TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x1a96…0d7c

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
226
Categories scored
5
Categories below 50
3

Best Category: NHL, grading 63 out of 100 (+0.11 per pick).

Best Category NHL at 63 out of 100; worst Fifa International at 46.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
NBA Inactivelast resolved Apr 14, 2026, EDT10748.6%52 W · 55 L-0.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
NBA — the 107 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Heat vs. Hornetsbacked Heat · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.48
Hornets vs. Knicks: O/U 218.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$18.2
Trail Blazers vs. Clippersbacked Trail Blazers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$71Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+212.5%+$151.36
Suns vs. Magicbacked Magic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$169Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT+85.2%+$144.2
Spread: Thunder (-13.5)backed Thunder · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$250Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$250.02
Pistons vs. Thunder: O/U 219.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$82Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$81.76
Timberwolves vs. Mavericksbacked Timberwolves · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$666Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT+42.9%+$285.36
Spread: 76ers (-1.5)backed Heat · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$94Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT+108.3%+$102.15
Bulls vs. Spursbacked Bulls · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$30.6
76ers vs. Heatbacked Heat · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$576Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT+129.2%+$744.25
Spread: Suns (-12.5)backed Grizzlies · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$56Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$55.54
Celtics vs. Hawksbacked Hawks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$35Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 30, 2026, EDT+88.7%+$30.72
Knicks vs. Thunderbacked Thunder · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$592Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 30, 2026, EDT+31.6%+$186.81
Rockets vs. Pelicansbacked Pelicans · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.93
Spread: Raptors (-2.5)backed Raptors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$54Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 29, 2026, EDT+112.8%+$60.91
Magic vs. Raptorsbacked Raptors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$61Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 29, 2026, EDT+85.2%+$52.16
Spread: Kings (-1.5)backed Nets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$143Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 29, 2026, EDT+88.7%+$126.95
Kings vs. Nets: O/U 221.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$348Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 29, 2026, EDT+79%+$275.31
Kings vs. Netsbacked Nets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$1,570Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 29, 2026, EDT+95.3%+$1,496.85
Celtics vs. Hornets: O/U 215.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$163Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$163.08
Spread: Celtics (-1.5)backed Hornets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$415Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$414.72
Celtics vs. Hornetsbacked Hornets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$231Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$231.18
Spread: Clippers (-14.5)backed Clippers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$220Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$220.41
Spread: Clippers (-13.5)backed Clippers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$166Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 29, 2026, EDT+59.9%+$99.72
Clippers vs. Bucks: O/U 223.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$113Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$113.23
Showing 25 of 107 picks, newest first.
Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Mar 29, 2026, EDT5149%25 W · 26 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Ncaa Basketball — the 51 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ncaa Basketball, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Connecticut Huskies vs. Duke Blue Devilsbacked Duke Blue Devils · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$307Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$306.75
Spread: Duke Blue Devils (-4.5)backed Connecticut Huskies · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$44Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 29, 2026, EDT+112.8%+$50.11
Connecticut Huskies vs. Duke Blue Devils: O/U 134.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$683Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$682.73
Spread: Michigan Wolverines (-7.5)backed Michigan Wolverines · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$252Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 29, 2026, EDT+92.8%+$234.02
Tennessee Volunteers vs. Michigan Wolverines: O/U 146.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$1,384Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,383.55
Purdue Boilermakers vs. Arizona Wildcats: O/U 151.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$201Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 29, 2026, EDT+127.3%+$255.42
Purdue Boilermakers vs. Arizona Wildcats: O/U 152.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$172Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 29, 2026, EDT+100%+$171.72
Purdue Boilermakers vs. Arizona Wildcatsbacked Arizona Wildcats · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$43Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 29, 2026, EDT+42.9%+$18.6
Purdue Boilermakers vs. Arizona Wildcats: O/U 153.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$616Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 29, 2026, EDT+92.5%+$569.82
Illinois Fighting Illini vs. Iowa Hawkeyesbacked Iowa Hawkeyes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$113Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$113.1
Illinois Fighting Illini vs. Iowa Hawkeyes: O/U 137.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$689Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$688.81
Spread: Illinois Fighting Illini (-6.5)backed Iowa Hawkeyes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$51Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$50.5
Tennessee Volunteers vs. Iowa State Cyclones: O/U 140.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$52Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2026, EDT+96.1%+$49.78
Spread: Iowa State Cyclones (-3.5)backed Iowa State Cyclones · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$428Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$428.13
Spread: Connecticut Huskies (-1.5)backed Michigan State Spartans · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$173Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$172.97
Michigan State Spartans vs. Connecticut Huskies: O/U 134.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$177Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2026, EDT+127.3%+$225.25
Alabama Crimson Tide vs. Michigan Wolverines: O/U 172.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$343Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$343.45
Illinois Fighting Illini vs. Houston Cougarsbacked Houston Cougars · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$173Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$173.15
Arkansas Razorbacks vs. Arizona Wildcats: O/U 165.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$1,459Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,458.95
Nebraska Cornhuskers vs. Iowa Hawkeyesbacked Nebraska Cornhuskers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$519Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$518.74
Nebraska Cornhuskers vs. Iowa Hawkeyes: O/U 133.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$169Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 27, 2026, EDT+112.8%+$190.81
Nebraska Cornhuskers vs. Iowa Hawkeyes: O/U 132.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$515Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 27, 2026, EDT+105.5%+$543.63
Nebraska Cornhuskers vs. Iowa Hawkeyes: O/U 131.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$260Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$260.13
Texas Longhorns vs. Purdue Boilermakers: O/U 147.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$16.18
Wichita State Shockers vs. Tulsa Golden Hurricanebacked Tulsa Golden Hurricane · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$347Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 25, 2026, EDT+61.3%+$212.41
Showing 25 of 51 picks, newest first.
MLB Inactivelast resolved Apr 14, 2026, EDT3363.6%21 W · 12 L+4.5wins+0.14per pick50cpaid+23.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
