TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NHL · resolved market

Blue Jackets vs. Islanders

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Islandersof Blue Jackets, Islanders
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,097,111

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,097,111 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 619 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NHL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x9976…67dabacked Islanders48c478,898$228,104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$250,793.9519848.5%96 W · 102 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x37c1…c53abacked Blue Jackets53c263,802$138,836 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138,835.9351550.7%261 W · 254 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x03e8…1697backed Blue Jackets52c136,688$71,095 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71,094.667051%342 W · 328 L+9.3wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f03…64d6backed Islanders46c125,901$58,450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67,451.2410050%50 W · 50 L+3.2wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+4.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb45a…192cbacked Islanders47c100,000$47,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53,00022443.8%98 W · 126 L-5.3wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-6.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaa07…2125backed Blue Jackets53c90,851$47,782 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47,781.751,07049.9%534 W · 536 L+22.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1341…0853backed Blue Jackets52c81,564$42,437 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42,436.5641850%209 W · 209 L+7.7wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdd92…6b2abacked Blue Jackets53c40,000$21,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21,20014650.7%74 W · 72 L+8.5wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+13.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb6ae…4df8backed Blue Jackets53c37,908$20,091 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,091.536748%176 W · 191 L-12.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-6.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Islanders47c37,574$17,617 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19,956.9161950.1%310 W · 309 L-7.6wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc257…358ebacked Blue Jackets53c30,000$15,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,899.9848545.4%220 W · 265 L-7.8wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-6.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8bb6…cb97backed Islanders48c20,819$9,993 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,825.865350.9%27 W · 26 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-0.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe790…eadcbacked Islanders55c13,284$7,261 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,022.9727448.9%134 W · 140 L-6.4wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-13.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaca2…b9a1backed Blue Jackets48c12,881$6,126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,125.9712838.3%49 W · 79 L-4.3wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-8.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3b5c…126ebacked Blue Jackets52c12,272$6,381 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,381.3224349.8%121 W · 122 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x14ac…cb21backed Blue Jackets53c12,242$6,446 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,445.8421755.3%120 W · 97 L+0.3wins0.00per pick55cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x57b9…d142backed Blue Jackets54c12,041$6,502 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,502.379752.6%51 W · 46 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc660…bd28backed Islanders47c11,650$5,476 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,174.548549.7%241 W · 244 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Blue Jackets54c10,857$5,835 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,835.491,43450.8%728 W · 706 L-10.7wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xead0…f3babacked Blue Jackets52c10,000$5,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,20032946.8%154 W · 175 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb7f5…c669backed Islanders47c10,000$4,700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,30051045.5%232 W · 278 L-9.3wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4337…8882backed Blue Jackets52c9,595$4,989 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,989.2721850.9%111 W · 107 L+3.8wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbad2…5296backed Blue Jackets54c8,555$4,620 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,619.789249.9%445 W · 447 L+10.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfc03…1548backed Blue Jackets53c8,000$4,240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,240450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd1e6…1dc1backed Blue Jackets53c7,900$4,187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,1875552.7%29 W · 26 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5f2d…fc70backed Blue Jackets53c6,601$3,498 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,498.27250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-13.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Islanders47c6,599$3,101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,497.2445751.6%236 W · 221 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x809c…eca3backed Blue Jackets54c6,204$3,350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,3503046.7%14 W · 16 L-2.3wins-0.08per pick54cpaid-11%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb552…94a8backed Islanders47c6,162$2,885 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,277.4861953.8%333 W · 286 L+13.2wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+4.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbd09…a188backed Blue Jackets53c6,000$3,180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,18061748.5%299 W · 318 L+0.4wins0.00per pick48cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x617b…a499backed Blue Jackets53c6,000$3,180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,179.9922747.6%108 W · 119 L-7.0wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3e04…564dbacked Blue Jackets52c5,849$3,021 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,020.521,89152.4%991 W · 900 L+36.3wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x842a…7422backed Blue Jackets54c5,556$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,00040356.3%227 W · 176 L+5.3wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Islanders46c5,517$2,538 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,978.941,55551.4%800 W · 755 L+12.2wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1433…56a0backed Islanders47c5,263$2,474 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,789.4322550.2%113 W · 112 L+1.