TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NHL · resolved market

Blackhawks vs. Rangers

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Rangersof Blackhawks, Rangers
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,166,453
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,203,053

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,166,453 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 733 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NHL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x03e8…1697backed Blackhawks37c318,011$118,119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118,118.7467051%342 W · 328 L+9.3wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa710…23c4backed Rangers63c200,000$126,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73,999.8815054.7%82 W · 68 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-0.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xb45a…192cbacked Rangers61c200,000$122,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77,999.8422443.8%98 W · 126 L-5.3wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-6.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5bec…b215backed Blackhawks39c175,305$68,369 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68,368.9816442.7%70 W · 94 L-3.8wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-6.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa5ea…d96abacked Blackhawks39c150,000$58,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58,499.9910840.7%44 W · 64 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc65c…ea39backed Rangers63c100,000$63,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37,0008657%49 W · 37 L+2.0wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+7.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x37c1…c53abacked Rangers63c61,692$38,866 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22,826.0651550.7%261 W · 254 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2a2c…9bc1backed Rangers61c56,588$34,519 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22,069.2540351.9%209 W · 194 L+6.9wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdd92…6b2abacked Rangers61c50,000$30,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19,50014650.7%74 W · 72 L+8.5wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+13.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb6ae…4df8backed Rangers63c49,585$31,239 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,346.4536748%176 W · 191 L-12.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-6.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xaa07…2125backed Rangers61c34,999$21,350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,649.771,07049.9%534 W · 536 L+22.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa1f1…c5f8backed Blackhawks37c33,072$12,237 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,236.641450%7 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xec7e…5fddbacked Blackhawks37c25,917$9,589 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,589.293951.3%20 W · 19 L-0.1wins0.00per pick52cpaid-5.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Rangers61c20,719$12,716 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,003.171,55551.4%800 W · 755 L+12.2wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe790…eadcbacked Rangers64c16,578$10,619 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,95927448.9%134 W · 140 L-6.4wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-13.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1925…4654backed Blackhawks38c15,971$6,069 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,069.0311644.8%52 W · 64 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-4.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Rangers62c15,264$9,464 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,800.471,19050.7%603 W · 587 L+13.3wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xacb2…b989backed Rangers61c12,500$7,625 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,87512950.4%65 W · 64 L+10.7wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+13.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9e2f…ec47backed Rangers61c12,000$7,320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,6804546.7%21 W · 24 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-5.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5116…58c4backed Blackhawks38c10,694$4,085 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,084.5275251.7%389 W · 363 L-2.1wins0.00per pick52cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc49f…9e05backed Rangers63c10,000$6,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,70026058.8%153 W · 107 L+17.7wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+15%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xbd09…a188backed Blackhawks39c10,000$3,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,90061748.5%299 W · 318 L+0.4wins0.00per pick48cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6b6f…ce60backed Blackhawks37c9,839$3,640 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,640.422853.6%15 W · 13 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6203…6280backed Blackhawks39c8,200$3,198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,1983240.6%13 W · 19 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2586…c893backed Blackhawks39c7,000$2,730 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,730.0683652.8%441 W · 395 L+28.9wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x10d4…69ebbacked Blackhawks39c6,867$2,680 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,679.916752.7%88 W · 79 L+2.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed Rangers62c6,566$4,071 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,495.1385250.2%428 W · 424 L-26.2wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-6.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe3a8…06d9backed Blackhawks39c6,474$2,525 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,524.792035%7 W · 13 L-1.2wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-17.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Rangers62c6,093$3,777 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,315.1659450.8%302 W · 292 L+2.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3e04…564dbacked Blackhawks37c5,662$2,095 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,094.941,89152.4%991 W · 900 L+36.3wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x39ae…1aaabacked Blackhawks39c5,600$2,184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,18410%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe998…b7f0backed Blackhawks37c5,446$2,015 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,014.862846.4%13 W · 15 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfc08…a137backed Rangers61c5,329$3,269 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,059.8530259.6%180 W · 122 L+31.0wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+16.7%equal weight61+0.09 edge/pick
