NBA · resolved market
Wizards vs. Warriors: O/U 233.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x49459efe9907b0faf7718f379de8b3797cb2f0f395d521f6dc4f31fe7c9b9959
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,847
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,785
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,847 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8e43…a3cdbacked Under | 52c | 14,279$7,427 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,427.01 | 435 | 42.8%186 W · 249 L | -7.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Over | 48c | 8,482$4,071 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,410.63 | 1,910 | 54.3%1,038 W · 872 L | +25.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 47c | 6,580$3,095 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,485.39 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Under | 55c | 1,223$671 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$670.68 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c1d…1f8fbacked Under | 54c | 1,207$649 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$649.03 | 492 | 49.8%245 W · 247 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce26…8e06backed Under | 56c | 1,130$631 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$630.94 | 910 | 50.9%463 W · 447 L | +11.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd589…27c2backed Under | 52c | 1,041$541 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$541.32 | 176 | 37.5%66 W · 110 L | -16.3wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbf90…8e17backed Over | 46c | 863.3$394 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$469.51 | 474 | 36.7%174 W · 300 L | -16.8wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6ae…4df8backed Over | 50c | 792$396 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$396 | 1,044 | 47.5%496 W · 548 L | -12.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1480…6e8dbacked Under | 54c | 641.88$346 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$346.16 | 584 | 50.2%293 W · 291 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Over | 50c | 496.07$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.04 | 1,915 | 49.3%944 W · 971 L | +19.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51bb…a919backed Over | 45c | 418.66$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.66 | 73 | 50.7%37 W · 36 L | +4.7wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 48c | 400$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208 | 1,901 | 48.7%925 W · 976 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e70…14babacked Over | 47c | 384.35$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.49 | 166 | 42.2%70 W · 96 L | -11.2wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8642…47c8backed Under | 50c | 300$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 53 | 47.2%25 W · 28 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Over | 48c | 297.22$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.9 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 44c | 254.5$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.52 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8230…5121backed Under | 11c | 228.16$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.4 | 208 | 37.5%78 W · 130 L | +38.2wins | +0.18per pick | 19cpaid | +115.2%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x2f2b…0f9abacked Over | 42c | 197.62$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.62 | 714 | 49.3%352 W · 362 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc08…6b85backed Under | 50c | 196.07$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.04 | 90 | 45.6%41 W · 49 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa5dc…ec43backed Under | 59c | 169.86$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 690 | 49.4%341 W · 349 L | -30.0wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea78…a74ebacked Over | 42c | 167$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.86 | 565 | 47.8%270 W · 295 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44ca…907cbacked Over | 42c | 167$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.86 | 456 | 46.7%213 W · 243 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c8…ae9abacked Under | 7c | 159.06$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.13 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x299f…2140backed Under | 56c | 150.15$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.08 | 1,141 | 48%548 W · 593 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Over | 48c | 146$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.92 | 2,753 | 50.7%1,396 W · 1,357 L | +47.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8632…4696backed Over | 49c | 113.94$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.11 | 553 | 47.9%265 W · 288 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Over | 47c | 100$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 2,657 | 49.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L | +42.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c13…99b7backed Over | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 477 | 38.2%182 W · 295 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b6c…9a83backed Over | 43c | 96.49$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 46 | 41.3%19 W · 27 L | -3.8wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2cec…5326backed Over | 48c | 95.6$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.19 | 686 | 45.5%312 W · 374 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 47c | 93$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.5 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Over | 47c | 75.58$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.41 | 2,507 | 48.6%1,219 W · 1,288 L | +19.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c5…4291backed Under | 53c | 74.68$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.58 | 969 | 56.3%546 W · 423 L | +26.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x66df…7ea5backed Over | 42c | 71.43$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.43 | 95 | 55.8%53 W · 42 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15d5…ef7bbacked Over | 43c | 64$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.48 | 1,198 | 38.8%465 W · 733 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2fcb…78cfbacked Over | 47c | 63.96$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.9 | 216 | 53.7%116 W · 100 L | +6.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x529c…053ebacked Over | 42c | 60$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.8 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd454…b47fbacked Over | 48c | 58.2$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.26 | 272 | 51.1%139 W · 133 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb0b…62cdbacked Under | 52c | 57.69$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 86 | 57%49 W · 37 L | +5.7wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cbb…7fdabacked Over | 47c | 52.06$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.75 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.17per pick | 47cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0056…a7f7backed Over | 49c | 51.8$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.42 | 609 | 45.8%279 W · 330 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Under | 53c | 50.36$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.69 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3123…b44dbacked Over | 43c | 40$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.8 | 144 | 43.1%62 W · 82 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6c4…df5fbacked Over | 48c | 35.42$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.42 | 481 | 52%250 W · 231 L | +13.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Over | 43c | 33$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.81 | 447 | 47%210 W · 237 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e4a…eee7backed Over | 49c | 32$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.32 | 327 | 52.9%173 W · 154 L | +11.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +11%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c34…7a99backed Under | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1fc…7cc1backed Under | 45c | 29.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.49 | 144 | 71.5%103 W · 41 L | +22.1wins | +0.15per pick | 56cpaid | +25%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xcd2d…d7f8backed Over | 49c | 28.41$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.49 | 193 | 57.5%111 W · 82 L | +11.6wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8fa7…d4febacked Under | 55c | 27.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 108 | 50.9%55 W · 53 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d8e…3d55backed Over | 43c | 23.35$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.31 | 125 | 41.6%52 W · 73 L | -9.3wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xef40…b116backed Under | 51c | 21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 64 | 37.5%24 W · 40 L | -6.9wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Wizards vs. Warriors: O/U 233.5this page
- 1H Spread: Warriors (-8.5)Warriors won
- Alexandre Sarr: Points O/U 13.5No won
- Alexandre Sarr: Rebounds O/U 5.5Yes won
- Bilal Coulibaly: Points O/U 12.5Yes won
- Bilal Coulibaly: Rebounds O/U 4.5Yes won
- Brandin Podziemski: Points O/U 16.5Yes won
- De'Anthony Melton: Points O/U 17.5No won
- Gui Santos: Points O/U 15.5Yes won
- Spread: Warriors (-12.5)Wizards won
- Spread: Warriors (-13.5)Wizards won
- Spread: Warriors (-14.5)Wizards won
- Tre Johnson: Points O/U 12.5No won
- Tre Johnson: Rebounds O/U 2.5No won
- Wizards vs. WarriorsWarriors won
- Wizards vs. Warriors: 1H MoneylineWarriors won
- Wizards vs. Warriors: 1H O/U 119.5Over won
- Wizards vs. Warriors: 1H O/U 120.5Over won
- Wizards vs. Warriors: O/U 230.5Over won
- Wizards vs. Warriors: O/U 231.5Over won
- Wizards vs. Warriors: O/U 232.5Over won
- Wizards vs. Warriors: O/U 234.5Over won
- Wizards vs. Warriors: O/U 235.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.