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xebc7…4003backed Islanders46c5,000$2,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,699.9911553%61 W · 54 L+5.2wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Islanders46c4,962$2,282 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,679.3589547%421 W · 474 L-18.0wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf152…64aabacked Blue Jackets54c4,798$2,591 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,590.9116656.6%94 W · 72 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x34d7…5866backed Islanders48c4,785$2,297 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,488.2250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcb2c…bb26backed Islanders47c4,683$2,201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,482.081435.7%5 W · 9 L-1.8wins-0.13per pick49cpaid-33.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xad15…ee7fbacked Islanders47c4,468$2,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,368.096946.4%32 W · 37 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-4.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5116…58c4backed Islanders46c4,444$2,044 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,399.7675251.7%389 W · 363 L-2.1wins0.00per pick52cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc1ae…f001backed Islanders47c4,080$1,918 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,162.414954.4%81 W · 68 L+9.5wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+13.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe0db…f44ebacked Blue Jackets53c4,000$2,120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,12039752.1%207 W · 190 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2838…e27fbacked Islanders47c3,781$1,777 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,003.851656.3%9 W · 7 L+1.7wins+0.11per pick45cpaid+19.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed Blue Jackets54c3,735$2,017 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,01785250.2%428 W · 424 L-26.2wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-6.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9870…b9d3backed Blue Jackets54c3,704$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,00031550.8%160 W · 155 L-11.6wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-7.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf6d5…36bcbacked Islanders47c3,600$1,692 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,907.991100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+112.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x42b5…b5b6backed Islanders47c3,471$1,631 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,839.451,37749.1%676 W · 701 L+39.2wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Islanders47c3,207$1,507 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,699.7179350.1%397 W · 396 L-11.5wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-3.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd6ce…7ec8backed Blue Jackets53c3,000$1,575 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,57562346.9%292 W · 331 L-3.1wins0.00per pick47cpaid-2.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xabf5…cfebbacked Blue Jackets53c3,000$1,590 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,59027048.1%130 W · 140 L-8.8wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9db5…072ebacked Islanders47c3,000$1,410 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,590475%3 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.22per pick53cpaid+39.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4488…e319backed Blue Jackets53c3,000$1,590 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,589.9927243.4%118 W · 154 L-16.8wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-11.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x4818…fde0backed Blue Jackets48c3,000$1,440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,439.953951.3%20 W · 19 L-1.9wins-0.05per pick56cpaid-5.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Islanders64c2,748$1,754 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$993.861,30152.6%684 W · 617 L+23.7wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2586…c893backed Blue Jackets53c2,700$1,431 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,43183652.8%441 W · 395 L+28.9wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5487…a014backed Blue Jackets53c2,500$1,325 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,32584953.8%457 W · 392 L+20.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Blue Jackets53c2,112$1,109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,109.4691653.9%494 W · 422 L+39.6wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+8.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2eed…85a9backed Islanders48c2,000$960 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,0407358.9%43 W · 30 L+4.1wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+14%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9c4d…168cbacked Islanders46c2,000$920 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,0801,08745.1%490 W · 597 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Blue Jackets8c1,730$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.1899638.2%380 W · 616 L-10.3wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-12.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe648…b79abacked Islanders47c1,636$769 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$867.175855.2%32 W · 26 L+3.0wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+9.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5adf…a5e7backed Islanders47c1,632$767 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$865.0163249.5%313 W · 319 L+2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Blue Jackets43c1,577$675 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$674.662,75447.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L+11.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid-8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x299f…2140backed Blue Jackets52c1,500$780 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$780.0738849.5%192 W · 196 L+0.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf0ac…4ec7backed Blue Jackets8c1,500$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12031828.3%90 W · 228 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-9.