0x1467…4372backed Blackhawks39c5,128$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,00032151.7%166 W · 155 L-1.5wins0.00per pick52cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x617b…a499backed Rangers63c5,000$3,150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,85022747.6%108 W · 119 L-7.0wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8adc…bafcbacked Rangers62c5,000$3,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,9003351.5%17 W · 16 L-2.0wins-0.06per pick58cpaid-9.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x201c…58bfbacked Rangers62c5,000$3,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,9006640.9%27 W · 39 L-7.5wins-0.11per pick52cpaid-21%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x56c2…17bfbacked Blackhawks37c5,000$1,850 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,85025447.2%120 W · 134 L-1.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-4.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7b47…d615backed Rangers61c5,000$3,050 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,95019353.9%104 W · 89 L+7.1wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+6.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xebc7…4003backed Blackhawks37c5,000$1,850 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,85011553%61 W · 54 L+5.2wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf152…64aabacked Rangers61c5,000$3,050 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,949.9816656.6%94 W · 72 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3233…a4ddbacked Blackhawks37c4,760$1,761 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,761.22356.5%13 W · 10 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+5.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Rangers62c4,679$2,901 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,778.341,43450.8%728 W · 706 L-10.7wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc1ae…f001backed Blackhawks39c4,400$1,716 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,71614954.4%81 W · 68 L+9.5wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+13.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Rangers62c4,359$2,702 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,656.3145751.6%236 W · 221 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x39d3…9ef0backed Blackhawks37c4,295$1,589 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,589.1518641.9%78 W · 108 L-8.5wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-11.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2302…d6d2backed Rangers63c4,189$2,633 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,555.5737754.4%205 W · 172 L+5.9wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x02db…c3c6backed Rangers61c4,100$2,501 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,598.991100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+63.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe0db…f44ebacked Blackhawks38c4,000$1,520 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,52039752.1%207 W · 190 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe64f…7d71backed Blackhawks29c3,975$1,153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,152.73650%3 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-18.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf6d6…5e2dbacked Rangers61c3,600$2,196 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,4041100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+63.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe795…94cfbacked Blackhawks39c3,500$1,365 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,36510%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe2bb…ea55backed Blackhawks40c3,500$1,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,40027547.6%131 W · 144 L+0.5wins0.00per pick47cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc88b…af8bbacked Blackhawks37c3,498$1,295 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,295.16650%3 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+30.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x84f7…ade1backed Blackhawks39c3,395$1,324 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,324.051,02448.4%496 W · 528 L+1.3wins0.00per pick48cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0e40…a8d8backed Rangers61c3,000$1,830 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,170250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-18%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf679…16acbacked Blackhawks38c2,967$1,127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,127.273354.5%18 W · 15 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-13%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ebb…061abacked Rangers61c2,905$1,772 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,132.8724749.8%123 W · 124 L-10.3wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-8.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x039c…b202backed Blackhawks37c2,860$1,058 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,058.24738.3%18 W · 29 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4285…cfb5backed Rangers62c2,629$1,630 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$999.036758.2%39 W · 28 L+0.1wins0.00per pick58cpaid+3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2838…e27fbacked Blackhawks39c2,622$1,023 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,022.581656.3%9 W · 7 L+1.7wins+0.11per pick45cpaid+19.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x42b5…b5b6backed Blackhawks38c2,527$961 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$961.181,37749.1%676 W · 701 L+39.2wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x66b6…159dbacked Rangers62c2,500$1,550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$950850%4 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-12.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xba67…4727backed Rangers61c2,500$1,525 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97531848.7%155 W · 163 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xedf0…1e2abacked Blackhawks39c2,500$975 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97514940.9%61 W · 88 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-4.