NHL · resolved market
Blackhawks vs. Rangers: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf9ffadf4c91b07627884a07bf7e1821c7b440cf5ae15da2c335e0b994d0eab2c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,619
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,901
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,619 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbf90…8e17backed Under | 21c | 574.92$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.73 | 339 | 41.3%140 W · 199 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4e6…4a4dbacked Over | 79c | 511.39$404 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.39 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -2.9wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x913b…0852backed Over | 65c | 359$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.48 | 303 | 48.8%148 W · 155 L | -12.7wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0593…ee3abacked Under | 25c | 336.36$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.58 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0cea…cdc7backed Under | 23c | 200.43$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fa2…b8e3backed Under | 29c | 172.41$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 72c | 172.26$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.39 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce9d…3c05backed Under | 42c | 142.86$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 254 | 49.6%126 W · 128 L | -15.0wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9a3b…b968backed Under | 46c | 131.69$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 66 | 59.1%39 W · 27 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d98…2fc5backed Under | 22c | 129.88$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.57 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Over | 67c | 112$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.96 | 1,384 | 47.1%652 W · 732 L | +25.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked Under | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 432 | 50.9%220 W · 212 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab41…c453backed Over | 77c | 74.3$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.36 | 1,431 | 58.3%834 W · 597 L | +81.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf5…3e16backed Under | 30c | 66.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x370e…5df3backed Under | 26c | 53$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.78 | 91 | 60.4%55 W · 36 L | +10.7wins | +0.12per pick | 49cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…ebbfbacked Over | 74c | 53$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.78 | 90 | 52.2%47 W · 43 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +46.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Over | 76c | 48$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.44 | 498 | 51%254 W · 244 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 77c | 45.45$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.46 | 1,190 | 50.7%603 W · 587 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe722…57c5backed Over | 79c | 35.71$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 199 | 51.8%103 W · 96 L | -9.8wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd8…9a1cbacked Over | 54c | 31.12$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.23 | 239 | 50.6%121 W · 118 L | +11.3wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked Over | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 234 | 50%117 W · 117 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x635b…1013backed Over | 79c | 16$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.36 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x299f…2140backed Over | 78c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.52 | 388 | 49.5%192 W · 196 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1758…af06backed Over | 78c | 15.38$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.38 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 61cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73b6…cbc2backed Over | 78c | 15.38$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.38 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.26per pick | 55cpaid | -63.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5c…26a3backed Over | 78c | 14.1$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.1 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81da…421bbacked Over | 78c | 14.1$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.1 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.24per pick | 57cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbbbb…0a69backed Over | 78c | 13.1$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.88 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Blackhawks vs. Rangers: O/U 4.5this page
- Blackhawks vs. RangersRangers won
- Blackhawks vs. Rangers: O/U 5.5Over won
- Blackhawks vs. Rangers: O/U 6.5Over won
- Blackhawks vs. Rangers: O/U 7.5Under won
- Spread: Rangers (-1.5)Rangers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.