TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Warriors vs. Nuggets: O/U 237.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$498,119
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$511,131

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $498,119 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 294 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xc807…c12bbacked Under50c109,074$54,191 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54,882.5920545.9%94 W · 111 L-12.8wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-12%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x3b5c…126ebacked Over49c57,014$27,937 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27,936.9227747.7%132 W · 145 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick48cpaid+0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ade…f5b0backed Over50c50,000$25,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25,0001,55652.8%822 W · 734 L+40.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+10.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8e43…a3cdbacked Under50c42,533$21,178 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21,355.6743542.8%186 W · 249 L-7.6wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-9.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8f03…64d6backed Under49c37,317$18,356 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,960.961,04651.1%534 W · 512 L-0.7wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe7a2…ae70backed Under50c33,844$16,922 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,92221549.8%107 W · 108 L-0.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid+3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1d1a…0df6backed Under51c24,000$12,240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,76020744.9%93 W · 114 L-8.4wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-8.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5919…95acbacked Over50c23,594$11,898 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,898.2711543.5%50 W · 65 L-6.0wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-14.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe233…60c4backed Under50c20,000$10,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,000366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.11per pick56cpaid+28.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6858…7794backed Over50c20,000$10,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,00010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Over48c17,660$8,414 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,413.522,94951.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L+119.4wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+3.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5c74…4ef0backed Over51c16,886$8,619 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,618.9218749.2%92 W · 95 L-0.1wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc44f…d49fbacked Over50c15,742$7,853 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,853.1648352%251 W · 232 L+10.2wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9ae8…c2a8backed Under51c14,477$7,383 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,093.7124053.8%129 W · 111 L+12.5wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Over46c12,776$5,927 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,927.43,66841.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L-70.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-15.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb5b7…7ffabacked Over50c12,002$6,001 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,000.984535.6%16 W · 29 L-4.4wins-0.10per pick45cpaid-20.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Under50c11,963$5,981 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,981.474,87848%2,341 W · 2,537 L+61.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xab28…3ff0backed Over49c11,490$5,630 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,630.1450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over50c11,438$5,739 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,738.994,68249.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L+27.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3b5a…bb9bbacked Over50c10,814$5,407 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,407.1716547.3%78 W · 87 L-2.7wins-0.02per pick49cpaid+56.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Over51c10,000$5,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,1002,15351.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L+76.7wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbedb…3b26backed Under52c10,000$5,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,80016346.6%76 W · 87 L-0.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid-5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Under51c9,262$4,724 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,538.382,04548.4%990 W · 1,055 L-30.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6e70…f06fbacked Over51c9,261$4,723 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,7236746.3%31 W · 36 L-2.0wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-6.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Over50c7,699$3,850 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,850.176,21350.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L+53.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd696…8a49backed Under50c7,497$3,749 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,748.541,21248.3%586 W · 626 L-20.4wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xea22…747abacked Over1c6,735$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.767921.4%145 W · 534 L+32.4wins+0.05per pick17cpaid+33.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb097…0e61backed Over51c6,409$3,273 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,273.3812240.2%49 W · 73 L-3.5wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-11.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Over48c6,338$3,070 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,070.133,90247.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L-17.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x8d13…c3dcbacked Under50c6,333$3,197 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,136.51030%3 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.09per pick39cpaid-40.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb307…be4abacked Over50c6,000$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,00018842.6%80 W · 108 L-4.9wins-0.03per pick45cpaid+2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd57d…80d0backed Over50c6,000$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,0004042.5%17 W · 23 L+3.0wins+0.08per pick35cpaid-7.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed Over50c5,760$2,880 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,8801,38439.4%545 W · 839 L+4.8wins0.00per pick39cpaid-21.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Over50c5,445$2,702 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,701.882,50748.6%1,219 W · 1,288 L+19.8wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x001a…1fb9backed Under48c5,022$2,411 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,611.5731643.4%137 W · 179 L-18.0wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-12%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6a32…0086backed Over50c5,000$2,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,5001,33251.2%682 W · 650 L+7.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x74b6…9823backed Over51c4,300$2,179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,179.172065%13 W · 7 L+3.2wins+0.16per pick49cpaid+31.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc699…7961backed Under53c3,993$2,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,892.9220843.8%91 W · 117 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-6.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd04d…bfc2backed Under51c3,530$1,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,729.72,43549.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L+30.3wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2fcb…78cfbacked Under51c3,221$1,643 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,578.4121653.7%116 W · 100 L+6.8wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+6.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xad6e…5ae8backed Under47c3,111$1,462 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,648.831100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+112.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe7ca…a175backed Over51c3,000$1,530 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,53082442.2%348 W · 476 L-3.7wins0.00per pick43cpaid-1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6f3b…6168backed Under47c2,745$1,290 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,454.851100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+112.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8cc7…0602backed Under51c2,741$1,398 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,343.099352.7%49 W · 44 L+0.2wins0.00per pick52cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6557…0999backed Under52c2,657$1,382 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,275.3513946.8%65 W · 74 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0b78…9992backed Under51c2,517$1,291 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,226.1120051.5%103 W · 97 L+5.3wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+6.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Over32c2,476$799 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$798.868,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x988a…9147backed Over53c2,391$1,267 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,267.2310%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa1bf…f357backed Under51c2,200$1,122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,07816953.3%90 W · 79 L+5.8wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+7.