MLB · resolved market
NRFI: New York Yankees vs. San Francisco Giants
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xea4934c052fbf88988d7862eba41cbd72719f40856f82ce241d5803ab6b0621c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,774
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,669
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,774 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa974…ef79backed Yes | 55c | 9,672$5,307 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,365.4 | 220 | 47.7%105 W · 115 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked No | 45c | 2,124$956 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$955.8 | 465 | 47.1%219 W · 246 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed No | 46c | 1,835$844 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$844.3 | 840 | 49.4%415 W · 425 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08fe…aedfbacked No | 47c | 1,505$707 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$707.2 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a2…14b8backed Yes | 54c | 1,400$756 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$644 | 182 | 41.2%75 W · 107 L | -9.4wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked No | 45c | 1,174$527 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$527.35 | 672 | 50.1%337 W · 335 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacae…6798backed No | 46c | 1,080$497 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$496.8 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | -3.7wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1df2…89a0backed Yes | 54c | 1,057$566 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$491.3 | 1,113 | 49%545 W · 568 L | +22.1wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c0…4583backed Yes | 52c | 555.73$289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.75 | 64 | 48.4%31 W · 33 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a96…0d7cbacked Yes | 55c | 477.93$263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.17 | 33 | 63.6%21 W · 12 L | +4.5wins | +0.14per pick | 50cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Yes | 53c | 300$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141 | 555 | 41.4%230 W · 325 L | -26.7wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed No | 45c | 300$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed No | 47c | 253.21$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 443 | 48.5%215 W · 228 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1489…9924backed No | 47c | 222.44$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.55 | 185 | 53%98 W · 87 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf1e…63bbbacked No | 48c | 208.75$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40d2…312fbacked No | 46c | 199.98$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.99 | 228 | 51.3%117 W · 111 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96ca…5a71backed Yes | 54c | 185.29$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.29 | 252 | 47.6%120 W · 132 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0283…d526backed Yes | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.19 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e73…b728backed Yes | 54c | 184.26$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.76 | 58 | 56.9%33 W · 25 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…1d79backed Yes | 54c | 170.37$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.37 | 262 | 45.8%120 W · 142 L | -17.7wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb6e8…ed04backed No | 46c | 152.21$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.54 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.12per pick | 46cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked No | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 722 | 47.6%344 W · 378 L | -12.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…d8debacked No | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 374 | 44.4%166 W · 208 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1104…39fabacked Yes | 65c | 100$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e58…fb5abacked No | 46c | 90$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.4 | 109 | 61.5%67 W · 42 L | +8.5wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe649…4e37backed Yes | 56c | 53.84$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.84 | 569 | 46.9%267 W · 302 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x078e…7ba8backed Yes | 56c | 44.64$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.64 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | -4.6wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0642…8c68backed No | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 370 | 48.9%181 W · 189 L | -12.2wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x529c…053ebacked No | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked No | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 509 | 49.5%252 W · 257 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed No | 45c | 31.82$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.32 | 950 | 41.5%394 W · 556 L | -48.3wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4066…e3c3backed No | 46c | 31.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.73 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24ca…5829backed Yes | 54c | 20.7$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.52 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfce4…5cd0backed Yes | 54c | 20.35$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.36 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +2.8wins | +0.21per pick | 56cpaid | +35.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- NRFI: New York Yankees vs. San Francisco Giantsthis page
- New York Yankees vs. San Francisco GiantsNew York Yankees won
- New York Yankees vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 7.5Under won
- New York Yankees vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)New York Yankees won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.