TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xf39d…a06d

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
76
Categories scored
10
Categories below 50
9

Best Category: NBA, grading 55 out of 100 (+0.04 per pick).

Best Category NBA at 55 out of 100; worst Middle East at 46.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
NBA Inactivelast resolved Mar 30, 2026, EDT4856.3%27 W · 21 L+3.1wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+11.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
NBA — the 48 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Spread: Nuggets (-12.5)backed Nuggets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$130Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 30, 2026, EDT+110.5%+$144.05
Spread: Nuggets (-11.5)backed Nuggets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$86Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 30, 2026, EDT+95.9%+$82.08
Warriors vs. Nuggetsbacked Warriors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$334Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$333.93
Spread: Trail Blazers (-16.5)backed Wizards · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$74Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$74.3
Bulls vs. Grizzliesbacked Grizzlies · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 29, 2026, EDT+160.7%+$80.34
Spread: Bulls (-3.5)backed Grizzlies · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 29, 2026, EDT+108.3%+$21.67
Spread: Hawks (-14.5)backed Kings · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 29, 2026, EDT+83.5%+$16.7
Spread: Hawks (-13.5)backed Kings · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 29, 2026, EDT+80.8%+$32.33
Spread: Hornets (-6.5)backed Hornets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$40
Pistons vs. Timberwolvesbacked Timberwolves · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$35.75
Spread: Timberwolves (-2.5)backed Pistons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2026, EDT+92.3%+$18.46
Spread: Spurs (-17.5)backed Bucks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Spread: Warriors (-12.5)backed Wizards · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2026, EDT+88.7%+$17.74
Spread: Nuggets (-19.5)backed Nuggets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Spread: Raptors (-8.5)backed Raptors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2026, EDT+96.1%+$19.22
Rockets vs. Grizzlies: O/U 227.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Spread: Cavaliers (-5.5)backed Cavaliers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2026, EDT+96.1%+$19.22
Hawks vs. Celtics: O/U 224.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2026, EDT+96.1%+$19.22
Spread: Thunder (-19.5)backed Bulls · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2026, EDT+92.3%+$18.46
Clippers vs. Pacers: O/U 237.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Spread: Clippers (-9.5)backed Pacers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$35Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2026, EDT+92.3%+$32.31
Knicks vs. Hornetsbacked Hornets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 27, 2026, EDT+85.2%+$25.56
Spread: Pistons (-3.5)backed Pelicans · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$40
Spread: Pistons (-4.5)backed Pelicans · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Spread: Pistons (-5.5)backed Pelicans · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$81Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$81
Showing 25 of 48 picks, newest first.
MLB Inactivelast resolved Mar 28, 2026, EDT742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick50cpaid-16.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
MLB — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Mar 29, 2026, EDT540%2 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-11.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Ncaa Basketball — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ncaa Basketball, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Spread: Arizona Wildcats (-6.5)backed Purdue Boilermakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$100.13
Purdue Boilermakers vs. Arizona Wildcatsbacked Purdue Boilermakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$1,129Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,128.9
Spread: Michigan Wolverines (-9.5)backed Michigan Wolverines · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2026, EDT+104.1%+$20.63
Illinois Fighting Illini vs. Houston Cougarsbacked Illinois Fighting Illini · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$76Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 27, 2026, EDT+136.3%+$104.05
Texas Longhorns vs. Purdue Boilermakers: O/U 147.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$34.69
All 5 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT50%0 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
Middle East — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NHL Inactivelast resolved Mar 28, 2026, EDT425%1 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.14per pick39cpaid-46.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
NHL — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Wild vs. Bruinsbacked Wild · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Senators vs. Lightningbacked Senators · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$40
Senators vs. Rangersbacked Rangers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$13
Blue Jackets vs. Islandersbacked Islanders · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 23, 2026, EDT+112.8%+$56.38
All 4 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Mar 16, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Movies — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Mar 1, 2026, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Commodities Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Commodities — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$111Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$111.2
All 1 picks, newest first.
Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Jun 1, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$485Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$485.49
All 1 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Mar 26, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.58per pick58cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Czechia vs. Republic of Ireland: O/U 2.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$25
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.