26cpaid-1.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x803b…3134backed No24c5,698$1,368 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,367.620%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9225…00eebacked No24c5,684$1,364 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,364.25250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-16.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdf37…8b49backed No25c5,232$1,282 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,282.282429.2%7 W · 17 L-3.5wins-0.14per pick44cpaid-31.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked No18c5,130$929 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$928.532,53839.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L-8.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-11.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7298…fe8dbacked No25c5,040$1,260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,2608037.5%30 W · 50 L+0.3wins0.00per pick37cpaid-11%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x201c…58bfbacked No25c5,000$1,250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,250540%2 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-16.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc949…fa93backed No24c5,000$1,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,2001457.1%8 W · 6 L+1.2wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+7.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed No18c4,966$887 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$886.791,01344.5%451 W · 562 L-8.2wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-20.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb552…94a8backed No24c4,642$1,127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,127.3610154.5%55 W · 46 L+4.1wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+5.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7d80…ba3dbacked No24c4,620$1,109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,108.8714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.7wins-0.24per pick38cpaid-72%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xaf2a…0525backed No25c4,600$1,150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,1501241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-15.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x736f…d0c5backed Yes75c4,548$3,411 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,137475%3 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick75cpaid+1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb8c8…d8a4backed No24c4,167$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0002263.6%14 W · 8 L+1.6wins+0.07per pick56cpaid+2.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe0db…f44ebacked No23c4,000$920 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9205461.1%33 W · 21 L+5.5wins+0.10per pick51cpaid+22.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd8db…ccfbbacked Yes74c4,000$2,960 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,0402055%11 W · 9 L-1.7wins-0.09per pick64cpaid-10.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1c86…15c0backed Yes77c3,811$2,929 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$881.9217652.3%92 W · 84 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x274f…fbf4backed Yes76c3,700$2,812 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8882290.9%20 W · 2 L+4.5wins+0.21per pick70cpaid+29.7%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xb40f…a5b1backed No24c3,671$881 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$880.95728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.8wins+0.11per pick18cpaid+87%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x61bb…5854backed Yes76c3,510$2,654 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8561861.1%11 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick61cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa52e…453fbacked No25c3,433$849 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$849.3740%0 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7617…0982backed Yes75c3,376$2,532 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$844333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-55.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa220…1aefbacked Yes75c3,259$2,444 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$814.751100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x412f…30fabacked No24c3,144$755 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$754.562441.7%10 W · 14 L0.0wins0.00per pick42cpaid-3.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd05f…8777backed Yes75c3,014$2,250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$763.626126.2%16 W · 45 L-7.8wins-0.13per pick39cpaid-52.9%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x7313…8247backed Yes76c2,990$2,263 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$726.861100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+32.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7b0b…57d5backed Yes76c2,836$2,155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$680.64333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-56.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6d75…6972backed Yes75c2,735$2,051 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$683.752100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+44.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7447…c413backed Yes75c2,700$2,025 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$674.91266.7%8 W · 4 L+1.1wins+0.09per pick57cpaid+17.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0d52…834ebacked No24c2,640$634 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$633.61030%3 W · 7 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick27cpaid+36.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4944…e4c7backed Yes76c2,632$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$631.581776.5%13 W · 4 L+1.9wins+0.11per pick65cpaid+9.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe81e…3640backed Yes76c2,632$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$631.581631.3%5 W · 11 L-3.5wins-0.22per pick53cpaid-52.9%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x6d04…7a5fbacked No23c2,600$598 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$598520%1 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.17per pick37cpaid-54.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa73b…9766backed Yes76c2,500$1,900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6002100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+48.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x67a1…75abbacked Yes76c2,400$1,822 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$578560%3 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick69cpaid-15.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9379…1173backed Yes76c2,394$1,820 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$574.611100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc3fc…5176backed No26c2,283$589 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$589.32948.3%14 W · 15 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x12e9…e484backed Yes74c2,232$1,652 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$580.3650%3 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.14per pick64cpaid-13.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked No22c2,223$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$499.939459.6%56 W · 38 L+6.2wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+13.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf24b…d4cebacked Yes74c2,203$1,630 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$572.71275%9 W · 3 L+2.4wins+0.20per pick55cpaid+23.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xcbf4…e3a6backed No23c2,200$506 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$506771.4%5 W · 2 L+2.3wins+0.33per pick38cpaid+58.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x988d…9899backed No24c2,195$527 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$526.8830%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe1e6…298dbacked Yes76c2,148$1,632 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$515.43250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick69cpaid-34.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x97f9…0aebbacked Yes75c2,128$1,596 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5323141.9%13 W · 18 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0724…9091backed No25c2,062$516 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$515.53922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.08per pick30cpaid+10.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe831…a42abacked Yes76c2,040$1,550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$489.61145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-28.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5781…bbfbbacked No24c2,040$490 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$489.55785.7%6 W · 1 L+2.2wins+0.32per pick54cpaid+49.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x7142…e23ebacked Yes76c2,019$1,534 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$484.47333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick49cpaid-56.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2a32…0188backed Yes76c2,000$1,510 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4902378.3%18 W · 5 L+2.7wins+0.12per pick67cpaid+17.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x1624…bf63backed No22c2,000$439 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$439.3713139.7%52 W · 79 L+3.5wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-28.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa569…08dfbacked Yes76c2,000$1,520 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4801546.7%7 W · 8 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9a9c…c9aebacked No24c2,000$480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4801533.3%5 W · 10 L-1.2wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-35.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4fad…fdc0backed No3c2,000$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$603627.8%10 W · 26 L+1.8wins+0.05per pick23cpaid-13.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa3d3…f2bcbacked No23c2,000$460 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4608251.2%42 W · 40 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7c38…de5abacked No26c2,000$520 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5206053.3%32 W · 28 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-9.8%equal weight510.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.