TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Rockets vs. Pelicans

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Rocketsof Rockets, Pelicans
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,016,310
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,322,239

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,016,310 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 1,407 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xb3cf…0ebdbacked Pelicans5c146,160$7,791 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,791.21,27138.3%487 W · 784 L-13.4wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1961…c461backed Pelicans31c100,000$31,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30,999.948750.6%44 W · 43 L+0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid+11.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Pelicans6c76,477$4,779 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,779.334,87848%2,341 W · 2,537 L+61.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa8e0…ad50backed Pelicans32c69,213$22,056 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22,056.0843148.7%210 W · 221 L-5.4wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x37c1…c53abacked Pelicans22c60,366$13,280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,279.731,91549.3%944 W · 971 L+19.7wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdd92…6b2abacked Pelicans32c40,000$12,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,799.9312639.7%50 W · 76 L-6.4wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-8.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x30d1…cd88backed Rockets64c37,762$24,263 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,498.474151.2%21 W · 20 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xacb2…b989backed Pelicans23c37,500$8,720 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,720.0549244.3%218 W · 274 L+11.8wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xccf1…25a0backed Pelicans5c26,352$1,278 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,277.631,52249.6%755 W · 767 L+27.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x68ca…9f73backed Rockets69c24,882$17,169 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,713.4932540.3%131 W · 194 L-10.2wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-12.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe790…eadcbacked Rockets70c24,191$16,941 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,250.6820744%91 W · 116 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-25.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8716…bd57backed Pelicans32c23,135$7,403 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,403.3441832.8%137 W · 281 L-10.5wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-18.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9438…ad81backed Pelicans2c21,992$399 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$399.253179.5%30 W · 287 L-4.0wins-0.01per pick11cpaid-59.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Pelicans28c20,938$5,918 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,918.492,94951.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L+119.4wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+3.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8b9a…5f69backed Pelicans0c20,827$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.795213.8%20 W · 501 L+0.6wins0.00per pick4cpaid-36.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9615…60ddbacked Rockets69c20,000$13,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,20014853.4%79 W · 69 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Rockets70c19,891$14,005 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,885.892,04548.4%990 W · 1,055 L-30.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9db8…2effbacked Pelicans4c17,752$790 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$790.333737.8%14 W · 23 L+1.9wins+0.05per pick33cpaid-6.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Pelicans32c15,821$5,030 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,030.374,78150.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L+20.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xecfc…cd05backed Rockets69c15,391$10,616 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,775.121,16352.8%614 W · 549 L+22.4wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Pelicans16c15,318$2,521 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,520.65,05350.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L+110.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x412f…30fabacked Pelicans5c13,777$690 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$690.3735744.3%158 W · 199 L+1.5wins0.00per pick44cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbc31…4a51backed Rockets68c13,735$9,340 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,395.2113063.8%83 W · 47 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick63cpaid+0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Pelicans20c13,517$2,769 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,768.818,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec7e…5fddbacked Pelicans25c13,500$3,368 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,368.163554.3%19 W · 16 L+5.0wins+0.14per pick40cpaid+19.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x5919…95acbacked Rockets68c13,259$8,953 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,305.6311543.5%50 W · 65 L-6.0wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-14.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x299f…2140backed Pelicans31c12,935$4,010 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,009.871,14148%548 W · 593 L+9.0wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Pelicans31c12,775$3,944 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,944.164,32547%2,031 W · 2,294 L-69.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x433f…a0dcbacked Pelicans0c12,722$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.4416919.5%33 W · 136 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick20cpaid-27.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa5f6…a659backed Pelicans31c12,000$3,720 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,72027241.9%114 W · 158 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-11.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x62fb…4d60backed Pelicans33c11,622$3,835 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,835.2535547.3%168 W · 187 L+6.1wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+4.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe9cb…d096backed Pelicans14c10,694$1,533 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,532.931,00334.7%348 W · 655 L-44.7wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-35.