MLB · resolved market
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xefc02e791fbc30996294f00307012816be28ede86506e6495b099e696ae77280
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Cincinnati Redsof Boston Red Sox, Cincinnati Reds
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,875
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,705
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,875 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Boston Red Sox | 43c | 1,125$484 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$483.74 | 650 | 50.3%327 W · 323 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x63bf…e319backed Cincinnati Reds | 57c | 1,048$597 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$450.64 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Cincinnati Reds | 55c | 520.24$287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.91 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4328…11d2backed Boston Red Sox | 45c | 487.64$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.56 | 67 | 49.3%33 W · 34 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7963…78a1backed Cincinnati Reds | 57c | 263.74$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.74 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -5.8wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x804c…7846backed Boston Red Sox | 33c | 228.64$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe65b…271bbacked Boston Red Sox | 44c | 227.27$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 125 | 49.6%62 W · 63 L | -5.7wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0204…0e31backed Boston Red Sox | 45c | 222.22$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 180 | 48.3%87 W · 93 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Cincinnati Reds | 56c | 168$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.92 | 465 | 47.1%219 W · 246 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Cincinnati Reds | 53c | 161.05$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.01 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe649…4e37backed Boston Red Sox | 46c | 152.17$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 569 | 46.9%267 W · 302 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Cincinnati Reds | 55c | 122.11$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.44 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…4648backed Cincinnati Reds | 57c | 100$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +3.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7634…600dbacked Boston Red Sox | 47c | 99.99$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 603 | 50.1%302 W · 301 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x373a…f4c1backed Boston Red Sox | 43c | 99.99$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 125 | 52%65 W · 60 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72a1…1950backed Cincinnati Reds | 57c | 87.72$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.72 | 113 | 52.2%59 W · 54 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe414…c341backed Cincinnati Reds | 56c | 71.42$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.42 | 218 | 47.7%104 W · 114 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Cincinnati Reds | 72c | 59.36$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.59 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7b6…4587backed Boston Red Sox | 45c | 50.64$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.75 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -3.1wins | -0.20per pick | 47cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x94a5…4eb8backed Cincinnati Reds | 57c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 126 | 51.6%65 W · 61 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8941…83d7backed Cincinnati Reds | 58c | 41$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.22 | 153 | 51.6%79 W · 74 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Boston Red Sox | 43c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 105 | 39%41 W · 64 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Boston Red Sox | 42c | 29.63$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.44 | 1,572 | 48.3%759 W · 813 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ff2…cf14backed Boston Red Sox | 44c | 28.4$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Cincinnati Reds | 57c | 23.26$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 85 | 30.6%26 W · 59 L | -6.6wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xba00…747cbacked Cincinnati Reds | 57c | 20.2$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.71 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | -8.1wins | -0.26per pick | 55cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5)this page
- Boston Red Sox vs. Cincinnati RedsCincinnati Reds won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 7.5Over won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 8.5Over won
- NRFI: Boston Red Sox vs. Cincinnati RedsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.