NHL · resolved market
Senators vs. Red Wings: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe90e123d038004a6869405f19008612c1bcfe66f4d414d915464ba39e313fe7b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,520
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,520 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Over | 44c | 3,333$1,467 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,466.51 | 919 | 45.6%419 W · 500 L | -27.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e04…564dbacked Under | 56c | 3,053$1,710 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,343.18 | 1,891 | 52.4%991 W · 900 L | +36.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ef4…763dbacked Under | 58c | 1,874$1,096 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$777.86 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +2.2wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Over | 42c | 1,715$719 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$718.97 | 515 | 50.7%261 W · 254 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 42c | 997.65$414 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$414.03 | 1,555 | 51.4%800 W · 755 L | +12.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff9…a78bbacked Under | 58c | 827.98$480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$347.75 | 62 | 62.9%39 W · 23 L | +5.6wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1a96…0d7cbacked Over | 42c | 410.48$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.4 | 28 | 71.4%20 W · 8 L | +6.1wins | +0.22per pick | 50cpaid | +48.5%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Over | 41c | 329.63$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.15 | 1,230 | 53.7%661 W · 569 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 46c | 308.23$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.67 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…4727backed Over | 42c | 307$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.94 | 318 | 48.7%155 W · 163 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e7…b14fbacked Under | 58c | 275$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.5 | 366 | 48.6%178 W · 188 L | -14.5wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1480…6e8dbacked Under | 58c | 268.41$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.73 | 57 | 57.9%33 W · 24 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +11%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 42c | 250$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 1,190 | 50.7%603 W · 587 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Over | 53c | 219.59$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.62 | 333 | 63.7%212 W · 121 L | +44.3wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x2e2a…e7cebacked Under | 59c | 213.56$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.56 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1093…d547backed Under | 53c | 187.04$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.04 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +12%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x72a1…1950backed Under | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.57 | 106 | 57.5%61 W · 45 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Over | 42c | 141.81$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.15 | 1,092 | 50.4%550 W · 542 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x445e…9be0backed Under | 57c | 141.46$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.83 | 336 | 52.1%175 W · 161 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Over | 42c | 125$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.5 | 429 | 48.7%209 W · 220 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Over | 51c | 123$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.73 | 1,384 | 47.1%652 W · 732 L | +25.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6ae…4df8backed Over | 42c | 122.4$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.27 | 367 | 48%176 W · 191 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b8d…bb92backed Under | 58c | 100$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 243 | 50.2%122 W · 121 L | -13.5wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cb5…6be6backed Under | 56c | 100$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c06…bbeebacked Over | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe722…57c5backed Over | 43c | 48.01$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.64 | 199 | 51.8%103 W · 96 L | -9.8wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc94a…9401backed Under | 40c | 47.1$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.26 | 145 | 53.1%77 W · 68 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac1a…813ebacked Over | 41c | 38.75$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.89 | 108 | 46.3%50 W · 58 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30ce…fdcebacked Over | 30c | 38$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 150 | 57.3%86 W · 64 L | +14.8wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcd9d…2269backed Under | 39c | 36.11$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.14 | 40 | 72.5%29 W · 11 L | +6.7wins | +0.17per pick | 56cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Over | 61c | 36$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.96 | 1,024 | 48.4%496 W · 528 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed Under | 65c | 35$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.1 | 272 | 50%136 W · 136 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13c6…3520backed Under | 60c | 33.6$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.45 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Under | 58c | 32$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.44 | 868 | 52.4%455 W · 413 L | +7.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8afa…28f0backed Under | 38c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.6 | 332 | 51.5%171 W · 161 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Over | 41c | 27.52$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.28 | 451 | 51.2%231 W · 220 L | +16.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x782b…ff64backed Over | 44c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 326 | 53.1%173 W · 153 L | +18.1wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Over | 53c | 24.18$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.72 | 498 | 51%254 W · 244 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 48c | 23.32$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.04 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55ab…4f88backed Under | 62c | 23$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.74 | 249 | 46.2%115 W · 134 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -11%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc33d…0d40backed Under | 57c | 18$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.74 | 253 | 45.5%115 W · 138 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Senators vs. Red Wings: O/U 6.5this page
- Senators vs. Red WingsSenators won
- Senators vs. Red Wings: O/U 4.5Over won
- Senators vs. Red Wings: O/U 5.5Under won
- Senators vs. Red Wings: O/U 7.5Under won
- Spread: Red Wings (-1.5)Senators won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.