TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x6ff9…a78b

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
156
Categories scored
8
Categories below 50
4

Best Category: Ncaa Basketball, grading 57 out of 100 (+0.07 per pick).

Best Category Ncaa Basketball at 57 out of 100; worst CS2 at 45.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
NHL Inactivelast resolved May 1, 2026, EDT6262.9%39 W · 23 L+5.6wins+0.09per pick54cpaid+12.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
NHL — the 62 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Spread: Oilers (-1.5)backed Ducks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$3,734Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+53.8%+$2,010.62
Utah vs. Golden Knightsbacked Golden Knights · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$464Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT+66.7%+$309.33
Kings vs. Avalanchebacked Avalanche · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$12,375Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 19, 2026, EDT+40.8%+$5,054.42
Spread: Hurricanes (-1.5)backed Senators · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$2,481Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$2,480.89
Kraken vs. Golden Knightsbacked Golden Knights · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$186Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT+35.1%+$65.35
Stars vs. Sabresbacked Stars · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$1,368Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT+75.4%+$1,031.83
Maple Leafs vs. Senatorsbacked Senators · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$1,069Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT+56.3%+$601.26
Avalanche vs. Flamesbacked Flames · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$429Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$428.57
Ducks vs. Wild: O/U 5.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.72
Hurricanes vs. Islandersbacked Hurricanes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$1,540Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT+150%+$2,310
Hurricanes vs. Flyersbacked Flyers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$3,186Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT+69.5%+$2,213.86
Predators vs. Kingsbacked Kings · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$30.66
Sabres vs. Senatorsbacked Sabres · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$1,323Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,323
AHL: Ontario Reign vs. Coachella Valley Firebirdsbacked Ontario Reign · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 2, 2026, EDT+88.7%+$16.38
Blues vs. Kingsbacked Kings · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$22Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 2, 2026, EDT+75.4%+$16.83
Blues vs. Kings: O/U 5.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$17.58
Ducks vs. Sharks: O/U 6.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 2, 2026, EDT+81.8%+$17.41
Ducks vs. Sharks: O/U 5.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 2, 2026, EDT+51.5%+$7.72
Canucks vs. Avalanche: O/U 6.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 2, 2026, EDT+96.1%+$17.47
Red Wings vs. Penguinsbacked Red Wings · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$36.06
Canadiens vs. Lightning: O/U 6.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+92.3%+$17.03
Flyers vs. Capitals: O/U 5.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$37Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+96.1%+$35.51
Flames vs. Avalanche: O/U 4.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$61Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT+26.6%+$16.22
Canucks vs. Golden Knightsbacked Golden Knights · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$49Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT+33.3%+$16.43
Spread: Sharks (-1.5)backed Blues · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$28Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT+38.9%+$11
Showing 25 of 62 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved May 2, 2026, EDT5048%24 W · 26 L-3.1wins-0.06per pick54cpaid-13.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
NBA — the 50 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Lakers vs. Rocketsbacked Lakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$2,073Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 2, 2026, EDT+150%+$3,109.76
Cavaliers vs. Raptorsbacked Cavaliers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$1,785Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,785
Pistons vs. Magic: O/U 210.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$486Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+104.1%+$505.49
Celtics vs. 76ersbacked Celtics · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$2,874Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$2,874.28
Rockets vs. Lakersbacked Lakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$3,468Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$3,467.77
Raptors vs. Cavaliersbacked Cavaliers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$1,895Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 29, 2026, EDT+28.2%+$534.49
Magic vs. Pistonsbacked Pistons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$5,658Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 29, 2026, EDT+26.6%+$1,504.03
76ers vs. Celticsbacked Celtics · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$4,627Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$4,627.16
Hawks vs. Knicksbacked Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$4,235Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2026, EDT+44.9%+$1,902.79
Spread: Knicks (-6.5)backed Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$462Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2026, EDT+108.3%+$500.91
Warriors vs. Suns: O/U 219.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$829Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$829.08
Trail Blazers vs. Sunsbacked Suns · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$96Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$96.45
Spread: Knicks (-14.5)backed Grizzlies · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 2, 2026, EDT+88.7%+$16.8
Pacers vs. Bullsbacked Bulls · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$23.33
Celtics vs. Heatbacked Celtics · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$29Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 2, 2026, EDT+56.3%+$16.37
Spread: 76ers (-14.5)backed Wizards · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$17.82
Spread: Lakers (-1.5)backed Lakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+88.7%+$16.65
Spread: Lakers (-2.5)backed Lakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+100%+$16.54
Cavaliers vs. Lakers: O/U 235.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+100%+$16.54
Knicks vs. Rockets: O/U 217.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.75
Spread: Lakers (-16.5)backed Wizards · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$18.3
Spread: Lakers (-15.5)backed Wizards · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$16.38
Spread: Spurs (-17.5)backed Bulls · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT+108.3%+$17.51
Warriors vs. Nuggets: O/U 237.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$972Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$971.8
Magic vs. Raptorsbacked Raptors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$557Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 29, 2026, EDT+88.7%+$494.11
Showing 25 of 50 picks, newest first.
MLB Inactivelast resolved May 2, 2026, EDT2846.4%13 W · 15 L-2.1wins-0.08per pick54cpaid-20.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
