NBA · resolved market
Spread: Rockets (-7.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x566e4247f9473fd59debb95eb1afb3298f782e74d0c41c4d32e3ede57dfef166
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Rocketsof Rockets, Pelicans
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,372
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,872
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,372 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe7ca…a175backed Pelicans | 48c | 2,083$1,004 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,004.21 | 824 | 42.2%348 W · 476 L | -3.7wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Pelicans | 56c | 1,802$1,009 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,008.99 | 646 | 51.7%334 W · 312 L | -14.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Rockets | 51c | 1,649$839 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$809.61 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0dc…586cbacked Pelicans | 37c | 704.79$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 288 | 38.2%110 W · 178 L | -17.6wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xafaf…1635backed Rockets | 58c | 520.53$304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.9 | 1,036 | 47.6%493 W · 543 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Rockets | 44c | 504.88$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282.73 | 3,341 | 53.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L | +108.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…4b69backed Pelicans | 20c | 400$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 83 | 32.5%27 W · 56 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Rockets | 55c | 353$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.85 | 2,468 | 50.5%1,247 W · 1,221 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Pelicans | 10c | 302.69$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.34 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc33d…0d40backed Rockets | 62c | 295.86$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.72 | 203 | 53.7%109 W · 94 L | +21.5wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +32%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Rockets | 42c | 278.97$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.41 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Pelicans | 28c | 259.36$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.15 | 2,949 | 51.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L | +119.4wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x450b…11d7backed Rockets | 43c | 232.56$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.56 | 521 | 46.6%243 W · 278 L | -14.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x292e…172cbacked Rockets | 44c | 229.04$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.04 | 434 | 47.5%206 W · 228 L | -8.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9013…e7e0backed Pelicans | 54c | 199.77$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.09 | 403 | 44.4%179 W · 224 L | -23.9wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Pelicans | 55c | 198$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.86 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Rockets | 43c | 181.68$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.69 | 1,633 | 41.2%672 W · 961 L | +26.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4980…57febacked Pelicans | 57c | 181.65$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.11 | 102 | 45.1%46 W · 56 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc23…8283backed Pelicans | 58c | 173.8$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 295 | 54.6%161 W · 134 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe414…c341backed Pelicans | 56c | 171.37$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.67 | 813 | 49.4%402 W · 411 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…6292backed Pelicans | 58c | 138.53$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 818 | 45.7%374 W · 444 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b43…fae9backed Rockets | 71c | 137.93$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 311 | 51.1%159 W · 152 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Pelicans | 55c | 135.42$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.7 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1489…9924backed Rockets | 44c | 134.58$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.02 | 193 | 48.2%93 W · 100 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Rockets | 44c | 134.14$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.12 | 1,758 | 48.7%856 W · 902 L | +28.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c1d…1f8fbacked Pelicans | 56c | 131.63$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.19 | 492 | 49.8%245 W · 247 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked Rockets | 44c | 113.64$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.64 | 454 | 45.4%206 W · 248 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9aea…a713backed Rockets | 45c | 111.11$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.11 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x725f…06c2backed Rockets | 45c | 111$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.05 | 1,888 | 37.3%704 W · 1,184 L | +9.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec3…34a7backed Rockets | 47c | 110.72$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.84 | 369 | 49.6%183 W · 186 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Pelicans | 54c | 109.79$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.03 | 1,915 | 49.3%944 W · 971 L | +19.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ac5…f963backed Rockets | 44c | 100.89$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.5 | 100 | 42%42 W · 58 L | -5.4wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6769…f8b9backed Pelicans | 58c | 100$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 64 | 54.7%35 W · 29 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb70d…5925backed Rockets | 42c | 96.57$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.01 | 176 | 43.2%76 W · 100 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Pelicans | 53c | 92.01$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.79 | 1,277 | 47.2%603 W · 674 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Rockets | 42c | 91.61$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.14 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Rockets | 44c | 88$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.28 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x20ec…fa43backed Pelicans | 58c | 86.21$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 610 | 56.1%342 W · 268 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f49…fec0backed Rockets | 44c | 79.07$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.28 | 378 | 48.7%184 W · 194 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1d7…d31abacked Pelicans | 26c | 77.