Bundesliga · resolved market
Will SV Werder Bremen win on 2026-02-14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xddee4f9280a08a495b9a50935f322e3f8a52ba2633242ea4dd2287bcb0a471f8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $947,531
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $957,136
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $947,531 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdb27…c56ebacked Yes | 10c | 550,000$55,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55,000 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.17per pick | 28cpaid | +74%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2759…2b38backed Yes | 10c | 50,000$5,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,999.99 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | +2.5wins | +0.08per pick | 24cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x44a1…bd21backed Yes | 0c | 43,388$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.1 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes | 10c | 35,293$3,518 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,518.08 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2165…f598backed Yes | 9c | 30,000$2,700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,700 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6ae…4df8backed Yes | 10c | 26,346$2,635 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,634.64 | 44 | 56.8%25 W · 19 L | +3.9wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed Yes | 10c | 26,250$2,625 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,625 | 387 | 48.3%187 W · 200 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Yes | 10c | 18,832$1,815 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,815.14 | 751 | 42.5%319 W · 432 L | -26.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 9c | 18,130$1,604 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,603.76 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…fdc0backed Yes | 0c | 13,309$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.93 | 36 | 27.8%10 W · 26 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Yes | 9c | 9,794$882 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$881.58 | 698 | 51.9%362 W · 336 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f2f…be86backed Yes | 10c | 7,500$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4059…23dabacked Yes | 0c | 6,076$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.08 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa196…5b78backed Yes | 9c | 6,013$511 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$511.33 | 98 | 31.6%31 W · 67 L | -6.5wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -26%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Yes | 10c | 4,347$438 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$437.57 | 762 | 34.8%265 W · 497 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf72a…944ebacked Yes | 9c | 3,373$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$303.57 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x624d…91fcbacked Yes | 11c | 3,255$358 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$358.05 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ae7…d452backed Yes | 9c | 2,840$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd30…47bbbacked Yes | 9c | 2,740$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.6 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97f9…0aebbacked Yes | 9c | 2,128$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.52 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7298…fe8dbacked Yes | 10c | 2,100$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 80 | 37.5%30 W · 50 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe9…5e52backed Yes | 10c | 2,050$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0d2…ad14backed Yes | 11c | 1,173$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.01 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x69ff…0d1dbacked Yes | 9c | 1,002$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.18 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b49…69c1backed Yes | 4c | 1,000$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.16 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x07dc…aefabacked Yes | 9c | 1,000$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6d4…e192backed Yes | 9c | 950$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa62d…92e0backed Yes | 11c | 772.73$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 49 | 20.4%10 W · 39 L | -4.5wins | -0.09per pick | 30cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2f9a…7ef9backed Yes | 10c | 750$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ab0…f2d7backed Yes | 11c | 725$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.75 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ce7…5042backed Yes | 10c | 629.6$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43a1…2425backed Yes | 8c | 590.99$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.28 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | -2.4wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f7f…d808backed Yes | 10c | 570.1$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7bc3…d183backed Yes | 9c | 560$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52c3…a73abacked Yes | 10c | 429.4$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ea9…9da6backed Yes | 11c | 408.45$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc6f…5d6fbacked Yes | 11c | 393.82$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.32 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | -3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf227…7da3backed Yes | 10c | 388.8$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a4f…2a61backed Yes | 9c | 385$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.65 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ae…f407backed Yes | 11c | 373.45$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.08 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95d9…ab03backed Yes | 6c | 361.37$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.15 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x814c…7ffabacked Yes | 9c | 340.67$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.66 | 194 | 46.4%90 W · 104 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4706…286ebacked Yes | 9c | 300$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 160 | 45%72 W · 88 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9424…5946backed Yes | 10c | 300$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc647…84d9backed Yes | 11c | 298$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2464…d054backed Yes | 11c | 281.92$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd84…9f62backed Yes | 11c | 250$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf5d0…d9e8backed Yes | 10c | 240$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +3.3wins | +0.14per pick | 45cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8675…e850backed Yes | 10c | 239.47$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.95 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x536d…c06bbacked Yes | 9c | 234.5$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1dbf…7776backed Yes | 11c | 217.27$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.9 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5773…ac11backed Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 311 | 45%140 W · 171 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e7d…4a9bbacked Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 167 | 50.9%85 W · 82 L | +9.6wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0f18…ce56backed Yes | 11c | 185.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b90…30b6backed Yes | 12c | 166.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 52 | 50%26 W · 26 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdce0…2dafbacked Yes | 10c | 160$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0aab…7680backed Yes | 10c | 160$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Yes | 6c | 155.84$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.06 | 782 | 48.8%382 W · 400 L | -28.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Yes | 7c | 155.55$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.19 | 1,013 | 44.5%451 W · 562 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7253…0558backed Yes | 10c | 150$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Yes | 10c | 150$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 636 | 45.1%287 W · 349 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf800…bdbabacked Yes | 9c | 139.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 115 | 43.5%50 W · 65 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1466…3bfbbacked Yes | 10c | 127.7$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.77 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ad9…5562backed Yes | 11c | 124.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 16cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2afd…deb4backed Yes | 10c | 122.9$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb295…d1e7backed Yes | 10c | 120.09$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.01 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 33cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf876…8975backed Yes | 10c | 114.6$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.46 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x531a…8681backed Yes | 10c | 105.86$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3cbc…3b01backed Yes | 10c | 101.09$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.11 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4034…f52cbacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80a4…4191backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8bc5…8f21backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed56…a1f2backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will SV Werder Bremen win on 2026-02-14?this page
- Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-02-14?Yes won
- Will SV Werder Bremen vs. FC Bayern München end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.