TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Spread: Warriors (-12.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Wizardsof Warriors, Wizards
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$693,022
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$699,436

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $693,022 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 221 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4924…3782backed Warriors49c544,883$269,360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$269,360.2587451.5%450 W · 424 L+15.8wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x59a0…9a09backed Wizards51c200,000$102,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98,0003560%21 W · 14 L+2.8wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+15.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8f03…64d6backed Wizards51c158,000$80,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78,0001,04651.1%534 W · 512 L-0.7wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Wizards50c108,590$54,390 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54,200.634,68249.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L+27.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x93ab…9723backed Wizards51c79,744$40,419 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39,324.8360351.4%310 W · 293 L+16.3wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+2.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x37c1…c53abacked Wizards50c63,629$31,609 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32,020.341,91549.3%944 W · 971 L+19.7wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Warriors49c32,245$15,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,799.832,15351.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L+76.7wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Warriors50c15,684$7,842 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,841.582,34648.7%1,142 W · 1,204 L-14.3wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb6ae…4df8backed Wizards49c15,164$7,478 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,686.141,04447.5%496 W · 548 L-12.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Warriors47c13,905$6,584 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,584.448,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdbca…b7b7backed Warriors52c12,942$6,730 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,729.8425049.2%123 W · 127 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd04d…bfc2backed Warriors48c5,625$2,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,699.992,43549.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L+30.3wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Warriors50c5,378$2,673 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,673.062,94951.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L+119.4wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+3.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x55e4…c3c6backed Wizards52c4,841$2,496 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,344.464443.2%19 W · 25 L-4.0wins-0.09per pick52cpaid-19.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x47a6…69e0backed Warriors48c4,000$1,920 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,919.7838750.4%195 W · 192 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc51a…a0d9backed Wizards51c3,946$2,019 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,927.5427455.5%152 W · 122 L+15.2wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+9.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2b42…62afbacked Wizards52c3,365$1,750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,615.385850%29 W · 29 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+6.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Wizards50c3,039$1,532 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,506.891,90148.7%925 W · 976 L+6.5wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2302…d6d2backed Warriors49c2,973$1,456 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,456.241,28650.8%653 W · 633 L+11.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x842a…7422backed Wizards50c2,766$1,392 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,373.531,19448.8%583 W · 611 L-22.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe0db…f44ebacked Wizards51c2,671$1,362 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,308.7579549.7%395 W · 400 L-0.8wins0.00per pick50cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x61e8…b283backed Warriors52c2,641$1,373 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,373.314940.9%61 W · 88 L-11.6wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-16.1%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x0d13…92f3backed Warriors50c2,266$1,134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,133.7270246.4%326 W · 376 L-20.4wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-6.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc1fa…8c66backed Warriors49c2,245$1,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,100955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+5.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Warriors48c2,229$1,075 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,075.373,90247.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L-17.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x32cc…68b3backed Warriors49c2,183$1,069 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,069.251,08450%542 W · 542 L+2.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc991…abd4backed Wizards53c2,181$1,150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,030.4748751.7%252 W · 235 L-1.8wins0.00per pick52cpaid-2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x30a4…8441backed Warriors49c2,000$980 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98032051.9%166 W · 154 L+10.5wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+11%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x41b4…de82backed Wizards50c2,000$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,00058740%235 W · 352 L+24.3wins+0.04per pick36cpaid+3.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3a51…b2b6backed Wizards52c1,684$879 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$805.4789853.1%477 W · 421 L+21.4wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+2.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa5bb…495cbacked Warriors48c1,655$794 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$794.491741.2%7 W · 10 L-1.2wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-16%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8753…85adbacked Warriors49c1,633$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$800.0264651.7%334 W · 312 L-14.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x299f…2140backed Warriors47c1,442$678 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$677.851,14148%548 W · 593 L+9.0wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Warriors47c1,394$651 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$651.455,05350.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L+110.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Warriors49c1,338$655 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$655.322,40043.6%1,046 W · 1,354 L-82.9wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-9.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb61f…976abacked Wizards52c1,154$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$553.8520963.2%132 W · 77 L+5.2wins+0.02per pick61cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2cec…5326backed Warriors48c1,115$535 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$535.4368645.5%312 W · 374 L-22.9wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-7.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xba8d…009dbacked Wizards47c1,076$502 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$574.4314634.9%51 W · 95 L-5.9wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-22.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf332…3c89backed Wizards53c1,000$530 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47065649.2%323 W · 333 L+9.5wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xeb22…808abacked Wizards52c1,000$520 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48095641.7%399 W · 557 L+1.6wins0.00per pick42cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbce5…02f1backed Wizards48c999.99$480 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$519.9918651.6%96 W · 90 L+6.7wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Wizards49c988.72$486 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$502.624,78150.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L+20.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9ce0…f955backed Warriors49c942.86$462 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4623850%19 W · 19 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-3.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfcf4…66bbbacked Wizards52c796.15$414 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$382.155538.2%21 W · 34 L-5.7wins-0.10per pick48cpaid-27.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x9510…16dfbacked Wizards52c770.84$397 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$373.4830453.3%162 W · 142 L+8.6wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Warriors48c756.47$363 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$363.115,84446.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2714…960fbacked Wizards51c699.97$357 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$342.9849345.2%223 W · 270 L-14.0wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-6.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf405…9df2backed Warriors73c681.27$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50043269.2%299 W · 133 L+10.7wins+0.02per pick67cpaid+2.