TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NHL · resolved market

Blackhawks vs. Flyers

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Flyersof Blackhawks, Flyers
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$986,056
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$998,979

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $986,056 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 511 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NHL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x03e8…1697backed Blackhawks43c526,807$227,615 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$227,614.5267051%342 W · 328 L+9.3wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb45a…192cbacked Flyers56c100,000$56,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44,00022443.8%98 W · 126 L-5.3wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-6.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaa07…2125backed Blackhawks42c77,182$32,387 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32,387.111,07049.9%534 W · 536 L+22.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3b5c…126ebacked Flyers56c67,000$37,520 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29,48024349.8%121 W · 122 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3833…33d1backed Flyers60c50,000$30,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20,0003100%3 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+77.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xdd92…6b2abacked Blackhawks40c45,421$18,368 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,368.2214650.7%74 W · 72 L+8.5wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+13.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc660…bd28backed Flyers56c41,376$23,334 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,042.5548549.7%241 W · 244 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc257…358ebacked Flyers57c40,000$22,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,20048545.4%220 W · 265 L-7.8wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-6.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Flyers57c34,193$19,418 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,775.1359450.8%302 W · 292 L+2.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Flyers58c32,939$18,999 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,939.7545751.6%236 W · 221 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec7e…5fddbacked Flyers58c30,983$17,898 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,084.583951.3%20 W · 19 L-0.1wins0.00per pick52cpaid-5.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Flyers57c28,185$15,959 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,225.671,19050.7%603 W · 587 L+13.3wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Flyers58c28,070$16,318 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,752.131,09250.4%550 W · 542 L+12.7wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Flyers58c25,789$14,868 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,920.9661950.1%310 W · 309 L-7.6wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9c95…ed41backed Flyers57c23,173$13,177 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,995.855841.4%24 W · 34 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-8.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb6ae…4df8backed Blackhawks42c22,328$9,378 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,377.736748%176 W · 191 L-12.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-6.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6b6f…ce60backed Flyers57c21,153$12,107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,046.052853.6%15 W · 13 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf2f6…5817backed Flyers61c20,000$12,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,799.994650%23 W · 23 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe790…eadcbacked Flyers65c19,286$12,457 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,828.6227448.9%134 W · 140 L-6.4wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-13.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x37c1…c53abacked Blackhawks42c18,228$7,656 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,655.8751550.7%261 W · 254 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Flyers56c14,160$7,972 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,187.462,66451.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L+58.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7b10…acabbacked Flyers58c12,085$7,009 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,075.73953.8%21 W · 18 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x06b2…0c61backed Blackhawks0c10,615$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.71100%0 W · 10 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Flyers58c10,539$6,114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,425.781,55551.4%800 W · 755 L+12.2wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfb68…a240backed Blackhawks39c10,000$3,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,90050049.6%248 W · 252 L+16.4wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Flyers57c9,923$5,698 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,225.0179350.1%397 W · 396 L-11.5wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-3.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xbd09…a188backed Blackhawks37c9,499$3,511 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,510.8861748.5%299 W · 318 L+0.4wins0.00per pick48cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x61f6…e497backed Flyers57c9,055$5,161 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,893.6510066%66 W · 34 L+8.6wins+0.09per pick57cpaid+15.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x0a24…4a1fbacked Flyers57c8,079$4,605 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,474.162025%5 W · 15 L-5.2wins-0.26per pick51cpaid-48.6%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0xd696…8a49backed Flyers58c7,290$4,228 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,061.851452.3%269 W · 245 L+17.1wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+7.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x32dd…c881backed Flyers57c7,000$3,990 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,010.11675%12 W · 4 L+3.0wins+0.19per pick56cpaid+35.