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb45d…a406backed Pelicans1c10,268$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.5627917.9%50 W · 229 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick19cpaid-44.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9f50…3191backed Rockets69c10,168$7,011 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,157.37865.4%51 W · 27 L+2.1wins+0.03per pick63cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x84db…aeebbacked Rockets68c10,150$6,902 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,247.981,37450.1%689 W · 685 L+34.9wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+7.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x37de…f512backed Pelicans20c9,950$2,036 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,035.871,39026%361 W · 1,029 L-5.6wins0.00per pick26cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2f5b…e747backed Rockets67c9,600$6,432 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,167.9865939.5%260 W · 399 L-13.1wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3bcf…dc5cbacked Pelicans5c9,550$509 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$508.629629.2%28 W · 68 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-35.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0d03…9e27backed Pelicans22c9,228$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0008532.9%28 W · 57 L-3.3wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-11.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe4fc…8af7backed Rockets67c8,400$5,628 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,771.9986641.5%359 W · 507 L-2.2wins0.00per pick42cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x351e…de8abacked Pelicans32c8,181$2,618 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,617.9237747.5%179 W · 198 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4435…0840backed Pelicans32c7,813$2,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,50026648.5%129 W · 137 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Pelicans10c7,749$769 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$769.4262144%273 W · 348 L+0.1wins0.00per pick44cpaid-16.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1418…6fefbacked Rockets67c7,186$4,815 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,371.3643438.5%167 W · 267 L-1.9wins0.00per pick39cpaid-4.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x26e9…cd29backed Pelicans0c7,000$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15137.7%1 W · 12 L-0.8wins-0.06per pick14cpaid-86.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb2e6…7ce6backed Pelicans33c7,000$2,310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,3101855.6%10 W · 8 L+2.3wins+0.13per pick43cpaid+23.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xfec6…f355backed Rockets67c6,990$4,683 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,306.663847.4%18 W · 20 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick49cpaid+10.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2a59…9a2fbacked Rockets68c6,841$4,621 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,220.0616863.1%106 W · 62 L+2.8wins+0.02per pick61cpaid+1.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4c03…0cc1backed Pelicans3c6,606$182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181.941,60211.8%189 W · 1,413 L-4.8wins0.00per pick12cpaid-6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb5b7…7ffabacked Pelicans5c6,574$307 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3074535.6%16 W · 29 L-4.4wins-0.10per pick45cpaid-20.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xdaef…e17dbacked Pelicans33c6,000$1,980 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,980.065032%16 W · 34 L-2.9wins-0.06per pick38cpaid-29.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbfcd…b6e0backed Pelicans33c6,000$1,980 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,980850%4 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+40.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7792…b63bbacked Rockets67c6,000$4,020 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,979.984940.8%20 W · 29 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick39cpaid-15.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbce9…03e9backed Pelicans0c5,955$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.358820%0 W · 882 L-6.7wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x97e2…6014backed Rockets67c5,900$3,972 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,9281136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-27.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xda5f…2e9bbacked Rockets64c5,839$3,737 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,102.141954.4%228 W · 191 L+1.9wins0.00per pick54cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa5aa…9134backed Rockets70c5,707$3,995 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,712.119957.8%115 W · 84 L+18.2wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+19.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xe46e…1567backed Pelicans33c5,686$1,877 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,876.52425%1 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.13per pick38cpaid-19.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4b3d…2a01backed Pelicans33c5,513$1,819 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,819.17520%1 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.19per pick39cpaid-28.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd696…8a49backed Pelicans18c5,300$954 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9541,21248.3%586 W · 626 L-20.4wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8000…3a21backed Rockets68c5,000$3,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,60025947.5%123 W · 136 L+14.5wins+0.06per pick42cpaid+7.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7320…28b4backed Rockets69c5,000$3,450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,55012657.1%72 W · 54 L+11.4wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+15.1%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xdb6b…a33dbacked Pelicans0c5,000$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.510914.7%16 W · 93 L+4.0wins+0.04per pick11cpaid-14.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4137…586cbacked Pelicans31c5,000$1,550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,549.9947043.8%206 W · 264 L-22.2wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-12.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x223f…2ea0backed Pelicans33c4,880$1,610 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,610.281070%7 W · 3 L+1.6wins+0.16per pick54cpaid+25.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xea60…1cedbacked Pelicans33c4,877$1,609 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,609.35944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.09per pick54cpaid-35.