MLB · resolved market
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. New York Mets: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3e9086dfd186feece08206d03fff670744ee96283f4f3225a980582edbc8d1cd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $271,133
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $271,724
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $271,133 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb45a…192cbacked Over | 51c | 200,000$102,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101,999.97 | 411 | 49.1%202 W · 209 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Under | 49c | 101,490$49,730 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51,759.8 | 1,041 | 50.1%522 W · 519 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6ae…4df8backed Under | 49c | 75,000$36,750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38,250 | 78 | 39.7%31 W · 47 L | -6.0wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5c…126ebacked Under | 49c | 61,224$30,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31,224.49 | 74 | 41.9%31 W · 43 L | -5.5wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x777d…5143backed Over | 51c | 46,525$23,728 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23,727.74 | 88 | 56.8%50 W · 38 L | +6.6wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +20%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8cdc…b83fbacked Over | 51c | 12,114$6,178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,178 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -3.9wins | -0.21per pick | 42cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Under | 49c | 10,000$4,900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,099.99 | 479 | 53.2%255 W · 224 L | +18.0wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc49f…9e05backed Under | 49c | 7,000$3,430 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,570 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x617b…a499backed Under | 49c | 3,000$1,470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,530 | 619 | 47.7%295 W · 324 L | -1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 52c | 1,422$739 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$739.46 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 49c | 1,294$634 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$660.04 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 32c | 1,205$385 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$385.3 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…8abdbacked Over | 51c | 1,022$521 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$521 | 680 | 53.2%362 W · 318 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc18…2ce9backed Over | 51c | 1,010$515 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$515.1 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Under | 48c | 816.18$392 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$424.41 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69c2…40cfbacked Over | 60c | 807.63$481 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480.95 | 182 | 39.6%72 W · 110 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Under | 46c | 697.66$319 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$378.38 | 1,572 | 48.3%759 W · 813 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 42c | 644.59$273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$371.94 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 58c | 549.73$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.37 | 1,865 | 52%970 W · 895 L | +50.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0dad…4855backed Under | 49c | 500$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255 | 210 | 52.9%111 W · 99 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b97…6084backed Under | 51c | 410$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201 | 591 | 50.3%297 W · 294 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Over | 49c | 400.74$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.36 | 1,292 | 50.2%648 W · 644 L | +18.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e5…2d3abacked Over | 51c | 392.16$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 940 | 34.3%322 W · 618 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 68c | 368.79$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.43 | 155 | 50.3%78 W · 77 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 47c | 324.55$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.49 | 678 | 49.3%334 W · 344 L | +7.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a96…0d7cbacked Over | 55c | 312.67$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.13 | 33 | 63.6%21 W · 12 L | +4.5wins | +0.14per pick | 50cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8393…4f91backed Under | 68c | 312.03$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.39 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Over | 51c | 294.12$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 1,708 | 49.9%852 W · 856 L | -17.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8632…4696backed Under | 49c | 216.99$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.66 | 144 | 44.4%64 W · 80 L | -7.0wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Over | 37c | 202.13$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.77 | 1,723 | 50.3%867 W · 856 L | +55.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca4…aa92backed Under | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 100 | 57%57 W · 43 L | +6.2wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeaff…5f75backed Under | 49c | 200$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +53.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe226…95a5backed Over | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 54 | 51.9%28 W · 26 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd8c…f75abacked Over | 51c | 194.69$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5407…dbc0backed Over | 22c | 159.1$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +2.8wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +61.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7583…0469backed Over | 51c | 156.86$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…4727backed Under | 49c | 135$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.85 | 750 | 49.7%373 W · 377 L | +7.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0056…a7f7backed Under | 49c | 109.31$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.75 | 144 | 42.4%61 W · 83 L | -9.9wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf6c4…df5fbacked Under | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.04 | 398 | 50.3%200 W · 198 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf879…820ebacked Under | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 63 | 47.6%30 W · 33 L | +4.7wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Over | 53c | 99.67$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.61 | 2,261 | 45.4%1,026 W · 1,235 L | +57.4wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8726…0f36backed Under | 49c | 98$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.98 | 34 | 64.7%22 W · 12 L | +5.3wins | +0.15per pick | 49cpaid | +31%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 51c | 92$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.92 | 465 | 47.1%219 W · 246 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70fc…ab12backed Over | 45c | 81.71$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.47 | 1,367 | 54.3%742 W · 625 L | +16.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Under | 42c | 76.16$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.22 | 1,269 | 47.4%602 W · 667 L | -31.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6859…fb90backed Under | 49c | 70.18$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.79 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5919…95acbacked Under | 49c | 56$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.56 | 114 | 54.4%62 W · 52 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19a8…b852backed Over | 51c | 54.32$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.7 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13e5…1ea5backed Under | 71c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.6 | 79 | 49.4%39 W · 40 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea74…cf99backed Over | 51c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 135 | 60%81 W · 54 L | +15.6wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked Over | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 509 | 49.5%252 W · 257 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f1f…2afcbacked Over | 51c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +46.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x48d5…59e2backed Over | 51c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.3 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.12per pick | 53cpaid | -25%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc33d…0d40backed Over | 33c | 49.97$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.72 | 430 | 43%185 W · 245 L | -13.6wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8941…83d7backed Over | 51c | 44$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.44 | 153 | 51.6%79 W · 74 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 27c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 1,927 | 17.2%331 W · 1,596 L | -320.3wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x782b…ff64backed Over | 42c | 40$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.7 | 508 | 60.2%306 W · 202 L | +29.7wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd4d5…a8dabacked Over | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 209 | 55.5%116 W · 93 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe33d…9512backed Under | 48c | 36.71$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.99 | 172 | 44.2%76 W · 96 L | -7.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x70b1…73b2backed Over | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | -5.0wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Under | 62c | 34$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.93 | 1,630 | 55.2%899 W · 731 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7be…908dbacked Under | 55c | 31.69$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.17 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Under | 44c | 28.61$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.02 | 105 | 39%41 W · 64 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 49c | 27$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.77 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a66…2c23backed Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 13 | 84.6%11 W · 2 L | +4.1wins | +0.31per pick | 53cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd4e2…59e1backed Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74c0…4b86backed Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50c3…ace1backed Over | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 866 | 53%459 W · 407 L | +16.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd650…8d74backed Over | 69c | 19$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.11 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | -3.3wins | -0.13per pick | 69cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x369e…d016backed Under | 71c | 18.31$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.31 | 115 | 60.9%70 W · 45 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbed…6221backed Under | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. New York Mets: O/U 7.5this page
- NRFI: Pittsburgh Pirates vs. New York MetsNo won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. New York MetsPittsburgh Pirates won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: New York Mets (-1.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.