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc49f…9e05backed Blackhawks44c7,000$3,080 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,079.9826058.8%153 W · 107 L+17.7wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+15%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3e04…564dbacked Blackhawks40c7,000$2,822 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,822.451,89152.4%991 W · 900 L+36.3wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3c7e…a65fbacked Blackhawks4c6,200$237 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$236.5960337.5%226 W · 377 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-8.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Blackhawks41c6,036$2,464 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,464.091,43450.8%728 W · 706 L-10.7wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xebc7…4003backed Flyers56c6,000$3,360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,64011553%61 W · 54 L+5.2wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed Flyers59c5,883$3,471 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,412.0585250.2%428 W · 424 L-26.2wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-6.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaaad…8eaebacked Flyers58c5,591$3,243 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,348.224100%4 W · 0 L+1.9wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+95.7%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x6a22…c593backed Flyers59c5,299$3,126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,172.64666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.09per pick57cpaid+21.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Flyers57c5,155$2,954 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,200.811,23053.7%661 W · 569 L-9.1wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x607d…53a1backed Blackhawks39c5,034$1,963 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,963.213446.3%62 W · 72 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2eed…85a9backed Flyers57c4,900$2,793 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,1077358.9%43 W · 30 L+4.1wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+14%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa827…dcc2backed Flyers59c4,900$2,891 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,0094100%4 W · 0 L+2.0wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+99.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x32cc…68b3backed Blackhawks43c4,860$2,094 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,093.7433450.9%170 W · 164 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2061…8ec9backed Flyers57c4,555$2,574 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,980.874139%16 W · 25 L-3.3wins-0.08per pick47cpaid-17.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Flyers62c4,465$2,773 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,692.031,30152.6%684 W · 617 L+23.7wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2f5b…e747backed Flyers60c4,200$2,520 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,68043548.5%211 W · 224 L-7.4wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Blackhawks43c4,010$1,724 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,724.441,44149.2%709 W · 732 L+6.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe4fc…8af7backed Flyers60c4,000$2,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,60060249.5%298 W · 304 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1418…6fefbacked Flyers60c4,000$2,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,60027850.4%140 W · 138 L+1.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc463…9a2fbacked Flyers59c3,976$2,336 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,639.9926750.2%134 W · 133 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xce39…04d6backed Flyers57c3,951$2,252 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,698.8417042.4%72 W · 98 L-4.1wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-2.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8d10…940abacked Flyers61c3,879$2,354 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,524.919659.4%57 W · 39 L+7.5wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+15.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6239…1d79backed Blackhawks44c3,750$1,650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,6507755.8%43 W · 34 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+4.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0a77…9d74backed Flyers56c3,673$2,057 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,616.2252050%260 W · 260 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x84f7…ade1backed Flyers57c3,625$2,066 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,558.751,02448.4%496 W · 528 L+1.3wins0.00per pick48cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa9e8…731cbacked Flyers57c3,622$2,065 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,557.66835.3%24 W · 44 L-9.6wins-0.14per pick49cpaid-31.7%equal weight38-0.10 edge/pick
0x8946…aa24backed Flyers58c3,570$2,071 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,499.4875%6 W · 2 L+2.1wins+0.26per pick49cpaid+50.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1467…4372backed Flyers57c3,509$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,508.7732151.7%166 W · 155 L-1.5wins0.00per pick52cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe7a2…ae70backed Flyers56c3,463$1,939 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,523.712047.5%57 W · 63 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb9b4…75a0backed Flyers59c3,390$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,389.838544.7%38 W · 47 L-4.1wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-10.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbad2…5296backed Flyers60c3,038$1,823 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,215.1289249.9%445 W · 447 L+10.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x617b…a499backed Blackhawks42c3,000$1,260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,26022747.6%108 W · 119 L-7.0wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4488…e319backed Blackhawks43c2,999$1,289 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,289.3727243.4%118 W · 154 L-16.8wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-11.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x10d4…d953backed Blackhawks43c2,810$1,208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,208.2944551.2%228 W · 217 L+16.4wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+9.