MLB — the 33 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Baltimore Oriolesbacked Arizona Diamondbacks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$188Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT+149.7%+$282.02
Cleveland Guardians vs. St. Louis Cardinalsbacked St. Louis Cardinals · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$105Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$104.5
Athletics vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 9.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$165Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT+79.8%+$131.41
Texas Rangers vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 9.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$79Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT+92.3%+$73.33
Los Angeles Angels vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 9.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$174Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT+104.1%+$181
Chicago White Sox vs. Milwaukee Brewersbacked Chicago White Sox · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$1,045Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,044.76
Minnesota Twins vs. Baltimore Oriolesbacked Baltimore Orioles · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$34Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 29, 2026, EDT+66.7%+$22.51
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$47Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$46.93
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. New York Mets: O/U 7.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$172Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$172.13
Colorado Rockies vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 8.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$118Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 29, 2026, EDT+81.8%+$96.18
Boston Red Sox vs. Cincinnati Redsbacked Cincinnati Reds · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$3,843Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 29, 2026, EDT+76.9%+$2,956.49
Texas Rangers vs. Philadelphia Philliesbacked Texas Rangers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$771Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 29, 2026, EDT+124.5%+$959.8
Athletics vs. Toronto Blue Jaysbacked Toronto Blue Jays · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$175Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 29, 2026, EDT+61.3%+$107.02
Kansas City Royals vs. Atlanta Bravesbacked Atlanta Braves · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$163Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$163.33
Minnesota Twins vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 9.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$46Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$46.17
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. New York Metsbacked Pittsburgh Pirates · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$348Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$348
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. New York Mets: O/U 7.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$99Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$98.88
Minnesota Twins vs. Baltimore Oriolesbacked Baltimore Orioles · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.23
Texas Rangers vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 7.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$1,166Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2026, EDT+113.5%+$1,324.13
Athletics vs. Toronto Blue Jaysbacked Toronto Blue Jays · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$88Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2026, EDT+55%+$48.24
Boston Red Sox vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 7.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$122Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2026, EDT+90.3%+$110.29
Athletics vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 8.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$127Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2026, EDT+104.1%+$132.31
Tampa Bay Rays vs. St. Louis Cardinalsbacked St. Louis Cardinals · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$1,130Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2026, EDT+96%+$1,085.13
Washington Nationals vs. Chicago Cubsbacked Washington Nationals · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$89Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$89.46
Washington Nationals vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 9.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$174Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2026, EDT+132.6%+$231.26
Showing 25 of 33 picks, newest first.
NHL Inactivelast resolved Apr 15, 2026, EDT2871.4%20 W · 8 L+6.1wins+0.22per pick50cpaid+48.5%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
NHL — the 28 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Canadiens vs. Flyersbacked Flyers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 15, 2026, EDT+179.4%+$53.94
Hurricanes vs. Islandersbacked Hurricanes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$104Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT+130.4%+$135.84
Capitals vs. Blue Jacketsbacked Capitals · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$105Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT+126.8%+$133.06
Penguins vs. Capitalsbacked Penguins · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$66Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$65.52
Capitals vs. Penguinsbacked Penguins · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$106Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$105.6
Lightning vs. Bruinsbacked Bruins · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$79.56
Maple Leafs vs. Ducksbacked Maple Leafs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$66Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT+170.3%+$112.17
Blues vs. Sharksbacked Blues · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$124Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$124.38
Penguins vs. Islandersbacked Penguins · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$1,862Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT+112.8%+$2,099.98
Blackhawks vs. Devilsbacked Devils · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 30, 2026, EDT+63.9%+$10.17
Bruins vs. Blue Jacketsbacked Bruins · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$174Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 29, 2026, EDT+150%+$261.02
Canadiens vs. Hurricanesbacked Canadiens · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$84Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 29, 2026, EDT+143.9%+$120.23
Panthers vs. Rangers: O/U 6.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$523Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 29, 2026, EDT+81.8%+$427.58
Panthers vs. Rangersbacked Rangers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$161Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 29, 2026, EDT+61.3%+$98.7
Spread: Rangers (-1.5)backed Rangers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$284Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 29, 2026, EDT+163.2%+$463.52
Avalanche vs. Jetsbacked Jets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$29.13
Avalanche vs. Jets: O/U 7.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$177Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 27, 2026, EDT+35.2%+$62.24
Kraken vs. Lightningbacked Lightning · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$175Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$174.65
Avalanche vs. Penguinsbacked Avalanche · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$174Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 25, 2026, EDT+66.7%+$116.16
Senators vs. Red Wings: O/U 6.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$172Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$172.4
Senators vs. Red Wingsbacked Senators · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$24Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 25, 2026, EDT+112.8%+$26.72
Blackhawks vs. Islandersbacked Blackhawks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$58Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 25, 2026, EDT+150%+$86.78
Spread: Islanders (-1.5)backed Blackhawks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$1,220Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 25, 2026, EDT+66.7%+$813.12
Golden Knights vs. Starsbacked Golden Knights · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$294Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 23, 2026, EDT+127.3%+$374.31
Avalanche vs. Capitals: O/U 6.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$126Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 22, 2026, EDT+81.8%+$103.06
Showing 25 of 28 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Mar 30, 2026, EDT728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.17per pick45cpaid-38%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.