TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Warriors vs. Nuggets

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Nuggetsof Warriors, Nuggets
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$4,321,796
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$4,715,103

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,321,796 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 1,039 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x8e43…a3cdbacked Warriors17c304,581$50,740 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50,739.743542.8%186 W · 249 L-7.6wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-9.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcb6e…48e6backed Warriors17c230,000$39,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39,1002661.5%16 W · 10 L+3.7wins+0.14per pick47cpaid+16.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2a2c…9bc1backed Warriors17c155,402$26,247 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26,247.4966248.5%321 W · 341 L-0.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid-8.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc44f…d49fbacked Nuggets64c83,502$53,441 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30,060.6748352%251 W · 232 L+10.2wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb3cf…0ebdbacked Warriors2c70,309$1,394 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,393.761,27138.3%487 W · 784 L-13.4wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xea22…747abacked Warriors1c64,000$550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55067921.4%145 W · 534 L+32.4wins+0.05per pick17cpaid+33.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1624…bf63backed Warriors19c61,195$11,327 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,327.0883039.4%327 W · 503 L+6.3wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-20.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7b8c…abbabacked Warriors39c61,092$23,809 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23,809.481546.7%7 W · 8 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-12.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe790…eadcbacked Nuggets76c50,518$38,175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,343.5620744%91 W · 116 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-25.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Warriors16c45,723$7,103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,103.213,66841.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L-70.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-15.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x37c1…c53abacked Warriors28c42,240$12,007 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,006.871,91549.3%944 W · 971 L+19.7wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x18bb…e5cdbacked Warriors16c41,426$6,628 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,628.149018.9%17 W · 73 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick20cpaid-21.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8716…bd57backed Warriors15c40,365$6,199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,199.3841832.8%137 W · 281 L-10.5wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-18.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8ccc…f2dabacked Nuggets79c37,775$29,733 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,042.185064%32 W · 18 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick61cpaid+0.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x67bb…b6efbacked Nuggets66c34,007$22,473 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,533.5634456.7%195 W · 149 L+9.2wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+3.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Warriors16c32,203$5,065 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,065.11,34129.9%401 W · 940 L-53.8wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-35.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x27cb…169ebacked Warriors14c29,998$4,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,199.7627424.5%67 W · 207 L-10.0wins-0.04per pick28cpaid-13.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xcf6c…7e66backed Nuggets73c23,722$17,384 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,337.3559646.1%275 W · 321 L-16.2wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc6ae…afe9backed Warriors17c23,164$3,907 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,90710225.5%26 W · 76 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-32.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe29e…fa35backed Warriors15c22,325$3,451 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,451.434136.1%123 W · 218 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-23.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4f38…477cbacked Warriors5c20,299$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00030%0 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa38a…821dbacked Warriors9c20,168$1,798 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,797.7793148.4%451 W · 480 L+34.1wins+0.04per pick45cpaid-2.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Warriors27c20,029$5,440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,440.172,04548.4%990 W · 1,055 L-30.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4c03…0cc1backed Warriors1c20,000$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001,60211.8%189 W · 1,413 L-4.8wins0.00per pick12cpaid-6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x594e…38e9backed Warriors0c20,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20450%2 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.12per pick38cpaid0%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbde3…4a49backed Nuggets64c19,999$12,799 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,199.627251.1%139 W · 133 L+10.4wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+7.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2b15…9b08backed Warriors32c19,998$6,399 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,399.3210239.2%40 W · 62 L-3.8wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-16.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1e29…9e66backed Nuggets64c19,650$12,576 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,07450241.2%207 W · 295 L-3.8wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-7.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Warriors12c19,526$2,433 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,433.221,22637.4%458 W · 768 L+7.6wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-21.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7048…282dbacked Nuggets60c18,858$11,256 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,601.227945.6%36 W · 43 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-6.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc86a…bcabbacked Warriors15c16,917$2,538 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,537.541764.7%11 W · 6 L+2.5wins+0.15per pick50cpaid+24.