TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Spread: Rockets (-6.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Rocketsof Rockets, Pelicans
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$636,554
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$640,235

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $636,554 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 213 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x60b2…5d8cbacked Pelicans0c223,210$223 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$223.2110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x44fd…b634backed Pelicans53c98,642$52,280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52,280.171643.8%7 W · 9 L-1.3wins-0.08per pick52cpaid-15.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x84db…aeebbacked Rockets47c63,410$29,488 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33,922.081,37450.1%689 W · 685 L+34.9wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+7.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1e77…8c33backed Pelicans53c48,503$25,537 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25,536.6415952.8%84 W · 75 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa8e0…ad50backed Pelicans54c41,379$22,144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22,144.4143148.7%210 W · 221 L-5.4wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc807…c12bbacked Pelicans53c31,991$16,935 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,935.0920545.9%94 W · 111 L-12.8wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-12%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Pelicans5c22,243$1,123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,123.384,87848%2,341 W · 2,537 L+61.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4435…0840backed Rockets47c21,277$10,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,276.626648.5%129 W · 137 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf668…5c69backed Rockets48c20,052$9,676 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,376.1636359.8%217 W · 146 L+23.7wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+14.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xadfa…324ebacked Rockets48c13,938$6,640 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,297.959159.3%54 W · 37 L+9.0wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+20.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Rockets49c12,978$6,395 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,582.896,21350.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L+53.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6e70…f06fbacked Rockets48c11,895$5,725 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,170.366746.3%31 W · 36 L-2.0wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-6.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Rockets64c11,107$7,150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,956.938,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xacb2…b989backed Pelicans51c10,000$5,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,099.9849244.3%218 W · 274 L+11.8wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5919…95acbacked Rockets47c9,419$4,427 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,992.0711543.5%50 W · 65 L-6.0wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-14.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Rockets47c9,101$4,277 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,823.532,04548.4%990 W · 1,055 L-30.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf96…5156backed Rockets48c8,769$4,210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,558.821442.9%6 W · 8 L-0.9wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-14.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed Rockets48c8,494$4,072 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,422.171,91054.3%1,038 W · 872 L+25.2wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa1f3…d99cbacked Rockets49c7,239$3,525 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,714.4748546.4%225 W · 260 L-14.6wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-6.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x842a…7422backed Pelicans53c6,400$3,392 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,391.941,19448.8%583 W · 611 L-22.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd696…8a49backed Rockets47c6,300$2,961 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,3391,21248.3%586 W · 626 L-20.4wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7a99…cd53backed Rockets47c5,717$2,687 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,029.8250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x37c1…c53abacked Rockets47c5,562$2,614 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,947.951,91549.3%944 W · 971 L+19.7wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x37ea…2dd8backed Rockets47c5,532$2,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,931.912100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+112.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xacae…6798backed Rockets49c5,342$2,611 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,730.7611241.1%46 W · 66 L-5.2wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-7.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xecfc…cd05backed Rockets47c5,195$2,442 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,753.351,16352.8%614 W · 549 L+22.4wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x339a…1eaebacked Pelicans52c5,000$2,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,6001,75961.7%1,085 W · 674 L+127.5wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+12.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x0321…1c18backed Rockets47c4,866$2,287 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,578.791100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+112.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Rockets48c4,763$2,286 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,476.674,32547%2,031 W · 2,294 L-69.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Rockets47c4,151$1,969 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,181.584,78150.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L+20.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4244…03a6backed Rockets49c4,082$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,081.6318349.2%90 W · 93 L-0.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x24b3…a5a4backed Rockets49c4,063$1,999 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,064.2211249.1%55 W · 57 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Rockets47c3,992$1,879 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,113.44,68249.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L+27.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1aa2…30ccbacked Rockets49c3,984$1,950 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,033.9338946%179 W · 210 L-13.6wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-7.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe156…134bbacked Pelicans48c3,978$1,929 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,928.9311235.7%40 W · 72 L-2.7wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-17.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x41b4…de82backed Pelicans51c3,350$1,708 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,708.3158740%235 W · 352 L+24.3wins+0.04per pick36cpaid+3.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0d13…92f3backed Rockets47c3,204$1,506 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,698.2670246.4%326 W · 376 L-20.4wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-6.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x91f7…4767backed Rockets47c2,954$1,389 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,565.7610651.9%55 W · 51 L+3.1wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Pelicans39c2,472$962 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$961.623,66841.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L-70.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-15.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x975b…3760backed Rockets49c2,416$1,184 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,232.285547.3%26 W · 29 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x61e8…b283backed Rockets47c2,410$1,133 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,277.4114940.9%61 W · 88 L-11.6wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-16.1%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xf658…655ebacked Pelicans54c2,407$1,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,30014556.6%82 W · 63 L-3.0wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-2.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Pelicans52c2,400$1,247 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,247.321,90148.7%925 W · 976 L+6.5wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Rockets49c2,294$1,133 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,160.392,63036.7%966 W · 1,664 L-119.1wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-25.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf2c7…2e93backed Pelicans54c2,231$1,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,199.9821152.6%111 W · 100 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x360b…982fbacked Rockets50c2,000$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,0004658.7%27 W · 19 L+1.6wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc463…9a2fbacked Pelicans51c2,000$1,020 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,02031046.8%145 W · 165 L+1.5wins0.00per pick46cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xefde…6505backed Rockets47c1,925$905 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,020.51,56247.4%741 W · 821 L-6.3wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xefce…4e4abacked Pelicans52c1,923$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00064944.7%290 W · 359 L-9.5wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Rockets47c1,778$841 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$936.472,94951.