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xefe1…edcdbacked Pelicans33c4,846$1,599 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,599.22560%3 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.13per pick47cpaid+36.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x80fc…d404backed Rockets69c4,841$3,333 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,507.543969.2%27 W · 12 L+1.9wins+0.05per pick64cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x77d3…f4d6backed Pelicans34c4,792$1,627 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,626.9529250%146 W · 146 L+9.2wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7c44…9246backed Pelicans33c4,763$1,572 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,571.881050%5 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.6%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xc6fd…f43ebacked Rockets71c4,706$3,341 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,364.6310746.7%50 W · 57 L-4.2wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-5.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdd0c…3920backed Pelicans33c4,669$1,541 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,540.74922.2%2 W · 7 L-2.1wins-0.23per pick45cpaid-65.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x64d1…7709backed Pelicans33c4,653$1,536 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,535.55933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.7wins-0.19per pick52cpaid-43.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x52ed…8db7backed Pelicans32c4,624$1,479 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,478.6239349.1%193 W · 200 L+1.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Pelicans9c4,609$401 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401.111,63341.2%672 W · 961 L+26.3wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5aa9…febebacked Pelicans3c4,332$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.161,09640.9%448 W · 648 L+34.3wins+0.03per pick38cpaid-17%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x649e…50f0backed Rockets69c4,322$2,997 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,325.283568.6%24 W · 11 L+1.7wins+0.05per pick64cpaid+5.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa67f…b74ebacked Pelicans33c4,211$1,390 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,389.74250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.10per pick41cpaid+4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1df2…89a0backed Pelicans2c4,166$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.8536023.1%83 W · 277 L-15.6wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-49.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x05ee…541bbacked Pelicans32c4,063$1,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,300666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.18per pick49cpaid+39.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1f09…9312backed Pelicans37c4,052$1,507 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,506.989547.4%45 W · 50 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe7ca…a175backed Pelicans5c4,040$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$194.9682442.2%348 W · 476 L-3.7wins0.00per pick43cpaid-1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x629c…6c01backed Rockets67c4,000$2,680 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,319.9913148.1%63 W · 68 L+0.4wins0.00per pick48cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf7c4…5919backed Pelicans4c3,868$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14167911%75 W · 604 L+7.6wins+0.01per pick10cpaid-11%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9431…ad35backed Pelicans31c3,530$1,094 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,094.2510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x622e…07abbacked Rockets69c3,500$2,415 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,08517356.1%97 W · 76 L+8.5wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+4.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6c03…d894backed Pelicans1c3,423$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.275848.3%28 W · 30 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-14.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Rockets76c3,422$2,604 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$817.453,66841.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L-70.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-15.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0eb7…1f17backed Rockets64c3,111$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,110.842348%203 W · 220 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-15%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcacf…35ffbacked Pelicans1c3,090$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.547211%7 W · 714 L-2.6wins0.00per pick1cpaid-32.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xff5b…c583backed Rockets67c3,000$2,010 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99020847.6%99 W · 109 L-7.6wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-12.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x42ec…ad28backed Rockets68c2,941$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$941.182785.2%23 W · 4 L+4.8wins+0.18per pick67cpaid+29.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x8dd1…5a9bbacked Rockets69c2,899$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$898.5516261.7%100 W · 62 L-9.2wins-0.06per pick67cpaid-9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4154…d35bbacked Pelicans5c2,861$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.0740%0 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2827…5139backed Pelicans33c2,811$927 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$927.491040%4 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-21.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb8bd…478fbacked Rockets64c2,807$1,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,006.6919443.3%84 W · 110 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-8.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xefce…4e4abacked Pelicans36c2,805$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00064944.7%290 W · 359 L-9.5wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Pelicans36c2,778$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0001,75848.7%856 W · 902 L+28.3wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd4d9…bdd5backed Pelicans33c2,763$912 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$911.87757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-15.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd6b2…f6e2backed Pelicans25c2,582$635 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6352748.1%13 W · 14 L+2.6wins+0.09per pick39cpaid+3.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.