MLB — the 28 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
New York Mets vs. Los Angeles Angelsbacked New York Mets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$557Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 2, 2026, EDT+92.3%+$513.92
Houston Astros vs. Boston Red Soxbacked Houston Astros · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$455Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$455
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)backed Texas Rangers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$551Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 29, 2026, EDT+63.9%+$352.48
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5)backed Minnesota Twins · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$416Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$416.38
Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-1.5)backed Chicago White Sox · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$195Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 28, 2026, EDT+69.5%+$135.41
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Colorado Rockiesbacked Colorado Rockies · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$422Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$422.37
Chicago White Sox vs. Athleticsbacked Chicago White Sox · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$99Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$98.6
Chicago White Sox vs. Athleticsbacked Athletics · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$471Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$470.8
Kansas City Royals vs. New York Yankeesbacked New York Yankees · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$287Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 17, 2026, EDT+61.3%+$175.99
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5)backed Philadelphia Phillies · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$498Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$497.83
New York Mets vs. Los Angeles Dodgersbacked Los Angeles Dodgers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$104Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT+56.3%+$58.34
Colorado Rockies vs. Houston Astrosbacked Houston Astros · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$417Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT+58.7%+$244.95
Cleveland Guardians vs. St. Louis Cardinalsbacked Cleveland Guardians · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$231Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$231.11
San Francisco Giants vs. San Diego Padresbacked San Diego Padres · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$24Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+69.5%+$16.35
Detroit Tigers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 7.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$17.9
Boston Red Sox vs. Houston Astrosbacked Boston Red Sox · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$22.6
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Milwaukee Brewersbacked Milwaukee Brewers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$22Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+75.4%+$16.47
Texas Rangers vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 8.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+92.3%+$16.46
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5)backed Athletics · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$367Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT+72.4%+$266.04
San Francisco Giants vs. San Diego Padresbacked San Diego Padres · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$18.19
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)backed Washington Nationals · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$352Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT+76.7%+$269.67
Minnesota Twins vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 9.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.74
Chicago White Sox vs. Milwaukee Brewersbacked Chicago White Sox · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$1,833Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,832.68
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. New York Mets: O/U 7.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$551Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$551
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Los Angeles Dodgersbacked Arizona Diamondbacks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$684Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$684.17
Showing 25 of 28 picks, newest first.
Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Mar 29, 2026, EDT977.8%7 W · 2 L+2.3wins+0.25per pick52cpaid+45.7%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
Ncaa Basketball — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ncaa Basketball, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Tennessee Volunteers vs. Michigan Wolverinesbacked Michigan Wolverines · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 29, 2026, EDT+31.6%+$6.28
Nevada Wolf Pack vs. Auburn Tigersbacked Nevada Wolf Pack · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$216Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$215.74
St. John's Red Storm vs. Kansas Jayhawks: O/U 144.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$3,645Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 22, 2026, EDT+102.8%+$3,747.83
Northern Iowa Panthers vs. St. John's Red Storm: O/U 133.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$471Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$470.85
Spread: SMU Mustangs (-7.5)backed Miami (OH) RedHawks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$4,784Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 19, 2026, EDT+104.1%+$4,979.05
Richmond Spiders vs. Loyola Chicago Ramblersbacked Loyola Chicago Ramblers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$340Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+150%+$510.18
Louisville Cardinals vs. North Carolina Tar Heelsbacked North Carolina Tar Heels · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$188Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 23, 2026, EST+156.4%+$294.05
Milwaukee Panthers vs. Oakland Golden Grizzliesbacked Oakland Golden Grizzlies · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$263Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 22, 2026, EST+35.1%+$92.41
Portland Pilots vs. Seattle Redhawksbacked Seattle Redhawks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$1,425Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 22, 2026, EST+31.7%+$451.49
All 9 picks, newest first.
UFC Inactivelast resolved Mar 28, 2026, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.27per pick61cpaid-50.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
UFC — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

CS2 Inactivelast resolved Apr 2, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.61per pick61cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
CS2 — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Olympics Inactivelast resolved Feb 22, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.54per pick46cpaid+117.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Olympics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Olympics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Men's Final - Canada vs. USAbacked USA · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$666Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 22, 2026, EST+117.4%+$781.83
All 1 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Mar 31, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+88.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Kosovo vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT+88.7%+$16.41
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.