NBA · resolved market
Warriors vs. Nuggets: 1H Moneyline
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x436493e363a52c01d51fa2a9699c78135fe35a4fc781557892b421aee7cd5aaf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Warriorsof Warriors, Nuggets
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,919
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,078
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,919 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbc8e…f961backed Warriors | 30c | 1,389$412 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$977.36 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +28%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Nuggets | 63c | 1,125$704 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$704.08 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc699…7961backed Warriors | 53c | 946.37$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$446.37 | 208 | 43.8%91 W · 117 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe21e…f216backed Nuggets | 66c | 757.11$499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.48 | 120 | 58.3%70 W · 50 L | +11.9wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…dc80backed Nuggets | 63c | 473.08$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 197 | 41.6%82 W · 115 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Warriors | 44c | 446$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.76 | 263 | 36.5%96 W · 167 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Nuggets | 57c | 425.4$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.93 | 1,170 | 50.3%588 W · 582 L | +46.8wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf2a0…1f3dbacked Warriors | 27c | 371.83$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$271.83 | 167 | 25.7%43 W · 124 L | -12.4wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Nuggets | 73c | 352.07$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.01 | 2,657 | 49.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L | +42.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1191…dee8backed Nuggets | 4c | 309.12$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.13 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…d8debacked Nuggets | 57c | 260.14$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.28 | 766 | 53.5%410 W · 356 L | +65.5wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf962…5cb1backed Nuggets | 58c | 245.9$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.93 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7418…ab9fbacked Warriors | 39c | 200$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.7 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…579cbacked Nuggets | 74c | 184.32$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.4 | 775 | 49.2%381 W · 394 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1608…eeb8backed Nuggets | 77c | 170$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.9 | 37 | 73%27 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 72cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed Warriors | 23c | 162$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.74 | 292 | 43.8%128 W · 164 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99f7…1a59backed Nuggets | 33c | 152$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.42 | 234 | 41.5%97 W · 137 L | +13.6wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb213…49e1backed Nuggets | 56c | 150.05$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.03 | 33 | 63.6%21 W · 12 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcbf0…4046backed Warriors | 28c | 143.96$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.96 | 81 | 64.2%52 W · 29 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | 0%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3f6…bab8backed Nuggets | 67c | 129$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.43 | 70 | 51.4%36 W · 34 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe96b…eb54backed Warriors | 28c | 123.82$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.15 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7c0…dadabacked Warriors | 46c | 120.69$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.69 | 125 | 41.6%52 W · 73 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15d1…f579backed Nuggets | 78c | 102.56$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab30…379fbacked Nuggets | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 302 | 24.8%75 W · 227 L | +15.5wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | +43.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked Nuggets | 61c | 100$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 931 | 45.8%426 W · 505 L | -25.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9309…c705backed Nuggets | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca78…fe5dbacked Warriors | 23c | 78.7$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.7 | 66 | 24.2%16 W · 50 L | -5.6wins | -0.09per pick | 33cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xad18…0b4fbacked Nuggets | 54c | 72.22$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 531 | 34.7%184 W · 347 L | -11.7wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2996…73debacked Nuggets | 65c | 66.14$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.8 | 137 | 44.5%61 W · 76 L | -7.4wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Warriors | 22c | 64.1$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 2,753 | 50.7%1,396 W · 1,357 L | +47.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Warriors | 58c | 61.74$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.93 | 1,758 | 48.7%856 W · 902 L | +28.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6817…936cbacked Nuggets | 59c | 51.26$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -3.0wins | -0.27per pick | 55cpaid | -51%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb0…e845backed Nuggets | 75c | 50$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 84 | 51.2%43 W · 41 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e4…d1f7backed Nuggets | 59c | 48.06$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.2 | 112 | 32.1%36 W · 76 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed Nuggets | 27c | 47.28$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.81 | 142 | 64.8%92 W · 50 L | +9.6wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked Warriors | 46c | 47.22$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 454 | 45.4%206 W · 248 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc064…6fa8backed Warriors | 37c | 43.11$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.16 | 152 | 48%73 W · 79 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd454…b47fbacked Nuggets | 50c | 42.47$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.24 | 272 | 51.1%139 W · 133 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e00…9a9bbacked Warriors | 41c | 35.04$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.8 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 50cpaid | +38.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8482…3f7abacked Warriors | 70c | 32.51$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.68 | 600 | 49.8%299 W · 301 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbdf…b8a0backed Nuggets | 64c | 32.41$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.9 | 98 | 54.1%53 W · 45 L | -4.4wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xabce…2f87backed Warriors | 42c | 31.1$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.09 | 188 | 44.7%84 W · 104 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8afa…28f0backed Warriors | 47c | 29.5$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.64 | 407 | 50.6%206 W · 201 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7379…7b1fbacked Warriors | 73c | 27.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd45…f2aabacked Nuggets | 71c | 22.7$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.12 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf84…d933backed Nuggets | 73c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.55 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 24 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Warriors vs. Nuggets: 1H Moneylinethis page
- 1H Spread: Nuggets (-6.5)Warriors won
- 1H Spread: Nuggets (-7.5)Warriors won
- Aaron Gordon: Assists O/U 0.5No won
- Aaron Gordon: Points O/U 15.5No won
- Brandin Podziemski: Points O/U 15.5Yes won
- Christian Braun: Points O/U 10.5Yes won
- Gui Santos: Points O/U 15.5No won
- Jamal Murray: Points O/U 23.5No won
- Kristaps Porzingis: Assists O/U 2.5No won
- Nikola Jokić: Assists O/U 11.5No won
- Nikola Jokić: Points O/U 26.5No won
- Nikola Jokić: Rebounds O/U 12.5Yes won
- Peyton Watson: Points O/U 12.5No won
- Spread: Nuggets (-11.5)Nuggets won
- Spread: Nuggets (-12.5)Nuggets won
- Warriors vs. NuggetsNuggets won
- Warriors vs. Nuggets: 1H O/U 114.5Under won
- Warriors vs. Nuggets: 1H O/U 115.5Under won
- Warriors vs. Nuggets: 1H O/U 116.5Under won
- Warriors vs. Nuggets: O/U 236.5Under won
- Warriors vs. Nuggets: O/U 237.5Under won
- Warriors vs. Nuggets: O/U 238.5Under won
- Warriors vs. Nuggets: O/U 239.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.