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 216 | 40.3%87 W · 129 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +43.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9808…dbe5backed Pelicans | 63c | 65.08$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa00e…73fabacked Pelicans | 57c | 60$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.2 | 169 | 51.5%87 W · 82 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13e5…1ea5backed Rockets | 49c | 53.96$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.25 | 200 | 49%98 W · 102 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x034b…b22bbacked Rockets | 43c | 52.33$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.83 | 30 | 70%21 W · 9 L | +4.6wins | +0.15per pick | 55cpaid | +18%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbc08…267abacked Pelicans | 58c | 51.72$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 79 | 48.1%38 W · 41 L | -5.2wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x70b9…cea8backed Pelicans | 58c | 51.72$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -3.0wins | -0.23per pick | 54cpaid | -52.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4f9b…cdeebacked Rockets | 60c | 51$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.43 | 786 | 39.2%308 W · 478 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8941…83d7backed Pelicans | 59c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 205 | 58.5%120 W · 85 L | +7.9wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x299f…2140backed Rockets | 41c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 1,141 | 48%548 W · 593 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6bb…6b39backed Rockets | 61c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 80 | 40%32 W · 48 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd454…b47fbacked Rockets | 45c | 49.92$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.46 | 272 | 51.1%139 W · 133 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Pelicans | 52c | 49$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.48 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00d4…4c46backed Rockets | 61c | 45$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.55 | 212 | 42%89 W · 123 L | +12.8wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5fb7…d873backed Pelicans | 57c | 45$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.65 | 122 | 45.9%56 W · 66 L | -6.0wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe2…6158backed Pelicans | 57c | 43.86$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 332 | 49.7%165 W · 167 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b2c…5e10backed Pelicans | 58c | 43.1$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 257 | 52.5%135 W · 122 L | -9.3wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d49…e00abacked Rockets | 58c | 40.17$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.72 | 1,532 | 42.5%651 W · 881 L | -17.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4010…77d4backed Pelicans | 53c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.2 | 481 | 46.2%222 W · 259 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24bb…3e49backed Rockets | 61c | 39$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.21 | 804 | 40.3%324 W · 480 L | +27.4wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Rockets | 42c | 38.26$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.19 | 2,507 | 48.6%1,219 W · 1,288 L | +19.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd51e…ac0cbacked Rockets | 45c | 37.39$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.44 | 516 | 47.5%245 W · 271 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6c8…a184backed Rockets | 61c | 35$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.65 | 404 | 40.1%162 W · 242 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82de…1337backed Rockets | 45c | 34.45$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.86 | 445 | 51.2%228 W · 217 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26dd…0249backed Rockets | 45c | 33.73$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.39 | 414 | 49.3%204 W · 210 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x810d…6080backed Rockets | 45c | 33.73$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.39 | 160 | 46.3%74 W · 86 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbef6…48a3backed Rockets | 45c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36aa…a683backed Pelicans | 55c | 27.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 405 | 48.6%197 W · 208 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x391c…ea3fbacked Pelicans | 58c | 25.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | -4.8wins | -0.10per pick | 56cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6817…936cbacked Rockets | 61c | 24.59$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.59 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -3.0wins | -0.27per pick | 55cpaid | -51%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x91e0…26a0backed Rockets | 61c | 23$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.97 | 455 | 44.8%204 W · 251 L | +21.8wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xccb8…8114backed Pelicans | 57c | 22.33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.72 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1fc…7cc1backed Rockets | 56c | 17.84$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.76 | 144 | 71.5%103 W · 41 L | +22.1wins | +0.15per pick | 56cpaid | +25%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Rockets (-7.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Rockets (-3.5)Rockets won
- Alperen Sengün: Assists O/U 5.5Yes won
- Amen Thompson: Assists O/U 5.5No won
- Amen Thompson: Rebounds O/U 7.5Yes won
- Dejounte Murray: Points O/U 15.5Yes won
- Dejounte Murray: Rebounds O/U 4.5No won
- Jabari Smith Jr.: Points O/U 15.5Yes won
- Kevin Durant: Points O/U 24.5No won
- Rockets vs. PelicansRockets won
- Rockets vs. Pelicans: 1H MoneylineRockets won
- Rockets vs. Pelicans: 1H O/U 109.5Over won
- Rockets vs. Pelicans: O/U 224.5Over won
- Rockets vs. Pelicans: O/U 225.5Over won
- Spread: Rockets (-5.5)Rockets won
- Spread: Rockets (-6.5)Rockets won
- Trey Murphy III: Assists O/U 3.5No won
- Trey Murphy III: Points O/U 20.5No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.