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa115…6c5abacked Nuggets59c16,836$9,977 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,859.052250%11 W · 11 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-12.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Warriors24c16,299$3,990 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,990.418,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2734…6d9ebacked Warriors15c16,000$2,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,4006144.3%27 W · 34 L-2.2wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-7.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa4f5…1079backed Nuggets72c15,364$11,050 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,314.35048%24 W · 26 L+2.0wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x09ad…1e6dbacked Warriors0c15,192$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21425%1 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick18cpaid-58.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xacb2…b989backed Warriors36c15,000$5,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,40049244.3%218 W · 274 L+11.8wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x067f…e041backed Warriors15c15,000$2,250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,2501,26944.5%565 W · 704 L+32.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe1a2…14b8backed Nuggets63c15,000$9,375 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,62510949.5%54 W · 55 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe8e1…8276backed Warriors17c13,974$2,436 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,436.398643%37 W · 49 L0.0wins0.00per pick43cpaid-2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xecbe…42ffbacked Nuggets64c13,168$8,426 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,742.2219033.7%64 W · 126 L+8.3wins+0.04per pick29cpaid+32.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcacf…35ffbacked Warriors1c12,706$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160.417211%7 W · 714 L-2.6wins0.00per pick1cpaid-32.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Nuggets79c12,659$9,953 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,706.393,59150.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L+21.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xafe4…f3f7backed Warriors17c12,579$2,111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,11115850.6%80 W · 78 L+10.3wins+0.07per pick44cpaid+21.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xdb6f…e0ddbacked Nuggets68c12,566$8,511 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,055.546744.8%30 W · 37 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x646c…4392backed Warriors15c12,548$1,941 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,941520%1 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick25cpaid-35.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x661d…4dc6backed Warriors30c12,179$3,695 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,695.1889444.4%397 W · 497 L+8.6wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-9.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9cb9…32f2backed Nuggets75c11,000$8,270 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,729.9938434.9%134 W · 250 L+7.0wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+12.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1df2…89a0backed Warriors13c10,397$1,390 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,389.5836023.1%83 W · 277 L-15.6wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-49.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb2e6…7ce6backed Warriors15c10,300$1,545 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,544.991855.6%10 W · 8 L+2.3wins+0.13per pick43cpaid+23.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4f3d…2023backed Nuggets79c10,176$8,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,175.749651%49 W · 47 L-7.2wins-0.07per pick59cpaid-16.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe9c8…04febacked Warriors15c10,000$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,500933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.3wins-0.14per pick48cpaid-34.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd57d…80d0backed Warriors15c10,000$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,5004042.5%17 W · 23 L+3.0wins+0.08per pick35cpaid-7.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x21c2…6749backed Warriors24c9,985$2,353 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,353.1861939.6%245 W · 374 L-17.8wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-18.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Warriors8c9,489$713 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$713.241,63341.2%672 W · 961 L+26.3wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe2e1…c20abacked Warriors23c8,692$2,037 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,037.2630840.9%126 W · 182 L-5.0wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-16.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3c59…3887backed Warriors18c8,364$1,524 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,524.56126.2%16 W · 45 L-3.2wins-0.05per pick31cpaid-38.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x92b5…fec6backed Warriors37c8,108$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,00010747.7%51 W · 56 L+0.5wins0.00per pick47cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Warriors28c7,977$2,213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,213.314,87848%2,341 W · 2,537 L+61.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf679…16acbacked Warriors34c7,669$2,588 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,587.5810743%46 W · 61 L-3.2wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-18%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Warriors31c7,425$2,286 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,286.085,05350.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L+110.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf819…d410backed Warriors21c7,408$1,546 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,546.0426444.7%118 W · 146 L-15.8wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-15.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9f05…8937backed Warriors14c7,000$979 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$979.0747028.1%132 W · 338 L+27.2wins+0.06per pick22cpaid+13.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xb6ae…4df8backed Warriors35c6,826$2,385 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,384.81,04447.5%496 W · 548 L-12.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7c8a…8723backed Warriors25c6,614$1,685 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,684.565633.9%19 W · 37 L-4.8wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-40.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xbc8e…f961backed Warriors28c6,600$1,826 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,8261747.1%8 W · 9 L+1.5wins+0.09per pick38cpaid+28%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x046c…8ca3backed Warriors14c6,400$896 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8969330.1%28 W · 65 L-3.1wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-22.