TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NHL · resolved market

Bruins vs. Blue Jackets

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Bruinsof Bruins, Blue Jackets
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,093,611
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,114,221

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,093,611 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 623 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NHL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x03e8…1697backed Blue Jackets60c235,933$142,203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142,203.1367051%342 W · 328 L+9.3wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee00…cea1backed Bruins53c171,859$91,001 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80,857.5944848.9%219 W · 229 L+12.0wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-1.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb45a…192cbacked Bruins40c150,000$60,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89,999.8922443.8%98 W · 126 L-5.3wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-6.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1925…4654backed Blue Jackets60c136,836$82,189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82,189.2511644.8%52 W · 64 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-4.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5bec…b215backed Blue Jackets54c81,469$43,980 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43,980.4216442.7%70 W · 94 L-3.8wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-6.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc257…358ebacked Blue Jackets60c50,000$30,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30,00048545.4%220 W · 265 L-7.8wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-6.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf28e…cab2backed Bruins46c48,481$22,303 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26,177.6410650%53 W · 53 L+2.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdd92…6b2abacked Bruins40c40,000$16,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24,00014650.7%74 W · 72 L+8.5wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+13.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb6ae…4df8backed Blue Jackets60c36,817$22,090 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22,090.1136748%176 W · 191 L-12.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-6.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Bruins40c27,909$11,088 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,821.1461950.1%310 W · 309 L-7.6wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x37c1…c53abacked Bruins39c27,814$10,847 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,966.5451550.7%261 W · 254 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf988…d63bbacked Bruins41c21,600$8,856 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,7445149%25 W · 26 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-10.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1fe3…fec3backed Bruins47c21,281$10,011 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,270.05250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick56cpaid+6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Bruins40c13,814$5,538 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,276.731,44149.2%709 W · 732 L+6.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed Blue Jackets76c12,607$9,591 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,59185250.2%428 W · 424 L-26.2wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-6.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe790…eadcbacked Blue Jackets68c12,407$8,405 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,405.1127448.9%134 W · 140 L-6.4wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-13.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Bruins34c12,308$4,198 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,109.912,11242.9%907 W · 1,205 L-10.1wins0.00per pick43cpaid-9.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Bruins40c12,000$4,770 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,2301,55551.4%800 W · 755 L+12.2wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbd09…a188backed Bruins34c10,000$3,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,599.9861748.5%299 W · 318 L+0.4wins0.00per pick48cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd267…9dc6backed Bruins39c9,900$3,861 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,0397659.2%45 W · 31 L+7.9wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+29.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xc49f…9e05backed Blue Jackets60c9,000$5,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,399.9926058.8%153 W · 107 L+17.7wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+15%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7d80…ba3dbacked Bruins39c8,250$3,218 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,032.52470.8%17 W · 7 L+3.1wins+0.13per pick58cpaid+25.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x842a…7422backed Blue Jackets60c7,960$4,776 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,775.9140356.3%227 W · 176 L+5.3wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1467…4372backed Bruins40c7,500$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,50032151.7%166 W · 155 L-1.5wins0.00per pick52cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1df2…89a0backed Bruins11c6,855$730 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,125.0133234.3%114 W · 218 L-4.7wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-24.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6203…6280backed Bruins40c6,680$2,672 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,007.943240.6%13 W · 19 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Bruins39c6,252$2,438 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,813.722,66451.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L+58.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Bruins18c6,195$1,114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,081.252,31446.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L-7.5wins0.00per pick47cpaid-5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a72…33eebacked Bruins48c5,488$2,658 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,829.951,34554.8%737 W · 608 L+21.0wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Bruins28c5,357$1,520 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,837.652,75447.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L+11.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid-8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd2d7…6a0ebacked Blue Jackets60c5,333$3,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,199.8650%3 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid+1.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x35a6…cb8fbacked Bruins41c5,066$2,077 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,988.882429.2%7 W · 17 L-4.2wins-0.17per pick47cpaid-37.4%equal weight41-0.09 edge/pick