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfa5b…88acbacked Blackhawks40c2,495$998 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9982339.1%9 W · 14 L-2.2wins-0.10per pick49cpaid-17.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x21d4…84bdbacked Rangers62c2,465$1,528 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$936.524252.4%22 W · 20 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5d5e…7004backed Rangers61c2,461$1,501 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$959.798955.1%49 W · 40 L+9.3wins+0.10per pick45cpaid+16.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x32cc…68b3backed Blackhawks37c2,450$907 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$906.5233450.9%170 W · 164 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Blackhawks38c2,208$845 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$845.4361950.1%310 W · 309 L-7.6wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8753…85adbacked Rangers61c2,050$1,251 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$799.561959.1%366 W · 253 L+17.9wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbf26…6fe2backed Rangers62c2,002$1,241 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$760.6124952.2%130 W · 119 L+6.5wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9c4d…168cbacked Blackhawks39c2,000$780 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7801,08745.1%490 W · 597 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc974…b33bbacked Blackhawks37c1,967$728 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$727.7310146.5%47 W · 54 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xefde…6505backed Rangers62c1,953$1,211 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$742.0166552%346 W · 319 L+8.8wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8946…aa24backed Blackhawks39c1,874$731 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$730.86875%6 W · 2 L+2.1wins+0.26per pick49cpaid+50.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x07d9…a32ebacked Blackhawks39c1,874$731 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$730.86650%3 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+24.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6185…2965backed Blackhawks39c1,872$730 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7303450%17 W · 17 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+6.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Rangers71c1,833$1,306 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$527.0389636.9%331 W · 565 L-30.9wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-26.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4880…5626backed Rangers63c1,830$1,146 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$684.0513252.3%69 W · 63 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-1.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8c58…e330backed Rangers67c1,771$1,181 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$589.3142254.3%229 W · 193 L+18.3wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+5.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5e59…1520backed Rangers58c1,721$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$720.683754.1%20 W · 17 L+2.8wins+0.08per pick46cpaid+8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xefce…4e4abacked Rangers61c1,639$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$639.3421849.5%108 W · 110 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7e5c…b83dbacked Blackhawks39c1,600$624 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62410%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x71f9…16fbbacked Blackhawks39c1,600$624 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6242254.5%12 W · 10 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+10.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3e58…3864backed Blackhawks39c1,549$604 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$603.966246.8%29 W · 33 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Blackhawks39c1,500$578 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$577.6276950.3%387 W · 382 L+1.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a72…33eebacked Rangers69c1,496$1,026 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$470.431,34554.8%737 W · 608 L+21.0wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe05f…1fe3backed Blackhawks39c1,462$570 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5708350.6%42 W · 41 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-2.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Rangers62c1,393$864 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$529.3479350.1%397 W · 396 L-11.5wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-3.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4563…156abacked Blackhawks37c1,351$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50030%0 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xdbbd…d6f0backed Rangers75c1,333$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$333.332060%12 W · 8 L+2.9wins+0.15per pick45cpaid+33%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xf796…3ac5backed Blackhawks39c1,282$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5002119%4 W · 17 L-1.9wins-0.09per pick28cpaid-28.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xeb4e…c3c3backed Blackhawks39c1,205$470 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47021534.4%74 W · 141 L+4.2wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed Rangers71c1,160$828 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$332.2228340.3%114 W · 169 L-24.4wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-26.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x1df2…89a0backed Blackhawks18c1,135$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202.1933234.3%114 W · 218 L-4.7wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-24.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfb68…a240backed Rangers59c1,094$645 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$448.4950049.6%248 W · 252 L+16.4wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Rangers62c1,071$664 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$406.651,09250.4%550 W · 542 L+12.7wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x79ac…9c87backed Rangers61c1,069$652 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$416.915100%5 W · 0 L+2.3wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+85.2%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x6658…8afdbacked Rangers62c1,017$631 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$386.46666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.18per pick49cpaid+41.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.