MLB · resolved market
Boston Red Sox vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xec9277ac3f7056567c0a4e7e9dba75db478cd1162d83286b992eb09f9ff42bed
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,889
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,010
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,889 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 50c | 3,499$1,745 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,745.3 | 678 | 49.3%334 W · 344 L | +7.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce99…637ebacked Over | 50c | 3,000$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,500 | 86 | 46.5%40 W · 46 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Over | 50c | 2,500$1,250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,250 | 672 | 50.1%337 W · 335 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 50c | 2,090$1,045 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,045.2 | 323 | 48.9%158 W · 165 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Under | 50c | 743.04$371 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$371.25 | 105 | 39%41 W · 64 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0dad…4855backed Over | 50c | 500$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250 | 210 | 52.9%111 W · 99 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca4…aa92backed Over | 50c | 400$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 100 | 57%57 W · 43 L | +6.2wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 48c | 303.07$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.23 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed45…3de8backed Over | 51c | 300$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a96…0d7cbacked Over | 53c | 232.36$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.29 | 33 | 63.6%21 W · 12 L | +4.5wins | +0.14per pick | 50cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb7cb…bc54backed Over | 52c | 192.4$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.4 | 149 | 53%79 W · 70 L | +10.3wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8d10…940abacked Over | 52c | 171.42$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83 | 1,014 | 47.7%484 W · 530 L | -28.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x298c…3e58backed Under | 50c | 160$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 69 | 46.4%32 W · 37 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8632…4696backed Under | 49c | 102$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.98 | 144 | 44.4%64 W · 80 L | -7.0wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Over | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 2,261 | 45.4%1,026 W · 1,235 L | +57.4wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe414…c341backed Under | 49c | 71.42$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 218 | 47.7%104 W · 114 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Over | 50c | 70$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 722 | 47.6%344 W · 378 L | -12.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe33d…9512backed Under | 50c | 69.97$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.33 | 172 | 44.2%76 W · 96 L | -7.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3dcf…4eb4backed Under | 49c | 68.94$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.78 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -4.6wins | -0.18per pick | 49cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xca2d…39edbacked Over | 51c | 62$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.38 | 232 | 48.7%113 W · 119 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Under | 49c | 62$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.38 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 48c | 56.6$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.44 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Under | 50c | 43.48$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.74 | 1,572 | 48.3%759 W · 813 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73d6…09edbacked Under | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 65 | 49.2%32 W · 33 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked Under | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 509 | 49.5%252 W · 257 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5308…3221backed Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 403 | 52.4%211 W · 192 L | +15.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc01d…2e79backed Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 62 | 48.4%30 W · 32 L | -5.1wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Boston Red Sox vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 7.5this page
- Boston Red Sox vs. Cincinnati RedsCincinnati Reds won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 8.5Over won
- NRFI: Boston Red Sox vs. Cincinnati RedsNo won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5)Cincinnati Reds won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.