NBA · resolved market
Wizards vs. Warriors: O/U 235.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0afe43b3888af0b6c591f7799e7ba91a834eda025ed86611e020e4cb738291c3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,647
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,986
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,647 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8e43…a3cdbacked Under | 57c | 2,437$1,382 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,381.68 | 435 | 42.8%186 W · 249 L | -7.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d08…2142backed Over | 54c | 2,027$1,097 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$929.95 | 658 | 72.8%479 W · 179 L | +46.1wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Over | 43c | 911$392 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$519.27 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea22…747abacked Under | 2c | 865.39$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.65 | 679 | 21.4%145 W · 534 L | +32.4wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 42c | 782.44$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$452.87 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Under | 58c | 515$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.7 | 1,150 | 49.5%569 W · 581 L | -12.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7793…33a6backed Over | 42c | 514.87$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$298.66 | 293 | 44.4%130 W · 163 L | -7.5wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf90…8e17backed Over | 42c | 476.92$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$277.92 | 474 | 36.7%174 W · 300 L | -16.8wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Under | 50c | 450.16$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.08 | 146 | 34.9%51 W · 95 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 44c | 432.7$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.51 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x398c…33fabacked Under | 59c | 397$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.23 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Over | 43c | 304.66$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.17 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b2c…dac5backed Under | 58c | 270$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.6 | 423 | 48.5%205 W · 218 L | -9.8wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe403…3d50backed Over | 43c | 265.92$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.57 | 547 | 47.5%260 W · 287 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 53c | 236.69$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.32 | 2,949 | 51.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L | +119.4wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b43…fae9backed Under | 41c | 230$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.4 | 311 | 51.1%159 W · 152 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Under | 7c | 210$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.73 | 656 | 30.2%198 W · 458 L | -86.7wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x15d5…ef7bbacked Over | 42c | 200$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116 | 1,198 | 38.8%465 W · 733 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d87…4e0dbacked Under | 51c | 188$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.88 | 342 | 47.7%163 W · 179 L | -8.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Over | 43c | 163$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.91 | 2,753 | 50.7%1,396 W · 1,357 L | +47.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Over | 43c | 148.84$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.84 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73c0…0afebacked Over | 71c | 120$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.8 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0547…fb35backed Under | 57c | 100$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 633 | 53.1%336 W · 297 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7275…8b45backed Under | 60c | 100$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | -4.5wins | -0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe414…c341backed Over | 42c | 82.77$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.01 | 813 | 49.4%402 W · 411 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x299f…2140backed Under | 60c | 75.03$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.02 | 1,141 | 48%548 W · 593 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6bd…09c9backed Over | 40c | 75.03$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.02 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e5e…13bebacked Over | 75c | 72$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.13per pick | 48cpaid | +39.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 54c | 62$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.48 | 5,844 | 46.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77d1…eb7fbacked Under | 35c | 55.27$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1787…c311backed Under | 64c | 54.77$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 1,444 | 58.1%839 W · 605 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Under | 60c | 48.94$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.36 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9856…7014backed Over | 42c | 47.6$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.61 | 59 | 49.2%29 W · 30 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c37…e646backed Over | 42c | 46.95$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.23 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -3.8wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 50c | 45$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 3,341 | 53.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L | +108.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Under | 54c | 42.67$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 60c | 33.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.2 | 2,346 | 48.7%1,142 W · 1,204 L | -14.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Under | 41c | 30.55$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.54 | 620 | 47.3%293 W · 327 L | -7.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca2d…39edbacked Over | 41c | 25.42$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 236 | 51.3%121 W · 115 L | +11.3wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fa7…d4febacked Under | 59c | 25.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 108 | 50.9%55 W · 53 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeed1…0d39backed Under | 60c | 24.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.93 | 76 | 50%38 W · 38 L | -5.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Under | 60c | 24.04$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.42 | 1,562 | 47.4%741 W · 821 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbdf…b8a0backed Under | 64c | 23.44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 98 | 54.1%53 W · 45 L | -4.4wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0056…a7f7backed Under | 58c | 22.5$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.12 | 609 | 45.8%279 W · 330 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c56…0615backed Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 182 | 42.9%78 W · 104 L | -10.6wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa33e…c742backed Over | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.22per pick | 65cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7fa8…2e0dbacked Under | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 137 | 48.9%67 W · 70 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca70…6259backed Under | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 135 | 48.9%66 W · 69 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Wizards vs. Warriors: O/U 235.5this page
- 1H Spread: Warriors (-8.5)Warriors won
- Alexandre Sarr: Points O/U 13.5No won
- Alexandre Sarr: Rebounds O/U 5.5Yes won
- Bilal Coulibaly: Points O/U 12.5Yes won
- Bilal Coulibaly: Rebounds O/U 4.5Yes won
- Brandin Podziemski: Points O/U 16.5Yes won
- De'Anthony Melton: Points O/U 17.5No won
- Gui Santos: Points O/U 15.5Yes won
- Spread: Warriors (-12.5)Wizards won
- Spread: Warriors (-13.5)Wizards won
- Spread: Warriors (-14.5)Wizards won
- Tre Johnson: Points O/U 12.5No won
- Tre Johnson: Rebounds O/U 2.5No won
- Wizards vs. WarriorsWarriors won
- Wizards vs. Warriors: 1H MoneylineWarriors won
- Wizards vs. Warriors: 1H O/U 119.5Over won
- Wizards vs. Warriors: 1H O/U 120.5Over won
- Wizards vs. Warriors: O/U 230.5Over won
- Wizards vs. Warriors: O/U 231.5Over won
- Wizards vs. Warriors: O/U 232.5Over won
- Wizards vs. Warriors: O/U 233.5Over won
- Wizards vs. Warriors: O/U 234.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.