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x335b…efd6backed Over53c2,195$1,163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,163.3510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xba3e…9586backed Over53c2,081$1,103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,102.9310%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x791e…9bdabacked Under52c2,075$1,079 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99617247.7%82 W · 90 L-6.1wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-1.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x098c…1c67backed Over50c2,072$1,036 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,03616436.6%60 W · 104 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfc38…1e98backed Under51c2,064$1,055 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,009.255341.5%22 W · 31 L-5.2wins-0.10per pick51cpaid-19.4%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x2eff…3d75backed Over53c2,019$1,070 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,070.0710%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x43e9…5d50backed Over53c2,006$1,063 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,063.1810%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf606…440abacked Over51c2,000$1,010 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0108754%47 W · 40 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+1.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ff9…a78bbacked Over50c1,944$972 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$971.85048%24 W · 26 L-3.1wins-0.06per pick54cpaid-13.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x747e…11acbacked Under47c1,919$902 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,017.071100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+112.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Under50c1,914$961 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$952.691,90148.7%925 W · 976 L+6.5wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over48c1,734$839 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$839.442,34648.7%1,142 W · 1,204 L-14.3wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0caf…91adbacked Over59c1,703$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0006764.2%43 W · 24 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick62cpaid+0.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7f64…15d1backed Under47c1,602$753 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$849.061100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+112.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1b39…3234backed Over55c1,600$887 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$887.157349.3%36 W · 37 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0307…500cbacked Under47c1,494$702 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$791.821100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+112.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x83ac…d3e0backed Over53c1,480$784 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$784.410%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x37c1…c53abacked Over48c1,355$652 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$652.111,91549.3%944 W · 971 L+19.7wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x76b4…ca9bbacked Over50c1,340$670 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$670.0744252.3%231 W · 211 L+12.1wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+3.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbfd5…75a3backed Under47c1,301$611 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$689.531100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+112.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa009…a6efbacked Over19c1,297$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24014742.2%62 W · 85 L+5.4wins+0.04per pick39cpaid-1.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7227…ba58backed Over53c1,294$686 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$685.82560%3 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.21per pick39cpaid+66%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdec0…8b78backed Over53c1,284$681 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$680.52837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.8wins-0.23per pick60cpaid-44%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x5911…5312backed Over53c1,252$664 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$663.56560%3 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+49.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x95ef…ff92backed Over20c1,240$248 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$248.476817.6%12 W · 56 L-2.8wins-0.04per pick22cpaid-32.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3242…0e0bbacked Over50c1,200$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60021247.2%100 W · 112 L-5.5wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-5.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Over49c1,191$584 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$583.592,40043.6%1,046 W · 1,354 L-82.9wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-9.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x079f…a9d1backed Over48c1,071$512 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$511.811342.5%48 W · 65 L+0.5wins0.00per pick42cpaid-17.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x208a…441ebacked Over48c1,042$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5005347.2%25 W · 28 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9541…3b71backed Over50c1,000$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5003644.4%16 W · 20 L-2.7wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-8.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Over51c998$509 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$508.985,05350.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L+110.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xefce…4e4abacked Under51c974.98$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$474.9864944.7%290 W · 359 L-9.5wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x84f7…ade1backed Over45c929$420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$420.231,71544.5%764 W · 951 L-0.2wins0.00per pick45cpaid+3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x12b9…6312backed Over50c884.88$442 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$442.447236.1%26 W · 46 L-5.1wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-26.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xfd48…d64fbacked Under48c829.51$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$429.515354.7%29 W · 24 L+2.9wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+9.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x32cc…68b3backed Under51c818.53$419 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$399.71,08450%542 W · 542 L+2.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xddc4…0270backed Under68c817.79$556 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$261.9127745.8%127 W · 150 L-4.5wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-13%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa8a1…2974backed Over50c800$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40017331.8%55 W · 118 L-8.0wins-0.05per pick36cpaid-19.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe962…663abacked Over50c800$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40084342.9%362 W · 481 L-39.1wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-11.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x61e8…b283backed Under51c789.96$402 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$387.9614940.9%61 W · 88 L-11.6wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-16.1%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x1733…dc80backed Under51c784.67$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$384.6719741.6%82 W · 115 L-4.9wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-10.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd7cb…4088backed Over51c784.31$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4004942.9%21 W · 28 L-2.9wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-10.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x84d7…298fbacked Under49c726.78$354 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$372.6826336.5%96 W · 167 L-9.1wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-11.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Under51c686.59$349 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$337.434,32547%2,031 W · 2,294 L-69.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa535…9e5ebacked Over49c677.55$332 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33214049.3%69 W · 71 L-0.3wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Over5c594.17$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.132,16940.8%885 W · 1,284 L-8.7wins0.00per pick41cpaid-14.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd38f…2589backed Over52c576.92$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.8wins-0.20per pick53cpaid-34.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x09c7…66e4backed Over50c570$285 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2852528%7 W · 18 L-6.7wins-0.27per pick55cpaid-54.7%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0x0204…0e31backed Over53c566.82$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30028949.1%142 W · 147 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb628…fd2bbacked Under70c514.29$360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$154.2911873.7%87 W · 31 L+7.4wins+0.06per pick67cpaid+10.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xecfc…cd05backed Over50c511$258 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$257.531,16352.8%614 W · 549 L+22.4wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 24 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.