TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Ncaa Basketball · resolved market

Arkansas Razorbacks vs. Arizona Wildcats: O/U 165.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$404,077
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$402,143

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $404,077 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 240 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xc807…c12bbacked Over50c188,008$93,929 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94,079.333455.9%19 W · 15 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+7.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under51c91,186$46,325 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46,324.892,89650%1,448 W · 1,448 L+71.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+5.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x37c1…c53abacked Under49c57,803$28,602 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28,601.7646246.5%215 W · 247 L-6.8wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-5.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe248…f293backed Under50c44,436$22,218 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22,218.1878155.6%434 W · 347 L+38.2wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+10%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa2cc…0cbcbacked Under53c22,674$12,011 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,010.814348.8%21 W · 22 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd4da…3175backed Over48c20,311$9,749 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,561.7289850%449 W · 449 L+7.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid0%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf988…d63bbacked Over47c12,480$5,866 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,614.3912251.6%63 W · 59 L+4.9wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+10.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9e2f…ec47backed Under50c11,000$5,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,5002729.6%8 W · 19 L-5.6wins-0.21per pick50cpaid-40.8%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xfa5f…6bfebacked Over50c10,845$5,423 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,422.54540%18 W · 27 L-3.4wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-19.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xacae…6798backed Over50c10,640$5,320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,320.2110749.5%53 W · 54 L+3.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+3.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbca6…73e3backed Under52c10,000$5,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,2008946.1%41 W · 48 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+7.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xacb2…b989backed Under50c9,997$4,998 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,998.362231.8%7 W · 15 L-1.7wins-0.08per pick40cpaid-38.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9916…bcb2backed Over48c9,721$4,666 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,055.096743.3%29 W · 38 L-3.0wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-17.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb6ae…4df8backed Under49c8,066$3,970 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,969.8717643.8%77 W · 99 L-8.2wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-8.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Over49c7,029$3,453 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,576.765,94649.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L+163.0wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-0.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1d1a…0df6backed Over47c7,000$3,290 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,71010648.1%51 W · 55 L-2.4wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd696…8a49backed Over48c5,589$2,679 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,909.7884147.4%399 W · 442 L-13.3wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-3.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0b9c…7e44backed Over50c5,000$2,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,5006149.2%30 W · 31 L+2.9wins+0.05per pick44cpaid+9.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1733…1e15backed Over50c4,725$2,342 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,382.961,23147%578 W · 653 L-17.6wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-2.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x067f…e041backed Under50c4,505$2,253 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,252.5630139.2%118 W · 183 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-8.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Over49c4,201$2,042 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,158.581,15248.9%563 W · 589 L+3.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x617b…a499backed Under50c4,000$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,00024451.2%125 W · 119 L-0.7wins0.00per pick52cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe0db…f44ebacked Under49c4,000$1,960 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,96010739.3%42 W · 65 L-8.5wins-0.08per pick47cpaid-17%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Under50c3,502$1,736 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,73618744.9%84 W · 103 L-4.6wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-9.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe7a2…ae70backed Under50c3,275$1,638 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,637.5414854.1%80 W · 68 L+7.5wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+8.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc1f7…c4e5backed Over50c3,000$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,50013343.6%58 W · 75 L-7.8wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-14.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7202…e51abacked Over50c3,000$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,5001040%4 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-17.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd942…f9d3backed Under50c2,974$1,487 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,486.7950%0 W · 5 L-2.4wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x1a96…0d7cbacked Under50c2,918$1,459 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,458.955149%25 W · 26 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8214…ef72backed Under50c2,348$1,174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,174.1519446.4%90 W · 104 L-3.6wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-9.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked Under50c2,110$1,055 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,055.052334.8%8 W · 15 L-3.6wins-0.16per pick51cpaid-34.6%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed Over50c2,000$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,00015557.4%89 W · 66 L-0.2wins0.00per pick58cpaid-2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5669…e058backed Over50c2,000$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,0004854.2%26 W · 22 L+2.3wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+7.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc1b3…501cbacked Over47c2,000$940 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,059.994353.5%23 W · 20 L+3.6wins+0.08per pick45cpaid+16.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe864…ce58backed Over50c1,995$998 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$997.518048.9%88 W · 92 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+7.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5628…abbcbacked Over50c1,982$986 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$995.1413356.4%75 W · 58 L+10.8wins+0.08per pick48cpaid+18.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa827…dcc2backed Over48c1,944$933 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,010.81475%3 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.25per pick50cpaid+50.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x42f1…bebdbacked Over51c1,943$991 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$952.271100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+96.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xefce…4e4abacked Under51c1,940$991 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$991.2534746.1%160 W · 187 L-11.7wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf41a…ea2bbacked Over47c1,937$910 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,026.372,68748.5%1,303 W · 1,384 L+4.8wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd04d…bfc2backed Over51c1,750$892 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$857.291145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-7.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf5a7…63e7backed Under51c1,458$743 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$743.4455749.2%274 W · 283 L-7.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Over50c1,264$631 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$633.545,55347.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L+26.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid-3.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x058e…a2acbacked Over48c1,156$555 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$601.371353.8%7 W · 6 L+1.4wins+0.11per pick43cpaid+17.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xda75…bbf9backed Under51c1,016$518 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$518.1823754.9%130 W · 107 L+4.7wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe182…b624backed Over48c1,010$485 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$525.25552.7%29 W · 26 L+2.3wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+6.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaaa2…c75fbacked Over47c1,000$470 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5301952.6%10 W · 9 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+8.