0x0a77…9d74backed Bruins40c5,000$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,00052050%260 W · 260 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe4fc…8af7backed Bruins40c4,800$1,920 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,879.9960249.5%298 W · 304 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2f5b…e747backed Bruins40c4,800$1,920 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,879.7843548.5%211 W · 224 L-7.4wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa3da…843cbacked Blue Jackets60c4,666$2,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,799.6333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.23per pick56cpaid-24.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1418…6fefbacked Bruins40c4,500$1,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,70027850.4%140 W · 138 L+1.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Bruins39c4,388$1,724 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,663.7459450.8%302 W · 292 L+2.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9bd3…41f8backed Bruins47c4,265$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,264.973240.6%13 W · 19 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-16.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x06b2…0c61backed Blue Jackets0c4,155$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.14100%0 W · 10 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7edb…7993backed Bruins52c4,024$2,090 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,934.0627037.4%101 W · 169 L-11.6wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-33.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Bruins40c4,002$1,611 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,391.11,43450.8%728 W · 706 L-10.7wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe0db…f44ebacked Blue Jackets59c4,000$2,360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,359.9939752.1%207 W · 190 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8753…85adbacked Blue Jackets60c3,950$2,350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,350.4861959.1%366 W · 253 L+17.9wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc762…95f0backed Bruins40c3,947$1,598 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,348.86100%6 W · 0 L+2.8wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+92.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x2576…0670backed Bruins41c3,876$1,589 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,287.29850%4 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid+5.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x82b7…cc32backed Bruins41c3,822$1,567 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,254.986443.8%28 W · 36 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-0.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbe96…7dabbacked Bruins41c3,703$1,518 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,184.773100%3 W · 0 L+1.7wins+0.56per pick44cpaid+129.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc94a…cfcabacked Bruins40c3,428$1,371 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,056.81163.6%7 W · 4 L+1.4wins+0.13per pick51cpaid+37.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb4c6…75adbacked Bruins9c3,424$312 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,112.2840152.4%210 W · 191 L+21.2wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+8.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x51d3…a31cbacked Bruins41c3,333$1,367 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,966.471100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.59per pick41cpaid+143.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x685d…22d6backed Bruins40c3,328$1,331 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,996.6512552%65 W · 60 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x30ce…fdcebacked Bruins2c3,180$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,120.4315057.3%86 W · 64 L+14.8wins+0.10per pick47cpaid+44.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x92fc…2f25backed Bruins40c3,028$1,211 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,816.51353.8%7 W · 6 L+0.7wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+14.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcf10…691bbacked Blue Jackets1c3,003$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.8124749%121 W · 126 L+0.9wins0.00per pick49cpaid-9.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdb2b…8210backed Bruins41c2,962$1,214 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,747.58450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+25.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1341…0853backed Blue Jackets53c2,747$1,455 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,454.9141850%209 W · 209 L+7.7wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2302…d6d2backed Bruins46c2,735$1,260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,475.2837754.4%205 W · 172 L+5.9wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x56f0…0e11backed Blue Jackets60c2,731$1,639 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,638.68837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.16per pick54cpaid-34.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdb47…2bb6backed Bruins40c2,650$1,060 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,590944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-10.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5919…95acbacked Bruins41c2,573$1,058 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,515.0212152.1%63 W · 58 L-2.7wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-5.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x39d3…9ef0backed Bruins40c2,557$1,023 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,534.218641.9%78 W · 108 L-8.5wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-11.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6f74…9745backed Blue Jackets60c2,551$1,530 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,530.46862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.08per pick55cpaid+20.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x079f…a9d1backed Bruins24c2,545$606 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,938.859442.6%40 W · 54 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-20.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1478…6efbbacked Blue Jackets60c2,541$1,525 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,524.62728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.6wins-0.22per pick51cpaid-54.