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x13a1…d9bcbacked Blackhawks18c2,721$479 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$478.7257157.8%330 W · 241 L+12.7wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xef23…5b60backed Flyers57c2,687$1,532 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,155.5264242.2%271 W · 371 L-6.1wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc88b…af8bbacked Flyers56c2,666$1,493 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,173650%3 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+30.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb552…94a8backed Flyers57c2,562$1,460 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,101.6661953.8%333 W · 286 L+13.2wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+4.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd37a…2358backed Flyers58c2,542$1,481 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,060.9186549.1%425 W · 440 L-4.6wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbf26…6fe2backed Flyers57c2,512$1,432 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,080.2824952.2%130 W · 119 L+6.5wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6ff9…a78bbacked Flyers57c2,498$1,424 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,074.346262.9%39 W · 23 L+5.6wins+0.09per pick54cpaid+12.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x56c9…afe7backed Blackhawks42c2,381$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000540%2 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-15.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x986c…3180backed Flyers57c2,356$1,337 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,018.8545955.1%253 W · 206 L+1.0wins0.00per pick55cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd3fa…a26cbacked Blackhawks44c2,273$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000.1215145%68 W · 83 L-7.3wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-9.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x42b5…b5b6backed Blackhawks38c2,225$846 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$845.541,37749.1%676 W · 701 L+39.2wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Flyers58c2,116$1,234 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$881.421,53051.7%791 W · 739 L+22.5wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Flyers78c2,022$1,575 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$447.462,31446.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L-7.5wins0.00per pick47cpaid-5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9c4d…168cbacked Blackhawks44c2,000$880 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8801,08745.1%490 W · 597 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed Flyers57c2,000$1,140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$859.9958352.1%304 W · 279 L+1.9wins0.00per pick52cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Blackhawks7c1,925$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.161,67954.4%914 W · 765 L+36.6wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4bf2…d280backed Flyers58c1,907$1,099 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$807.9613845.7%63 W · 75 L-5.4wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-9.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6c16…8bfabacked Flyers56c1,904$1,066 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$837.763764.9%24 W · 13 L+2.6wins+0.07per pick58cpaid+11.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5628…abbcbacked Flyers57c1,900$1,083 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81750251.2%257 W · 245 L-2.4wins0.00per pick52cpaid-4.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xba67…4727backed Flyers56c1,771$992 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$779.2431848.7%155 W · 163 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4f91…c7dabacked Flyers57c1,758$1,002 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$755.89580%4 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.22per pick58cpaid+33.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xefde…6505backed Flyers58c1,732$1,001 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$731.1666552%346 W · 319 L+8.8wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6bb3…758ebacked Flyers58c1,673$970 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$702.6617247.7%82 W · 90 L-6.4wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-8.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xeca9…f74dbacked Flyers57c1,579$900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$678.952025%5 W · 15 L-5.2wins-0.26per pick51cpaid-48.6%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0xc3fc…5176backed Flyers58c1,552$900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$651.7211243.8%49 W · 63 L-8.6wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-14.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0fa3…172fbacked Flyers57c1,501$856 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$645.436256.5%35 W · 27 L+3.0wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x299f…2140backed Blackhawks43c1,500$645 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$645.0638849.5%192 W · 196 L+0.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x765c…0779backed Flyers57c1,500$861 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$639.4740049.3%197 W · 203 L-4.4wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd039…2532backed Flyers60c1,500$900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6002958.6%17 W · 12 L+2.0wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+13.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x733d…1ae7backed Blackhawks39c1,500$585 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58521048.1%101 W · 109 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Flyers58c1,443$834 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$608.732,11242.9%907 W · 1,205 L-10.1wins0.00per pick43cpaid-9.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x39c6…0ac1backed Flyers59c1,426$836 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$589.921549.3%106 W · 109 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-0.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a72…33eebacked Blackhawks12c1,373$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164.751,34554.8%737 W · 608 L+21.0wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5919…95acbacked Blackhawks39c1,316$513 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$513.3112152.1%63 W · 58 L-2.7wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-5.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2dc4…0c92backed Flyers58c1,308$756 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$551.8241354.5%225 W · 188 L+17.6wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+9.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.