NBA · resolved market
Jamal Murray: Points O/U 23.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x740675367deedcc6f3fa893fb8ce0c026a14988c81e6807d64bbc88ff35c841b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $913
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,014
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $913 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 11 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe401…7b88backed No | 39c | 200.13$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.15 | 5,844 | 46.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7aab…15c5backed Yes | 57c | 196.36$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.81 | 56 | 46.4%26 W · 30 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc249…8a61backed No | 39c | 165.57$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101 | 796 | 50.9%405 W · 391 L | +63.2wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x677a…ca02backed Yes | 61c | 163.93$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b46…684dbacked No | 43c | 135$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.95 | 1,645 | 47.5%782 W · 863 L | +40.9wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x191e…dd9ebacked Yes | 61c | 81.39$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.65 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -2.9wins | -0.19per pick | 46cpaid | -53%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc202…8488backed Yes | 60c | 66.67$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 67 | 41.8%28 W · 39 L | -6.6wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed No | 43c | 62$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.34 | 492 | 47.2%232 W · 260 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a6a…98ddbacked Yes | 61c | 49.18$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 61 | 55.7%34 W · 27 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8afa…28f0backed No | 43c | 35$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.95 | 407 | 50.6%206 W · 201 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3590…68f1backed Yes | 54c | 27.96$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 125 | 48%60 W · 65 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 24 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Jamal Murray: Points O/U 23.5this page
- 1H Spread: Nuggets (-6.5)Warriors won
- 1H Spread: Nuggets (-7.5)Warriors won
- Aaron Gordon: Assists O/U 0.5No won
- Aaron Gordon: Points O/U 15.5No won
- Brandin Podziemski: Points O/U 15.5Yes won
- Christian Braun: Points O/U 10.5Yes won
- Gui Santos: Points O/U 15.5No won
- Kristaps Porzingis: Assists O/U 2.5No won
- Nikola Jokić: Assists O/U 11.5No won
- Nikola Jokić: Points O/U 26.5No won
- Nikola Jokić: Rebounds O/U 12.5Yes won
- Peyton Watson: Points O/U 12.5No won
- Spread: Nuggets (-11.5)Nuggets won
- Spread: Nuggets (-12.5)Nuggets won
- Warriors vs. NuggetsNuggets won
- Warriors vs. Nuggets: 1H MoneylineWarriors won
- Warriors vs. Nuggets: 1H O/U 114.5Under won
- Warriors vs. Nuggets: 1H O/U 115.5Under won
- Warriors vs. Nuggets: 1H O/U 116.5Under won
- Warriors vs. Nuggets: O/U 236.5Under won
- Warriors vs. Nuggets: O/U 237.5Under won
- Warriors vs. Nuggets: O/U 238.5Under won
- Warriors vs. Nuggets: O/U 239.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.