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x32cc…68b3backed Blue Jackets62c2,314$1,440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,440.0333450.9%170 W · 164 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1b8f…f31bbacked Bruins47c2,263$1,071 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,191.416949.3%34 W · 35 L-2.6wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-10.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5116…58c4backed Bruins47c2,222$1,044 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,177.6675251.7%389 W · 363 L-2.1wins0.00per pick52cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1d3a…7b63backed Blue Jackets59c2,222$1,311 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,310.9486649.9%432 W · 434 L+1.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9f13…e0fdbacked Bruins39c2,179$850 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,329.4847951.4%246 W · 233 L-5.6wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa9e8…731cbacked Bruins39c2,145$837 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,308.456835.3%24 W · 44 L-9.6wins-0.14per pick49cpaid-31.7%equal weight38-0.10 edge/pick
0xa701…86a3backed Bruins7c2,093$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,943.344330.2%13 W · 30 L+3.5wins+0.08per pick22cpaid+22.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb552…94a8backed Bruins41c2,000$820 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,18061953.8%333 W · 286 L+13.2wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+4.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xca3f…8078backed Bruins40c2,000$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,20062249.4%307 W · 315 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8c0b…7aa5backed Bruins46c2,000$916 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,0848252.4%43 W · 39 L+6.2wins+0.08per pick45cpaid+12.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x617b…a499backed Bruins39c2,000$780 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,219.9722747.6%108 W · 119 L-7.0wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4b49…0397backed Bruins40c2,000$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,199.9720450%102 W · 102 L-4.5wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa99c…3070backed Bruins10c1,998$201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,797.4129319.8%58 W · 235 L-9.4wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-23.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd589…27c2backed Bruins40c1,991$787 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,204.5242847.2%202 W · 226 L+5.8wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc463…9a2fbacked Bruins40c1,990$796 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,193.9826750.2%134 W · 133 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x56c2…17bfbacked Bruins38c1,892$719 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,172.9725447.2%120 W · 134 L-1.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-4.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x299f…2140backed Bruins40c1,887$755 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,132.4638849.5%192 W · 196 L+0.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb580…9b95backed Bruins24c1,872$447 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,424.77450%37 W · 37 L+2.0wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Bruins46c1,844$850 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$993.8289355.5%496 W · 397 L+67.6wins+0.08per pick48cpaid+12.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6185…2965backed Bruins40c1,839$738 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,100.813450%17 W · 17 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+6.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Bruins39c1,794$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,094.3483149.5%411 W · 420 L-9.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5dba…116abacked Bruins41c1,787$733 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,054.39560%3 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+20.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0b45…ac9fbacked Bruins24c1,783$435 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,348.1313343.6%58 W · 75 L-4.9wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-16.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xec8d…dd71backed Bruins39c1,762$687 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,074.762846.4%13 W · 15 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x28ce…26c2backed Blue Jackets60c1,723$1,034 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,033.5730%0 W · 3 L-1.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8946…aa24backed Bruins40c1,675$670 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,005875%6 W · 2 L+2.1wins+0.26per pick49cpaid+50.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed Bruins41c1,662$682 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$980.882043%353 W · 467 L-1.9wins0.00per pick43cpaid-8.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Bruins23c1,642$377 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,265.271,35452.6%712 W · 642 L+46.2wins+0.03per pick49cpaid-8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4699…5051backed Bruins18c1,633$294 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,339.33714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick13cpaid-20.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x46e6…ed5ebacked Bruins46c1,600$731 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$868.861225%3 W · 9 L-2.6wins-0.21per pick46cpaid-49.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x9b35…5da2backed Bruins12c1,551$185 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,365.9922043.2%95 W · 125 L+8.8wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+2.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed Bruins45c1,550$701 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$849.0428340.3%114 W · 169 L-24.4wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-26.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x49fa…f904backed Bruins41c1,509$616 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$893.583636.1%13 W · 23 L-2.0wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-19%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xaa07…2125backed Blue Jackets53c1,508$805 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$805.241,07049.9%534 W · 536 L+22.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3c7e…a65fbacked Bruins26c1,475$378 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,097.4460337.5%226 W · 377 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-8.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.