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf41a…ea2bbacked Islanders46c1,500$690 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81091945.6%419 W · 500 L-27.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-7.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6a72…33eebacked Blue Jackets52c1,374$715 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$714.541,34554.8%737 W · 608 L+21.0wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1d3a…7b63backed Blue Jackets52c1,175$611 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$610.9286649.9%432 W · 434 L+1.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Blue Jackets30c1,155$348 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$348.143,70450.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L+105.5wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Blue Jackets7c1,148$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.342,31446.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L-7.5wins0.00per pick47cpaid-5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2a2c…9bc1backed Islanders46c1,134$522 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$612.5440351.9%209 W · 194 L+6.9wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x360b…982fbacked Blue Jackets54c1,111$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6002147.6%10 W · 11 L-1.4wins-0.07per pick55cpaid-17.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd589…27c2backed Blue Jackets53c1,063$563 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$563.3842847.2%202 W · 226 L+5.8wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe622…ea5ebacked Islanders47c1,060$498 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$561.822352.9%118 W · 105 L+4.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd696…8a49backed Islanders48c1,025$492 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53351452.3%269 W · 245 L+17.1wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+7.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0eb3…f766backed Islanders47c1,000$465 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53554047.6%257 W · 283 L-15.9wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-5.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xba9c…d2c1backed Islanders51c1,000$510 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4909853.1%52 W · 46 L-3.8wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-6.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x17e5…f205backed Blue Jackets1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102420.8%2 W · 240 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick2cpaid-17.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x629c…6c01backed Blue Jackets52c1,000$520 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5207354.8%40 W · 33 L+3.0wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+7.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd6f4…0566backed Blue Jackets29c994.15$289 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$289.0195049.1%466 W · 484 L+12.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-10.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7cd6…ff34backed Blue Jackets9c968.99$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.224126.8%11 W · 30 L+2.5wins+0.06per pick21cpaid-3.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x201c…58bfbacked Islanders47c952.31$448 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$504.726640.9%27 W · 39 L-7.5wins-0.11per pick52cpaid-21%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xc070…203abacked Blue Jackets54c925.93$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50015252%79 W · 73 L+4.4wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+3.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbd04…a64abacked Blue Jackets54c925.93$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5007648.7%37 W · 39 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-3.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf1ad…6979backed Blue Jackets54c925.93$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50029448.6%143 W · 151 L-8.2wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-4.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2c1a…42d8backed Blue Jackets51c920$465 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$464.7811833.1%39 W · 79 L-9.9wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-22.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x303d…5701backed Blue Jackets54c883$477 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$476.821866.7%12 W · 6 L+3.3wins+0.18per pick48cpaid+51.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x7edb…7993backed Blue Jackets17c815.76$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.7927037.4%101 W · 169 L-11.6wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-33.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6cd2…2f38backed Blue Jackets37c809.5$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-13.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb47e…c602backed Blue Jackets54c750$405 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40538445.8%176 W · 208 L-10.1wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-7.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xefde…6505backed Islanders47c748.19$352 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$396.5466552%346 W · 319 L+8.8wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf5a7…63e7backed Blue Jackets54c740.74$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40031848.1%153 W · 165 L-9.4wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2714…960fbacked Blue Jackets54c700$378 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37832648.2%157 W · 169 L-8.8wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-6.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaab2…aa17backed Islanders47c700$329 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$371944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-12.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb4c6…75adbacked Blue Jackets29c699.97$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204.9940152.4%210 W · 191 L+21.2wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+8.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc991…abd4backed Islanders47c681.8$320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$361.3512653.2%67 W · 59 L+3.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf092…4ebabacked Islanders48c680.9$327 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$354.07683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.8wins+0.31per pick53cpaid+62.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6bd1…96a7backed Blue Jackets54c680$367 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$367.2757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+15.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.