Bundesliga · resolved market
Will SV Werder Bremen vs. FC Bayern München end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8db4655819d294ceecc497a51785cdc3accc8833e939cbf0e9305fa965d70ded
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $109,664
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $118,581
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $109,664 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2759…2b38backed Yes | 16c | 23,872$3,820 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,819.5 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | +2.5wins | +0.08per pick | 24cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb27…c56ebacked Yes | 15c | 5,022$753 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$753.28 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.17per pick | 28cpaid | +74%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb0d…1d6dbacked Yes | 2c | 5,000$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +2.4wins | +0.18per pick | 20cpaid | +199.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 15c | 4,078$620 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$619.52 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb952…3561backed Yes | 15c | 3,399$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$509.85 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf72a…944ebacked Yes | 15c | 3,374$506 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$506.1 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x624d…91fcbacked Yes | 16c | 3,255$521 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$520.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes | 15c | 2,869$427 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$426.62 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ae7…d452backed Yes | 15c | 2,840$426 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$426 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd30…47bbbacked Yes | 15c | 2,740$411 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$411 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe831…a42abacked Yes | 15c | 2,040$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcd3…246abacked Yes | 16c | 1,333$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Yes | 15c | 1,032$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.12 | 84 | 20.2%17 W · 67 L | -8.7wins | -0.10per pick | 31cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x49ed…a2fbbacked Yes | 15c | 915$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.25 | 48 | 37.5%18 W · 30 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8351…9bebbacked Yes | 15c | 666.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 49 | 24.5%12 W · 37 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4c5…50cdbacked Yes | 16c | 630$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.8 | 45 | 42.2%19 W · 26 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Yes | 16c | 625$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 192 | 54.7%105 W · 87 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc913…488bbacked Yes | 3c | 499.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x865f…e88ebacked Yes | 15c | 431.08$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.25 | 343 | 42%144 W · 199 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x63f9…0f1bbacked Yes | 15c | 400$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37eb…6bf7backed Yes | 15c | 344.87$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.73 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4706…286ebacked Yes | 15c | 300$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 160 | 45%72 W · 88 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa286…3395backed Yes | 17c | 295.13$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8675…e850backed Yes | 15c | 243.48$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.52 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Yes | 17c | 236$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.12 | 339 | 45.7%155 W · 184 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc56b…fe0abacked Yes | 16c | 207.88$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.26 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +65.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5773…ac11backed Yes | 15c | 200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 311 | 45%140 W · 171 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Yes | 14c | 186.83$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.16 | 698 | 51.9%362 W · 336 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc0a7…90f4backed Yes | 15c | 176.67$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b90…30b6backed Yes | 17c | 152.94$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 52 | 50%26 W · 26 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Yes | 14c | 150$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 636 | 45.1%287 W · 349 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0308…eee1backed Yes | 15c | 149$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x814c…7ffabacked Yes | 15c | 143.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 194 | 46.4%90 W · 104 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac01…2d77backed Yes | 15c | 120$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf800…bdbabacked Yes | 14c | 110$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 115 | 43.5%50 W · 65 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 388 | 45.6%177 W · 211 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfccd…02d6backed Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 46 | 71.7%33 W · 13 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xace9…f74abacked Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b35…12b3backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Yes | 11c | 95.57$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.33 | 245 | 41.6%102 W · 143 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -14%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb2…46abbacked Yes | 15c | 95.33$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x531a…8681backed Yes | 14c | 91.11$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f27…fc32backed Yes | 16c | 90$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +60.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed56…a1f2backed Yes | 15c | 75.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78f7…2c5dbacked Yes | 15c | 71.7$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.76 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8ba…068dbacked Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.22per pick | 38cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will SV Werder Bremen vs. FC Bayern München end in a draw?this page
- Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-02-14?Yes won
- Will SV Werder Bremen win on 2026-02-14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.