NBA · resolved market
Wizards vs. Warriors: O/U 231.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x44e67183db43e36225f4cd4bb9b0c40951ef89ddee035136cf8f991b3f7c7de6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,197
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,821
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,197 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6557…0999backed Under | 53c | 1,291$684 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$684.23 | 139 | 46.8%65 W · 74 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5919…95acbacked Over | 47c | 1,120$526 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$593.6 | 115 | 43.5%50 W · 65 L | -6.0wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…4856backed Under | 54c | 1,111$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600.1 | 241 | 51%123 W · 118 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9647…4d48backed Under | 52c | 866.63$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Over | 48c | 841.63$404 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$437.65 | 2,400 | 43.6%1,046 W · 1,354 L | -82.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8230…5121backed Under | 14c | 678.65$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.69 | 208 | 37.5%78 W · 130 L | +38.2wins | +0.18per pick | 19cpaid | +115.2%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xd0c7…4459backed Over | 59c | 494.97$292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.94 | 117 | 53.8%63 W · 54 L | -8.1wins | -0.07per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x49ec…ac1cbacked Under | 16c | 441$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.49 | 240 | 44.6%107 W · 133 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Over | 46c | 383.57$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.09 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 13c | 292.25$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.15 | 3,668 | 41.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L | -70.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Over | 46c | 251.92$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.31 | 2,507 | 48.6%1,219 W · 1,288 L | +19.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0df1…6b99backed Over | 49c | 226$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.26 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb47b…c6b1backed Over | 52c | 192.41$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.41 | 82 | 56.1%46 W · 36 L | +5.2wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2cec…5326backed Under | 52c | 160$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.96 | 686 | 45.5%312 W · 374 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x299f…2140backed Under | 52c | 150.15$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.08 | 1,141 | 48%548 W · 593 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Over | 48c | 147$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.44 | 1,715 | 44.5%764 W · 951 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Over | 47c | 117.91$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.49 | 1,157 | 47.9%554 W · 603 L | -19.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Under | 21c | 94.29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 620 | 47.3%293 W · 327 L | -7.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Under | 51c | 94.14$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.01 | 2,208 | 46.6%1,030 W · 1,178 L | +42.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Under | 49c | 90.76$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.25 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c56…0615backed Under | 58c | 89.35$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.25 | 182 | 42.9%78 W · 104 L | -10.6wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea58…b635backed Under | 25c | 56.6$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 149 | 31.5%47 W · 102 L | -18.4wins | -0.12per pick | 44cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 76c | 45.03$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.67 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4458…d13bbacked Over | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.67 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +3.2wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x13b0…2f69backed Over | 47c | 31.06$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.46 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | -3.4wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Over | 43c | 30.25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.24 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 50c | 28.1$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.05 | 1,758 | 48.7%856 W · 902 L | +28.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 55c | 21.82$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 3,341 | 53.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L | +108.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1fc…7cc1backed Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.09 | 144 | 71.5%103 W · 41 L | +22.1wins | +0.15per pick | 56cpaid | +25%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 54c | 19$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 1,634 | 48.1%786 W · 848 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Wizards vs. Warriors: O/U 231.5this page
- 1H Spread: Warriors (-8.5)Warriors won
- Alexandre Sarr: Points O/U 13.5No won
- Alexandre Sarr: Rebounds O/U 5.5Yes won
- Bilal Coulibaly: Points O/U 12.5Yes won
- Bilal Coulibaly: Rebounds O/U 4.5Yes won
- Brandin Podziemski: Points O/U 16.5Yes won
- De'Anthony Melton: Points O/U 17.5No won
- Gui Santos: Points O/U 15.5Yes won
- Spread: Warriors (-12.5)Wizards won
- Spread: Warriors (-13.5)Wizards won
- Spread: Warriors (-14.5)Wizards won
- Tre Johnson: Points O/U 12.5No won
- Tre Johnson: Rebounds O/U 2.5No won
- Wizards vs. WarriorsWarriors won
- Wizards vs. Warriors: 1H MoneylineWarriors won
- Wizards vs. Warriors: 1H O/U 119.5Over won
- Wizards vs. Warriors: 1H O/U 120.5Over won
- Wizards vs. Warriors: O/U 230.5Over won
- Wizards vs. Warriors: O/U 232.5Over won
- Wizards vs. Warriors: O/U 233.5Over won
- Wizards vs. Warriors: O/U 234.5Over won
- Wizards vs. Warriors: O/U 235.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.