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2eed…85a9backed Warriors28c6,300$1,787 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,78731455.1%173 W · 141 L+10.3wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+6.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x46d9…2becbacked Nuggets64c6,250$4,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,2503053.3%16 W · 14 L+1.6wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+4.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x43f2…09a5backed Nuggets78c6,234$4,862 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,371.4412756.7%72 W · 55 L+8.9wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+8.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xbce9…03e9backed Warriors0c6,105$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.28820%0 W · 882 L-6.7wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7096…7f78backed Warriors9c5,890$531 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$530.9265349.9%326 W · 327 L+20.2wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+0.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x90eb…db79backed Nuggets69c5,774$3,965 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,809.236060%36 W · 24 L+9.2wins+0.15per pick45cpaid+36.2%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x0438…9d98backed Warriors26c5,729$1,497 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,497.1417051.8%88 W · 82 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe9cb…d096backed Nuggets75c5,724$4,269 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,454.61,00334.7%348 W · 655 L-44.7wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-35.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x479e…91c3backed Nuggets70c5,701$4,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,700.8114766%97 W · 50 L+5.2wins+0.04per pick62cpaid+4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Warriors24c5,536$1,322 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,321.652,63036.7%966 W · 1,664 L-119.1wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-25.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x344b…f7fcbacked Warriors27c5,436$1,451 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,450.8846940.3%189 W · 280 L-7.0wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-17.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5c34…c469backed Warriors1c5,305$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56446.8%3 W · 41 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick6cpaid-68%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9a3f…914abacked Warriors6c5,000$320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32042640.4%172 W · 254 L+13.9wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-3.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x49fa…f904backed Nuggets62c5,000$3,088 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,911.7317436.2%63 W · 111 L-4.8wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-19.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1a3b…447bbacked Warriors15c5,000$750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7501421.4%3 W · 11 L-2.5wins-0.18per pick39cpaid-56.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x059e…54d1backed Warriors25c4,761$1,190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,190.372343.5%10 W · 13 L-1.5wins-0.07per pick50cpaid-11%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Warriors36c4,650$1,674 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,673.983,34153.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L+108.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+1.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0eb7…1f17backed Warriors8c4,627$357 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$357.4242348%203 W · 220 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-15%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x84db…aeebbacked Warriors15c4,616$692 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$692.381,37450.1%689 W · 685 L+34.9wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+7.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x079f…a9d1backed Warriors19c4,494$854 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$854.4611342.5%48 W · 65 L+0.5wins0.00per pick42cpaid-17.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb580…9b95backed Warriors19c4,383$839 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$838.9618440.8%75 W · 109 L+2.7wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x67d5…e577backed Warriors17c4,360$741 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$741.2812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick14cpaid-47.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2f5b…e747backed Warriors14c4,200$609 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60965939.5%260 W · 399 L-13.1wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x80ba…2e78backed Warriors16c4,110$658 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$657.620537.1%76 W · 129 L+6.3wins+0.03per pick34cpaid+11.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6c43…fb9bbacked Warriors40c4,100$1,656 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,65610450%52 W · 52 L+3.0wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+5.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0306…dcf6backed Nuggets74c4,063$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,062.59839.8%39 W · 59 L-12.3wins-0.13per pick52cpaid-28.2%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x82ff…f0c4backed Nuggets60c4,027$2,410 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,616.297147.9%34 W · 37 L+2.0wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+6.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe5c1…7487backed Nuggets68c4,016$2,743 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,272.8810334%35 W · 68 L-5.4wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-15.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2ada…2f28backed Warriors1c4,000$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.3364517.1%110 W · 535 L-11.9wins-0.02per pick19cpaid-44.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x25d8…a71fbacked Warriors14c4,000$570 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$569.9813245.5%60 W · 72 L+3.3wins+0.03per pick43cpaid-22.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc699…7961backed Warriors15c3,976$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60020843.8%91 W · 117 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-6.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf39d…a06dbacked Warriors9c3,898$334 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$333.934856.3%27 W · 21 L+3.1wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+11.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6b21…5cc4backed Warriors15c3,800$570 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5701968.4%13 W · 6 L+4.8wins+0.25per pick43cpaid+47.8%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 24 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.