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Warriors49c681.25$331 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$331.193,59150.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L+21.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf1ad…6979backed Wizards52c646.26$333 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$312.8157650%288 W · 288 L+1.3wins0.00per pick50cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xabde…d41fbacked Wizards61c626.6$380 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$246.5441947.7%200 W · 219 L-4.1wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3cc0…1912backed Warriors50c600$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.937455.4%41 W · 33 L+4.9wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa2e0…d084backed Wizards53c570.73$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$270.7322447.8%107 W · 117 L-5.7wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-9.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfcd8…9908backed Wizards51c562.84$285 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$277.5322552.4%118 W · 107 L+5.5wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2373…a1f3backed Warriors49c528.55$259 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$258.7656447.9%270 W · 294 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-5.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x82de…1337backed Warriors49c528.18$259 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$258.7644551.2%228 W · 217 L+11.6wins+0.03per pick49cpaid-1.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbb6f…2653backed Warriors49c522.88$256 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$256.2216249.4%80 W · 82 L-0.3wins0.00per pick50cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Warriors47c461.39$215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$215.171,63341.2%672 W · 961 L+26.3wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Warriors48c449.57$217 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$217.182,50748.6%1,219 W · 1,288 L+19.8wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdc1c…debbbacked Wizards50c448.99$226 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$223.1520443.6%89 W · 115 L-9.2wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-14.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x94c4…2a41backed Wizards53c412.61$217 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$195.6122953.3%122 W · 107 L+5.4wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x891d…b19fbacked Wizards51c387$199 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$187.988251.2%42 W · 40 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+0.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeef3…0547backed Wizards53c378.33$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$178.3325550.2%128 W · 127 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5ba9…4fa1backed Wizards52c366.53$189 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$177.1515353.6%82 W · 71 L+6.4wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4630…1968backed Wizards52c353.75$183 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$170.9412650%63 W · 63 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x76b4…ca9bbacked Warriors49c330$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161.744252.3%231 W · 211 L+12.1wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+3.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5ad5…37b9backed Wizards20c310.15$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$248.1214438.9%56 W · 88 L+32.5wins+0.23per pick16cpaid+228.3%equal weight71+0.19 edge/pick
0xc1b5…c8f8backed Warriors49c306.12$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15039552.2%206 W · 189 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf05d…ac5ebacked Wizards51c300$153 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14725155%138 W · 113 L+9.4wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe33d…9512backed Warriors51c256.36$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.5226450%132 W · 132 L+3.4wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb870…5a8abacked Warriors49c248.76$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.8191846.2%424 W · 494 L+1.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x89dc…8f42backed Warriors49c245.44$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.279154.9%50 W · 41 L+4.3wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x52c6…564dbacked Wizards52c240.45$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.454254.8%23 W · 19 L+2.2wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+6.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xcba6…bb05backed Wizards49c232.58$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.7638853.4%207 W · 181 L+8.8wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7b8c…31c3backed Warriors49c222.53$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.7613541.5%56 W · 79 L-7.3wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-16.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x26dd…0249backed Warriors49c222.1$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.7641449.3%204 W · 210 L+5.0wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd51e…ac0cbacked Warriors49c222.06$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.7651647.5%245 W · 271 L-7.7wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-10%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Warriors48c211.27$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.412,46850.5%1,247 W · 1,221 L+38.4wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd2d1…aa33backed Warriors49c205.24$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1006541.5%27 W · 38 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4328…11d2backed Wizards33c200$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13538740.3%156 W · 231 L+0.3wins0.00per pick40cpaid-11.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1b9b…bc4abacked Wizards53c200$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9537850.3%190 W · 188 L+7.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaf0e…3197backed Warriors50c200$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10061957.5%356 W · 263 L+21.6wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+5.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x389a…cf3dbacked Wizards51c200$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$982334.8%8 W · 15 L-3.3wins-0.14per pick49cpaid-35.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x6d63…0b78backed Wizards52c196.92$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.5213253.8%71 W · 61 L+0.5wins0.00per pick53cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdae4…f1fcbacked Wizards52c192.7$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.719054.7%104 W · 86 L+7.6wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x62a1…4237backed Wizards52c192.31$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.31742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-15.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdf05…3e27backed Wizards52c192.31$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.31742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-15.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3abf…b143backed Warriors49c188.49$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.3887744.7%392 W · 485 L-1.7wins0.00per pick45cpaid-13.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2502…87e5backed Warriors49c185.14$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.843056.7%17 W · 13 L+2.3wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+8.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x16ea…9400backed Wizards50c171.31$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.831,32249.9%660 W · 662 L+13.7wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3e4a…7045backed Wizards51c169.99$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.0622748.9%111 W · 116 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5016…ada1backed Warriors49c154$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.4629352.9%155 W · 138 L+0.3wins0.00per pick53cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7583…0469backed Wizards52c153.84$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.846550.8%33 W · 32 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xedf1…5776backed Warriors66c151.52$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1003450%17 W · 17 L-3.3wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-21.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xc308…c3b9backed Wizards55c148.73$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.2131354.6%171 W · 142 L+10.2wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcfb5…f5ecbacked Warriors50c143.88$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.9422048.6%107 W · 113 L-6.5wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-5.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x300d…978fbacked Wizards52c143.08$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.6710752.3%56 W · 51 L+2.7wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Warriors49c135.63$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.233,12044.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L-7.6wins0.00per pick45cpaid-3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7c56…0615backed Warriors47c130.57$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.218242.9%78 W · 104 L-10.6wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-13.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4f9b…cdeebacked Warriors30c125.89$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.978639.2%308 W · 478 L+27.5wins+0.03per pick36cpaid-4.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.