MLB · resolved market
Minnesota Twins vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9401c18e7c8fdbfde816fc8d8b7ac4538c78a0e59fcec78435dd2a15734516e0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $316,801
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $318,825
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $316,801 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb45a…192cbacked Over | 44c | 300,000$130,988 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169,012.34 | 411 | 49.1%202 W · 209 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e77…8c33backed Under | 57c | 102,213$58,262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58,261.54 | 283 | 50.9%144 W · 139 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Under | 56c | 66,689$37,344 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37,344.12 | 1,041 | 50.1%522 W · 519 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6ae…4df8backed Under | 56c | 58,353$32,678 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32,677.89 | 78 | 39.7%31 W · 47 L | -6.0wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5c…126ebacked Under | 56c | 53,571$30,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30,000 | 74 | 41.9%31 W · 43 L | -5.5wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xadfa…324ebacked Under | 56c | 15,000$8,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,400 | 151 | 48.3%73 W · 78 L | -5.4wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5318…1118backed Under | 59c | 2,024$1,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,200 | 67 | 52.2%35 W · 32 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Under | 56c | 1,820$1,019 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,019.2 | 1,909 | 53.5%1,021 W · 888 L | +29.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 41c | 1,225$502 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$502.22 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…8abdbacked Under | 59c | 1,212$711 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$711 | 680 | 53.2%362 W · 318 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd871…6bbabacked Over | 59c | 1,128$666 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$462.48 | 105 | 45.7%48 W · 57 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Over | 44c | 1,068$468 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$599.49 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 56c | 1,000$560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$560 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Under | 56c | 777$435 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$435.12 | 1,352 | 50.8%687 W · 665 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Under | 62c | 683.1$421 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$421.25 | 1,218 | 55.6%677 W · 541 L | +94.9wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 39c | 578.9$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$351.23 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Over | 40c | 500$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300 | 1,292 | 50.2%648 W · 644 L | +18.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b97…6084backed Over | 43c | 500$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285 | 591 | 50.3%297 W · 294 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0dad…4855backed Over | 43c | 499.99$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285 | 210 | 52.9%111 W · 99 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cd7…33d9backed Over | 43c | 465.27$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.27 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 41c | 457.73$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.51 | 465 | 47.1%219 W · 246 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 56c | 452.59$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.45 | 678 | 49.3%334 W · 344 L | +7.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5919…95acbacked Under | 57c | 443$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.51 | 114 | 54.4%62 W · 52 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Under | 56c | 442.05$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.71 | 80 | 42.5%34 W · 46 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Over | 44c | 340.91$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.91 | 1,708 | 49.9%852 W · 856 L | -17.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab30…379fbacked Under | 5c | 258.6$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 47 | 14.9%7 W · 40 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85a7…d9f3backed Over | 43c | 233.49$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.49 | 88 | 47.7%42 W · 46 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x617b…a499backed Under | 56c | 227.27$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.27 | 619 | 47.7%295 W · 324 L | -1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x450b…11d7backed Over | 44c | 227.27$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.27 | 126 | 55.6%70 W · 56 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x292e…172cbacked Over | 44c | 227.27$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.27 | 100 | 56%56 W · 44 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8ca…cccbbacked Over | 47c | 225$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf3c8…e340backed Under | 20c | 215$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.15 | 41 | 9.8%4 W · 37 L | -10.5wins | -0.26per pick | 35cpaid | -62.6%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Over | 41c | 210.47$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.57 | 1,572 | 48.3%759 W · 813 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca4…aa92backed Over | 43c | 200$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114 | 100 | 57%57 W · 43 L | +6.2wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeaff…5f75backed Under | 57c | 200$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +53.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 57c | 194.85$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.37 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52f2…5a5dbacked Under | 57c | 169.07$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.37 | 111 | 53.2%59 W · 52 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…579cbacked Under | 57c | 163$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.91 | 198 | 48.5%96 W · 102 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 50c | 124.13$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.53 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe226…95a5backed Over | 43c | 116.28$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.28 | 54 | 51.9%28 W · 26 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa04…796bbacked Under | 58c | 113$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.54 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Over | 42c | 100$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 2,261 | 45.4%1,026 W · 1,235 L | +57.4wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x00d4…4c46backed Under | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 99 | 39.4%39 W · 60 L | -5.3wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x98e9…8dbebacked Over | 43c | 100$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57 | 93 | 49.5%46 W · 47 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea74…cf99backed Over | 42c | 100$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 135 | 60%81 W · 54 L | +15.6wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0056…a7f7backed Under | 56c | 95.9$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.7 | 144 | 42.4%61 W · 83 L | -9.9wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8941…83d7backed Under | 58c | 94$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.58 | 153 | 51.6%79 W · 74 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6fba…26dcbacked Under | 58c | 86.21$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 231 | 52.8%122 W · 109 L | -8.2wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe414…c341backed Under | 55c | 80.08$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.04 | 218 | 47.7%104 W · 114 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91e0…26a0backed Under | 14c | 80$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 76 | 30.3%23 W · 53 L | -10.2wins | -0.13per pick | 44cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1a96…0d7cbacked Under | 59c | 78.25$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.17 | 33 | 63.6%21 W · 12 L | +4.5wins | +0.14per pick | 50cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe624…2928backed Over | 44c | 75$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 496 | 49.8%247 W · 249 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd454…b47fbacked Over | 45c | 62.96$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.63 | 90 | 44.4%40 W · 50 L | -6.0wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xac27…18e7backed Over | 55c | 56.27$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.34 | 59 | 67.8%40 W · 19 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1f…ea7abacked Under | 59c | 50.85$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…8d89backed Under | 56c | 48.21$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 54 | 50%27 W · 27 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4d5…a8dabacked Over | 43c | 45.45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.91 | 209 | 55.5%116 W · 93 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc6dc…a2ecbacked Over | 44c | 42$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.52 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 56c | 36.74$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Over | 45c | 29.6$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.28 | 105 | 39%41 W · 64 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf689…3e3fbacked Over | 44c | 26.45$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.81 | 96 | 42.7%41 W · 55 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d0…7379backed Over | 44c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a07…3a75backed Under | 74c | 20.4$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.1 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f0c…a98fbacked Under | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.26per pick | 46cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c5…4291backed Under | 57c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 69 | 56.5%39 W · 30 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70fc…ab12backed Under | 57c | 19.44$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1,367 | 54.3%742 W · 625 L | +16.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe748…bc49backed Under | 56c | 17.86$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 69 | 46.4%32 W · 37 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbed…6221backed Under | 61c | 16.66$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.16 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Minnesota Twins vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 9.5this page
- Minnesota Twins vs. Baltimore OriolesBaltimore Orioles won
- NRFI: Minnesota Twins vs. Baltimore OriolesYes won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5)Baltimore Orioles won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.