MLB · resolved market
New York Yankees vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf567078f9b24fda95dedd27a1a6d9dafe57cc8133f098adf9c33853cfeedbc93
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $35,765
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $36,525
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,765 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8f03…64d6backed Under | 51c | 14,602$7,418 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,184.41 | 68 | 55.9%38 W · 30 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23c8…f293backed Over | 49c | 11,820$5,792 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,791.8 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Under | 51c | 10,000$5,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,900 | 479 | 53.2%255 W · 224 L | +18.0wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed Over | 49c | 8,874$4,348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,348.1 | 321 | 52%167 W · 154 L | +7.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5919…95acbacked Over | 50c | 2,286$1,143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,143 | 114 | 54.4%62 W · 52 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacae…6798backed Over | 49c | 2,139$1,048 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,047.92 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | -3.7wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 52c | 1,568$811 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$757.68 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 51c | 1,327$672 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$655.14 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 2c | 1,163$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.64 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 53c | 855.7$454 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$401.95 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0dad…4855backed Under | 51c | 700$357 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$343 | 210 | 52.9%111 W · 99 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Over | 46c | 700$322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$322 | 272 | 54.4%148 W · 124 L | +12.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Over | 37c | 661.41$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.84 | 1,041 | 50.1%522 W · 519 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Over | 47c | 618.65$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.76 | 90 | 44.4%40 W · 50 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over | 49c | 448.57$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.72 | 323 | 48.9%158 W · 165 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 51c | 433.61$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.1 | 155 | 50.3%78 W · 77 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55a7…569ebacked Under | 73c | 384.65$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.65 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 59c | 316$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.56 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…4f9cbacked Over | 49c | 306.12$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 73 | 39.7%29 W · 44 L | -6.8wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -18%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5316…1d07backed Under | 50c | 300$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 116 | 47.4%55 W · 61 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 63c | 298.29$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.37 | 1,912 | 53%1,014 W · 898 L | +42.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Over | 36c | 214.06$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.4 | 1,269 | 47.4%602 W · 667 L | -31.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2fcb…78cfbacked Under | 54c | 200$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +43.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeba1…44dfbacked Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc23…8283backed Under | 51c | 195.39$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.39 | 431 | 53.6%231 W · 200 L | +10.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x661d…4dc6backed Over | 46c | 173.95$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.02 | 218 | 42.7%93 W · 125 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 52c | 137.02$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.29 | 465 | 47.1%219 W · 246 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Over | 48c | 136$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.55 | 105 | 39%41 W · 64 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca2d…39edbacked Under | 51c | 127.33$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.93 | 232 | 48.7%113 W · 119 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8632…4696backed Over | 49c | 114.48$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.1 | 144 | 44.4%64 W · 80 L | -7.0wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea74…cf99backed Under | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 135 | 60%81 W · 54 L | +15.6wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1c…0be3backed Over | 53c | 96.79$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 61 | 45.9%28 W · 33 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 37c | 81.61$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.2 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8410…9713backed Under | 52c | 58.12$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Over | 50c | 56.97$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.49 | 1,284 | 49.5%635 W · 649 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0056…a7f7backed Over | 49c | 51.62$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.29 | 144 | 42.4%61 W · 83 L | -9.9wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3d12…cc43backed Over | 49c | 51.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe414…c341backed Under | 52c | 49.77$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.89 | 218 | 47.7%104 W · 114 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44e4…f624backed Under | 53c | 40$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.8 | 76 | 53.9%41 W · 35 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf39d…a06dbacked Under | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x917b…e433backed Over | 49c | 32.42$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.89 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x787a…9199backed Over | 47c | 31.91$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -3.6wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0828…5cfebacked Over | 49c | 30.24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.79 | 67 | 49.3%33 W · 34 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc816…7a20backed Under | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 52 | 51.9%27 W · 25 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec56…1259backed Over | 49c | 25.95$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.72 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8de4…67a8backed Over | 49c | 25.95$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.72 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ea8…077dbacked Over | 49c | 25.95$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.72 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | -4.1wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3f5c…9e02backed Over | 49c | 25.95$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.72 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | -4.8wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc2b6…d7cebacked Over | 49c | 25.95$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.72 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -2.4wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -23%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa10…065abacked Under | 53c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xceb7…8b33backed Over | 49c | 24.77$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 52 | 48.1%25 W · 27 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4aab…38ccbacked Under | 52c | 20.19$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.69 | 653 | 59.6%389 W · 264 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- New York Yankees vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5this page
- NRFI: New York Yankees vs. San Francisco GiantsYes won
- New York Yankees vs. San Francisco GiantsNew York Yankees won
- New York Yankees vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 7.5Under won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)New York Yankees won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.