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L+119.4wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+3.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb091…040dbacked Pelicans53c1,328$704 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7042948.3%14 W · 15 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Rockets47c1,206$567 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$639.181,90854.5%1,040 W · 868 L+53.7wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Rockets47c1,171$549 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$622.063,90247.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L-17.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x100c…1c2cbacked Rockets51c1,127$575 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$552.262634.6%9 W · 17 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick38cpaid+7.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb552…94a8backed Rockets47c1,120$526 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$593.62,07853.6%1,113 W · 965 L+44.6wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbce5…02f1backed Pelicans48c1,000$480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48018651.6%96 W · 90 L+6.7wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc5df…be7cbacked Pelicans52c999.98$520 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$519.991030%3 W · 7 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick28cpaid+143.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfcc7…1af9backed Pelicans51c985.92$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5005747.4%27 W · 30 L-4.5wins-0.08per pick55cpaid-15.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x299f…2140backed Pelicans53c896.3$475 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$475.041,14148%548 W · 593 L+9.0wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x39c6…0ac1backed Rockets47c773$363 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$409.6954246.7%253 W · 289 L-7.2wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-6.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3349…c0b8backed Pelicans53c754.99$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$400.147048.6%34 W · 36 L-3.4wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-9.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Rockets47c706.97$332 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$374.691,75848.7%856 W · 902 L+28.3wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2714…960fbacked Rockets47c700$329 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37149345.2%223 W · 270 L-14.0wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-6.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9712…0c47backed Rockets49c600$294 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3066934.8%24 W · 45 L-4.5wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-31.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Pelicans50c600$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3002,73646.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L-67.4wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe071…2d1abacked Pelicans54c600$324 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32448957.5%281 W · 208 L+2.4wins0.00per pick57cpaid+2.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xd6a8…58fdbacked Pelicans14c571.76$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.4121443.9%94 W · 120 L+7.8wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+12.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Rockets45c495$223 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$272.252,46850.5%1,247 W · 1,221 L+38.4wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2373…a1f3backed Rockets48c492.41$236 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$255.9256447.9%270 W · 294 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-5.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x22a4…63ebbacked Pelicans52c490.56$255 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$255.0992058%534 W · 386 L+10.4wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xce9d…3c05backed Rockets62c484.48$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$184.4895452.3%499 W · 455 L-17.4wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-3.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd226…38b4backed Rockets47c421.73$197 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$224.4339448.7%192 W · 202 L-1.0wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6292…d254backed Rockets48c419.99$202 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$218.3920846.6%97 W · 111 L-9.6wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-8.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3ede…6c27backed Rockets49c396.02$193 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$203.345151.4%232 W · 219 L+10.4wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x513d…c44cbacked Pelicans54c378.02$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203.691735.3%6 W · 11 L-2.5wins-0.15per pick50cpaid-32.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Rockets47c367.5$173 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$194.773,12044.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L-7.6wins0.00per pick45cpaid-3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcf73…0215backed Rockets48c349.99$169 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$181.31,27747.2%603 W · 674 L-3.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2e6c…e09cbacked Rockets48c346.21$166 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$180.0359250.2%297 W · 295 L+5.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf2a0…1f3dbacked Pelicans15c333.33$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5016725.7%43 W · 124 L-12.4wins-0.07per pick33cpaid-28.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Rockets47c332.41$156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$176.881,63341.2%672 W · 961 L+26.3wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xafaf…1635backed Rockets53c321.29$170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$151.21,03647.6%493 W · 543 L+6.7wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2302…d6d2backed Rockets47c310.89$148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$163.31,28650.8%653 W · 633 L+11.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed Pelicans25c288.27$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.491,28323.4%300 W · 983 L-178.2wins-0.14per pick37cpaid-40.2%equal weight35-0.14 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Pelicans54c285.65$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.3184443%363 W · 481 L-40.5wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-17.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x849f…0665backed Pelicans51c267.71$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.3495047.2%448 W · 502 L-28.5wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7793…33a6backed Rockets47c263.83$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$140.0329344.4%130 W · 163 L-7.5wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-5.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Rockets48c259.41$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$136.022,34648.7%1,142 W · 1,204 L-14.3wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Pelicans50c250$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1255,05350.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L+110.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6c1d…1f8fbacked Pelicans51c246.12$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.9849249.8%245 W · 247 L-0.5wins0.00per pick50cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe414…c341backed Rockets47c230.32$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.0381349.4%402 W · 411 L+5.5wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3a51…b2b6backed Pelicans52c229.45$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.3189853.1%477 W · 421 L+21.4wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+2.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2db1…45e5backed Pelicans53c226.93$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12024849.6%123 W · 125 L+0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2d6a…8addbacked Rockets48c224.99$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.541,39946.4%649 W · 750 L-13.5wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Rockets48c221.75$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.535,84446.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x26dd…0249backed Rockets48c208.33$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.3341449.3%204 W · 210 L+5.0wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xccd5…7a74backed Rockets49c203.61$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.07933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.12per pick46cpaid-36.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa3fa…cdb2backed Pelicans54c200$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1083256.3%18 W · 14 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick60cpaid-5.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeaff…5f75backed Pelicans52c199.99$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1043246.9%15 W · 17 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-0.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7b2c…af48backed Rockets47c199.96$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.981,47551.3%756 W · 719 L+35.2wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc49f…9e05backed Rockets46c194.71$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.1458449.7%290 W · 294 L+10.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.