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf9e5…b4bdbacked Over50c1,000$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5002152.4%11 W · 10 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcaf7…d180backed Over50c1,000$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$500333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick50cpaid-33.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4946…9c5ebacked Over50c1,000$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$500683.3%5 W · 1 L+2.1wins+0.34per pick49cpaid+70.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x7771…009fbacked Under52c1,000$520 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52012344.7%55 W · 68 L-3.4wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xec4d…07b9backed Over50c1,000$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$500250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9512…67a2backed Over50c1,000$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$500250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc7ed…4acdbacked Over50c1,000$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$500425%1 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.23per pick48cpaid-50%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5614…83d0backed Over50c1,000$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5003100%3 W · 0 L+1.5wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+104.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5f6f…ece6backed Over50c1,000$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$500520%1 W · 4 L-1.5wins-0.30per pick50cpaid-60%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2f23…7333backed Over50c1,000$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5003138.7%12 W · 19 L-3.3wins-0.11per pick49cpaid-22.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5c57…5b16backed Over49c999.97$490 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$509.9842948.5%208 W · 221 L-0.7wins0.00per pick49cpaid-4.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Over47c977.43$459 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$518.041,23444.8%553 W · 681 L-32.8wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-8.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6a32…0086backed Over47c961.36$452 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$509.5222349.3%110 W · 113 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5318…1118backed Under53c935.17$496 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$495.641838.9%7 W · 11 L-2.0wins-0.11per pick50cpaid-25.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa307…8ea3backed Under49c830.21$407 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$406.811243.8%49 W · 63 L-5.5wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-12.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd5b0…f655backed Over50c788.83$394 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$394.414438.6%17 W · 27 L-3.8wins-0.09per pick47cpaid-25.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Over47c740.49$348 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$392.461,43647.5%682 W · 754 L-18.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2714…960fbacked Under52c700$364 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36416147.2%76 W · 85 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xad0b…9eb1backed Over50c607.84$304 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$303.921080%8 W · 2 L+3.1wins+0.31per pick49cpaid+61.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x9b66…336abacked Over49c606.89$297 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$309.5124847.6%118 W · 130 L+3.9wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+1.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd6a8…58fdbacked Under51c606.38$310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$309.597540%30 W · 45 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa917…4e8dbacked Under50c594.75$297 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$297.383357.6%19 W · 14 L+2.4wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+14.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc61d…3933backed Under50c594.75$297 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$297.38911.1%1 W · 8 L-2.7wins-0.30per pick41cpaid-78.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xb552…94a8backed Over47c592.79$279 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$314.1860548.9%296 W · 309 L+10.3wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2cec…5326backed Over49c578.7$282 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29785248.8%416 W · 436 L+4.4wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x60fe…f286backed Under53c561.1$297 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$297.3840%0 W · 4 L-2.1wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x0c69…2b8dbacked Under52c559.29$290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$290.0169350.4%349 W · 344 L+0.4wins0.00per pick50cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa535…9e5ebacked Under51c553.12$282 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$282.091080%8 W · 2 L+3.0wins+0.30per pick50cpaid+78.7%equal weight59+0.09 edge/pick
0xe44c…f15cbacked Over49c551.26$270 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$281.142147.6%10 W · 11 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-10.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xae84…fd9dbacked Under50c497.61$249 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$248.82330.4%7 W · 16 L-3.6wins-0.16per pick46cpaid-38.8%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x701f…9b8fbacked Over49c495.63$243 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$252.773151.6%16 W · 15 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick53cpaid+2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1fa3…ab9cbacked Under52c476.57$248 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$247.821118.2%2 W · 9 L-3.3wins-0.30per pick48cpaid-65.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x3cc0…1912backed Over50c459.24$230 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$229.621250%6 W · 6 L-0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid-12.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2123…8d70backed Over51c455.98$233 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$223.439151.6%47 W · 44 L+3.2wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+3.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x76b4…ca9bbacked Over47c450$212 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$238.51258.3%7 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick53cpaid-1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbf26…6fe2backed Over48c413.03$198 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$214.772748.1%13 W · 14 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+5.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xedc8…3296backed Under49c397.15$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$194.62128.6%6 W · 15 L-3.3wins-0.16per pick44cpaid-41.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xd753…0c67backed Over50c396.5$198 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$198.251100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc42c…42a1backed Over49c395.51$194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$201.7163551.5%327 W · 308 L+9.3wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7f52…c525backed Under51c388.73$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$198.255949.2%29 W · 30 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x67e6…86edbacked Under50c370.55$187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$186.6529650.7%150 W · 146 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9a8f…5259backed Under50c297.38$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.693177.4%24 W · 7 L+7.0wins+0.22per pick55cpaid+46.2%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0xade1…0493backed Over50c297.38$149 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$148.69333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick50cpaid-33.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xefde…6505backed Over50c280.08$139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$140.6192246%424 W · 498 L+1.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid+2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc8da…a6e6backed Over50c276.85$138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.431241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-28.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x556c…93cebacked Over49c273.1$134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$139.282065%13 W · 7 L+3.4wins+0.17per pick48cpaid+35.5%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x068c…582ebacked Under51c266.28$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.82462.5%15 W · 9 L+2.0wins+0.08per pick54cpaid+12.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf1f0…c9e4backed Under51c253.76$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.4222954.1%124 W · 105 L+5.6wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+6.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb74f…030abacked Under51c253.76$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.421566.7%10 W · 5 L+2.2wins+0.15per pick52cpaid+28%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xe60c…d2e2backed Under51c252.67$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.866261.3%38 W · 24 L+5.4wins+0.09per pick53cpaid+16.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb996…038cbacked Under50c237.9$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.955660.7%34 W · 22 L+4.7wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+15.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xa8f3…e544backed Over48c210$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.257448.3%277 W · 297 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x87b8…29dcbacked Over48c210$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.212147.9%58 W · 63 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+6.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.