NHL · resolved market
Blackhawks vs. Flyers: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7e0c4cf2940467e161bce798bb0c5721844afab0e1c6d4ac775dfd3b0f0d4aa1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,642
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,369
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,642 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 61c | 1,759$1,081 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,080.92 | 893 | 55.5%496 W · 397 L | +67.6wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 37c | 736.58$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$466.5 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Over | 53c | 687.5$365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$364.91 | 1,384 | 47.1%652 W · 732 L | +25.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab41…c453backed Over | 49c | 624.6$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.19 | 1,431 | 58.3%834 W · 597 L | +81.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 56c | 376$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.44 | 2,112 | 42.9%907 W · 1,205 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a2…0020backed Under | 32c | 312.5$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.5 | 29 | 24.1%7 W · 22 L | -4.0wins | -0.14per pick | 38cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x913b…0852backed Under | 53c | 305.93$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.41 | 303 | 48.8%148 W · 155 L | -12.7wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 48c | 230.5$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.57 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf90…8e17backed Over | 38c | 178.15$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.08 | 339 | 41.3%140 W · 199 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Over | 58c | 178$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.41 | 2,314 | 46.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Under | 39c | 128.21$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.21 | 108 | 48.1%52 W · 56 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Over | 66c | 108.11$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.06 | 1,107 | 52%576 W · 531 L | +63.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Under | 35c | 108$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.2 | 334 | 50.9%170 W · 164 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1118…6f82backed Over | 69c | 100$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…579cbacked Under | 57c | 91$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.13 | 347 | 52.4%182 W · 165 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e2a…e7cebacked Under | 61c | 81.91$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.91 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e96…f2debacked Over | 39c | 78.13$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.47 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | -5.3wins | -0.23per pick | 36cpaid | -62.9%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x33c9…5124backed Under | 63c | 65.56$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.56 | 212 | 43.4%92 W · 120 L | -6.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…d8debacked Over | 63c | 63$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.41 | 295 | 53.6%158 W · 137 L | +13.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28ad…9805backed Over | 39c | 60$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Over | 76c | 58.98$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.69 | 378 | 57.4%217 W · 161 L | +11.8wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfdeb…8cd1backed Over | 41c | 56.61$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Over | 39c | 55.96$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.05 | 538 | 49.4%266 W · 272 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4713…4d21backed Over | 45c | 49$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.17 | 283 | 40.3%114 W · 169 L | -24.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1480…6e8dbacked Under | 58c | 49$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.63 | 57 | 57.9%33 W · 24 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +11%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 61c | 43.84$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.1 | 1,028 | 53.2%547 W · 481 L | +21.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4458…d13bbacked Under | 62c | 43.55$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.55 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +3.1wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea74…cf99backed Over | 38c | 39.26$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.92 | 167 | 46.1%77 W · 90 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe722…57c5backed Under | 61c | 38.82$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.14 | 199 | 51.8%103 W · 96 L | -9.8wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Under | 59c | 35.78$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.67 | 594 | 50.8%302 W · 292 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea58…b635backed Under | 42c | 35$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.43 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | -3.7wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed Over | 66c | 34$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.46 | 272 | 50%136 W · 136 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a7c…920ebacked Under | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 62cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…61fbbacked Over | 55c | 32$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.52 | 384 | 47.4%182 W · 202 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb39b…14c9backed Under | 38c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.6 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 39c | 28.28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.03 | 1,555 | 51.4%800 W · 755 L | +12.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Over | 48c | 28.2$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.57 | 498 | 51%254 W · 244 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefcb…f64abacked Under | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | +2.9wins | +0.11per pick | 57cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd9f5…0688backed Over | 78c | 17$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.28 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Blackhawks vs. Flyers: O/U 6.5this page
- Blackhawks vs. FlyersFlyers won
- Blackhawks vs. Flyers: O/U 4.5Over won
- Blackhawks vs. Flyers: O/U 5.5Over won
- Blackhawks vs. Flyers: O/U 7.5Under won
- Spread: Flyers (-1.5)Flyers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.